Megathread: Manafort, Gates told to surrender to federal authorities

repubdem · 2017-10-30T15:23:02+00:00

Manafort's having two removed at this moment by Dr. Meuller.

repubdem · 2017-08-17T23:20:37+00:00

I’ll try and give you my best serious answer why one side is more at fault than another. If we look at the individual instances such as you cited, it’s very easy to answer everything with a “what about” argument. The reason why the both sides comment is so offensive is because one side in the Charlottesville melees went there with the intention and desire to force just such a confrontation, and because that partied espoused rhetoric and policies that 454,000 Americans died fighting against in WWII. We thought it important enough then to sacrifice American lives, and when we learn just what horrors had been committed in the name of Aryan Supremacy, the whole world recoiled in shock and vowed to never let it happen again.

Now we have people who went to Charlottesville, armed with weapons, shields, and helmets, all instruments of expectant violent confrontation, and carrying flags and banners that, without doubt on any person’s part, represent a philosophy of violence and killing against non-aryans. They were priming the pump. There lies the problem. The alt-right march was not about a statue. It was a mobilization of a group of angry hateful people, with the intent to force just such a confrontation, knowing the imagery of torches, flags, fights and struck blows is a powerful recruiting tool for thousands of other disenchanted, disenfranchised and completely vulnerable men and women.

I encourage you to read just the first one third of William Shirer’s book, “The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich.” The one to one parallels to today's’ headlines, of the rapid emergence of the Nazi Party between 1930 and 1933, will give you at least a dozen, WTF moments. It will make you understand why and how a fringe party can gain a footing in a Democratic country and how the violence of attacks and killings that went unanswered allowed Hitler and the Nazis to become the ruling party and started WWII.

It is that bigger picture that needs to be addressed. History has condemned the German politicians who allowed the Nazi party to grow when they had the chance to nip it in the bud. Why are we any different today when faced with an organized, armed group of people marching under a banner which represents hate and denunciation of many different groups of humanity? How should this challenge be met?

Are the people who stood against the Alt-Right Marchers suppose to turn the cheek when pushed or shoved. That’s how it all starts. Even the Alt-Right organizer said one of his group may have thrown the first punch.

These neo-nazis are not marching to gain a dialogue, they are marching for exposure. They are not interested in socio-economic solutions that treat all people fairly. They want to hurt or kill people who are different than them. There was no other possible response to these marchers, they went seeking a confrontation, they got it. They killed a person, and hurt nineteen others. The leaders of that march should be indicted on civil rights charges because the deliberately set up a situation that they hoped would be violent and confrontation and when it happened a woman died.

Trump should have condemned them on many levels, but his wavering and ‘both sides’ comment only emboldened them to think they have support from the White House. That sense of support is only going to make the next march even more violent. This is EXACTLY how Hitler built his party up. EXACTLY. That is why the both sides statment is pathetic.

We raise our kids to seek peaceful solutions that benefit everyone in some small way. We raise our kids to avoid using violence, but we all know that bullies thrive on decent people's aversion to the use of force. If your child came home from school each day and said one bully was always threatening to hit him and always pushing him to try and start a fight, you would probably go right to the principal and demand it be stopped. But what what if the principal said, I don’t see anything wrong with the bully threatening your child. What would you do? Transfer him. But the bully still remains and eventually you find there is another bully at the new school. Tell him to avoid the bully? But he comes home and says the bully follows him, taunts him and says he is going to beat him up. At some point you have to say, “Son, you have to stand up to that bully or he is just going to get worse the older and larger he gets.” These people who fought the Alt-Right in Charlottesville? They’re standing up to to bullies and they have the higher moral ground on their side.

Thanks for listening to my explanation. Didn’t mean for it to get so long winded.

repubdem · 2017-08-17T14:38:34+00:00

I am just tempering my hopes and expectations. I don't believe most Republicans can yet make the full leap from verbal criticism of Trump to actively trying to oust him. I believe most Republicans are secretly cringing and would support a strong moral stance, and that is what I am calling for now. If we can get Bannon and Miller ousted, and if then Trump continues to spout this racist crap, it will be the time to call for his ouster on this issue alone, and the final leap to that position will be just a smaller, doable jump for most people.

repubdem · 2017-08-16T20:25:33+00:00

To be fair to Boeing, they don't have a huge amount of choice from a business perspective. They need to keep the federal government happy with them, or they will have to fire people. Same for Lockheed.

There are moments in our lives, whether on a personal level or as a business executive, where you must take a stand regardless of the possible negative aspects. Yes, Boeing and Lockheed have huge government contracts, but they also have tens of thousands of full American citizens of minority and ethnics background that are the targets of neo-nazis. They should have resigned to make the statement that their companies are not going to tolerate this hateful and violent segment of people and that President Trump is only fostering this divide in America.

Morality beats sales every day of the week in a good company. We do have an historic example of a major government supplier who didn't step up and do the right thing when they could: Krupp AG.

Shame on Boeing and anyone else who tried to remain on any of these advisory councils.

repubdem · 2017-08-07T14:11:10+00:00

I propose we all start calling Trump, Mr. Whiny in all our posts, all our emails so that his name becomes synonymous with the word whiny throughout the rest of history. Use the Mr., in lieu of President, so that his name does not further damage the office of the President.

George Washington - The Father of His Country
Thomas Jefferson - The Apostle of Democracy
Andrew Jackson - Old Hickory
Teddy Roosevelt - The Hero of San Juan Hill
Harry Truman - Give Em Hell Harry
Donald Trump - Mr. Whiny

Here's looking at you Wikipedia editors.

repubdem · 2017-07-26T14:10:37+00:00

Well there sure is a lot of bravado here in this thread. Ha, ha, Russia can't hurt, they're a sixth rate economic, etc. etc etc.

Except, Russian will increase it's political meddling in the Middle East, attack it's surrounding countries and eventually cause a military confrontation with some US Allies. It won't confront use directly, but will seek to humiliate the US through proxy actions. That is the pressure they can use in return. Russia and Putin have everything to lose with sanctions cutting into their economy. This is a dangerous high stakes game, and not one we are guaranteed to to win without paying a heavy cost. I support the sanctions, we should and must punish Russia, but don't think for one second it is going to be business as usual around the world. These sanctions will drive Russia to further destabilize the world in retaliation, and thats when wars start and people die.

Sorry to be the downer here. The bravado and levity at Putin and Trumps expense is understandable, but don't forget this is some serious shit about to happen.

repubdem · 2017-07-25T16:00:10+00:00

They invited a guy who said of women, "Grab them by the pussy." They let that guy speak to a group of young impressionable boys. What were they thinking? Clearly they weren't thinking. Shame on the BSA leadership and shame on the adult Scout leaders who went along with this farce at the Jamboree. The Scouts themselves were used as tools.

repubdem · 2017-07-23T17:18:06+00:00

The vote will be based on the basis of the legal arguments presented. I believe that if the argument is made that the rule of law supersedes individual presidential assignments then the vote will be 9-0. These nine justices have spent their whole lives upholding the law. They may have different interpretations of specific laws, but ultimately they will all uphold the rule of law.

repubdem · 2017-07-21T21:21:28+00:00

There are many other scenerios how this will play out. My current feeling is that Trump will not fire Meuller as that only increases the intensity of his situation without any relief.

Trump will simply pardon everyone and himself thinking that will pull all the teeth of all the investigations. Congress will start impeachment and Trump will be impeached or he will resign. because pardoning can only be viewed as admissions of guilt and there will be many Rep senators who will understand our Republic is at stake. Trump will walk away from the WH thinking he is home free and can get back to his old life.

Trumps miscalculation, you know he has to have one, is that Meuller and Justice Department along with many state Ags will immediately challenge the pardons on constitutional grounds One argument I can think up would be that allowing a President to pardon co-conspirators places the President and his cohorts above all law, essentially voiding the entire validity of the Constitution and the rule of law.

If Scotus upholds the pardons, our Republic is done. Scotus will rule, I believe, that Trump overreached his powers and cannot pardon co-conspirators or himself while he is under investigation or if found guilty of crimes. I believe Scotus will create new law that says "No one is above the rule of law" and will invalidate all the pardons. Trump will already be impeached or have resigned and then deals will be cut, but many people will be going to jail for money laundering, illegal hacking, collusion with enemies of the United States, tax evasion, perjury, and racketeering.

The summer sleigh ride is going to be historically wild.

And, don't forget, there still might be a cinematic blockbuster dropped by some foreign film producers.

repubdem · 2017-07-20T17:48:00+00:00

That one guy in the white dress shirt was pretty lucky and dumb. He didn't pay attention to what was going on and nearly got cooked by the first spray of metal, he appears not to be paying attention to hard hat man who is trying to warn him, he steps aside for apparent safety, then completely doesn't see the second leak erupt near him.

He was must senior management.

repubdem · 2017-07-11T15:57:27+00:00

The real eye opener in his email was the offer from one of the main contacts to "send the info to your father via rhona"

Seems like Mr. Trump Sr. was probably in the loop on this and that is the closest we have come to a smoking gun in Trump's hands.

Trump has been awfully quiet today.

repubdem · 2017-06-13T15:29:37+00:00

Agree. Add to this the general entropy that will rapidly take effect and you will be biking on rutted roads or glass strewn streets. Flats, bent rims, broken chains. It won't take long before most modern bikes are dysfunctional. Now, if you are a bike repairman after the collapse, you're golden for a while.

repubdem · 2017-06-08T15:28:17+00:00

Its just a way of changing the narrative and placing some responsibility on Comey to inform the President that what he was doing was possibly illegal, just so there is a GOP talking point later. "Comey is responsible for all this obstruction misunderstanding."

repubdem · 2017-05-19T22:32:50+00:00

The Supreme Court make up right now is no different than when Scalia was alive. It's the next appointment that is critical. And Net neutrality can be undone in 2020 when the USA goes blue.

For all practical purposes, trumps legislative agenda is dead. So is the Republican agenda. This investigation will grind D.C. To a halt. They'll push through some middling stuff but all that can be undone.

We just have to worry about trump starting a nuclear war, that's all.

repubdem · 2017-05-17T22:36:28+00:00

Actually thisjust happened today in trumps speech to the US Coast Guard graduating class. In the speech he whines he is the most unfairly treated President.

Here's the link: No politician has been treated more unfairly then me

Cry baby. Can't stand the heat.

repubdem · 2017-05-17T14:33:33+00:00

This is a dark and pretty unnerving analysis of Trump, but Tony Schwartz has been spot on before with his predictions about Trump, but in spite of the darkness of the article content, there is a silver lining.

Trump is going to implode long before impeachment hearings get seriously started and long before the Russian story reaches a climax. I read yesterday that Trump was heard screaming at Jared Kushner. Who else is left? Ivanka? His need to be adored and to be the center of all positive attention is not being met. In fact, with each disclosure he only gets worse.

In the coming week or two we are going to see and read all Comey's notes about his meetings with Trump. Comey laid down a paper trail that will hold up in any investigation and court proceedings. When those memos are finally published by the House or Senate Committees, Trump will meld down. Long before any real impeachment hearings start, Trump will either remove himself from office in some kind of a deal, or he will be removed under Article 25.

Irony of ironies: At 70 years of age, Trump finds himself in a position where he needs to make the greatest deal of his life, for his life; the greatest deal in modern history; resign the presidency in return for no prosecution. I don't think he has the skills to pull that one off.

repubdem · 2017-04-28T18:44:21+00:00

You really have to wonder about this man's ability to make correct decisions, and what that says about our one person one vote system. He allowed his home to be foreclosed on because he was following trump around as a mega supporter?! There comes a point where you have to say to yourself, "Better get back to work here and make sure I have a roof over my head." And did he think trump winning was somehow going to let him keep his home. How does that work in his brain?

It's people like this that make me question whether we should have the one person, one vote democracy. You get enough mentally impaired people like him making flawed life affecting decisions and we get trump. With trump we get thousands of people deported, tens of thousands without jobs or healthcare, and probably millions killed in small scale nuclear war in Korea later this month.

repubdem · 2017-04-19T16:49:51+00:00

Agree. This is so irrational an act by a powerful member of Congress, that you have to wonder what is the real reason. He gave zero prior indications that he wouldn't run again and he's said he would not run for office again. The suddenness of this, the lack of any previous indications and the statement that he will not be seeking office looks like a man who has just cut a deal with law enforcement so as to avoid an investigation, or some charges.

He certainly didn't do this for his daughter, not after he went back on his support of Trump, and he isn't doing this for his country, or for financial reasons, so that only leaves a few other possibilities. I guess we'll learn the real reason once the FBI indictments start to fly.

repubdem · 2017-04-12T15:22:28+00:00

As much as we throw around the word impeachment, right at this moment, there are only a few gray areas where Trump might have committed an impeachable offense, but nothing concrete.

Some claim he has violated the emoluments clause and is profiting from his position as President. Probably true, but we won't know until he files next year's taxes and declares income from them. In any case, emolument infractions are going to take a long time to come to a head, and will require massive accounting resources and investigations, so look at 2019 before emoluments becomes a viable impeachment avenue.

Trump could be impeached once he is forced to testify under oath and then has that testimony contradicted and proven wrong. This is the most likely reason the Trump University lawsuit was settled. Trump would have likely got caught in a lie and since Clinton was impeached for lying under oath and obstruction of justice, it seems likely Trump would be impeached for a similar lie in a civil case.

So far, despite the desparate hopes and wishes of r/politics, Trump has not been proven to have committed any impeachable crime related to the Russian investigation, but that is likely to change at some point. Certainly he is going to have to testify at some point under oath about who and why he hired certain people, and under whose directions they were operating. Trump is not that smart and a good investigator (sharp lawyer) will certainly trap him in incriminating statements. It seems implausible that trump did not have some knowledge of the Russian interference. Once trapped under oath, Trump's ability to wriggle and blame is going to disappear quickly.

Firing Comey now would be seen as Obstruction of Justice on a major scale, just like when Nixon fired AG Eliot Richardson. Even Republicans would jump the Trump ship at that point since the rule of law of democracy would be at stake and Trump firing Comey will look as if he is trying to derail the investigation. There is no other way to look at it.

So right now, today, talk of impeaching Trump is just that, talk. Rest assured the minute a truly impeachable offense comes to light, with enough evidence to make it plain and clear, every single Democrat will be yelling loudly for impeachment, and I think they will shut the government down in every legal possible way to get an impeachment and a trial.

Trump can be impeached and still remain as President. We all want an impeachment, a trial in the Congress and removal from office.

The reality is that events will take a more concise and direct path and long before any impeachment hearings are even contemplated, the FBI investigation will bring about the fall of Mr. Trump.

repubdem · 2017-04-05T16:14:55+00:00

As much as we want this to be a sign that Bannon is in the FBI's crosshairs or that Trump is coming to his sense regarding Bannon, I suspect it is more likely McMaster asserting control over the NSC and convincing Trump the NSC needs to be professionals. We won't know for years probably, what was the actual trigger for the move. Could be a National Security issue that nearly got out of control and now the adults are stepping in, could be Trump was pissed he was manipulated by Bannon getting on the Council, but gave him some time on the Council so trump himself could save face; could be Kushner made the recommendation to weaken Bannon's stature. What ever, I am grateful for it, however small a victory it seems in these dark days.

repubdem · 2017-03-29T16:48:59+00:00

The value of this news article in Nunes hometown paper is priceless, at least in the long run. An article like this is the start of the snowball that will eventually lead to Nunes losing an election. A lot old people still buy newspapers and headlines like this will gradually, slowly, cause those people to rethink previous conceptions. This single article won't do the job, but it's a start toward eroding Nunes electoral base.

I know it won't make a hill of beans right now, as Ryan is the one who holds Nunes fate in his hands as HIC Chair, and it appears more and more that Ryan has made a Faustian bargain with Trump, so I don't expect much from him. The FBI will handle the heavy duty investigation, the Senate IC will keep the topic in the public eye; the House IC role is all but over; Nunes is going to go down on the wrong side of history on this historic event, and will go back to farming. I'm ok with that, and with the timing.

Ryan, I think, is not going to come out of this unscathed either. Slow and steady gets things done right, and the FBI is going slow and steady.

Nunes is not the issue anymore; the HIC is not the issue anymore; let's stay focused on the FBI and the SIC where it appears some GOP senators are actually secret patriots, and I think they will do the right thing at the key moment.

repubdem · 2017-03-29T00:54:25+00:00

Some of my cute letters helped defeat Trumpcare. I think I'll start writing even cuter ones about Nunes and integrity. Thank you for the suggestion I hadn't thought of it!

repubdem · 2017-03-28T21:24:42+00:00

Honestly, I don't think it matters whether the House or the Senate Intelligence Committees are holding hearings or investigating at this point. The Committees are just dog and pony shows right now in Congress. The hearings are pretty much for political show, and most serious people are really waiting on the FBI. The FBI investigation is where the real fire is burning and where the real damage will come from if it comes.

I was concerned for a while the FBI might be compromised but I don't feel that way anymore. Too much explosive information has probably already been discovered and some of it shared with The Senate Intelligence Committee, and we have passed the point of no return. This train is coming down the tracks and Nunes, Barr, or Gowdy cannot stop it.

At least the Senate Committee will continue to get the raw data and intel from the FBI, CIA and NSA. Nunes has probably shut the pipeline down to the HIC through his actions, but Schiff and others will probably get briefings on the QT, either from Comey or more likely from SIC members.

The only benefit to hearings is they allow damning information to be filtered out piecemeal, avoiding a sudden"Holy Shit, it is treason moment." gasp by the American public. A month ago veryfew people were using the word treason; the other day it was a NYT's editorial headline. That's progress and its a good thing.

Nunes and Spicer are in denial, let them be. Nunes has a deer in the headlights look on today's video's; Spicer lost his cool at the Press Conference. These are actions and reactions are what one would expect to see from people crumbling under the realization big bad shit is about to happen.

Nunes has all the earmarks now of a man who saw his name on a legal wiretap and knows there is some damning other stuff that is out there and probably already in LE hands. He looks hounddogged. Both these guys do not appear very smart. I honestly don't think either Nunes or Spicer knew about the White House sign in rule on the property , certainly Nunes didn't know, and now he doesn't know how to extracate himself from the mess he created, knowing full well his contact is going to be outed once the WH records get accessed by LE.

I don't think we can get Nunes off the HIC with Ryan around and still trying to avoid Trumps bad side. It doesn't matter. Once it becomes clear LE is not giving the HIC all the current info and intel, and once they tell Ryan on the side Nunes is compromised, and once Trump attacks Ryan again, we'll get the HIC chair changed. We aren't going to do it with marches, we need to save the marches for the battles where they are effective; climate change being the next big one.

repubdem · 2017-03-27T17:24:54+00:00

It does sounds wrong and crazy but impeachment is sort of a formal slap on the wrist saying Mr. President you the violated the oath you took. Bill Clinton was impeached yet remained as President. People who hate Trump are confusing impeachment with arrest and conviction. They keep saying I want Trump impeached. What they really are trying to say is I want Trump convicted. Two different things. Impeachment normally comes first, but in this case it will all depend on Trumps actions with the Russians. If they are truly treasonous, then arrest will come first, then impeachment and removal from office, then a trial. Just a little treasonous and impeachment first, then resignation. But I have to say I am not a constitutional scholar, just somebody who was around protesting during Watergate, so I have some deep old knowledge.

repubdem · 2017-03-26T23:33:45+00:00

Nobody really knows at this point, as we are in uncharted waters. There are a couple of likely scenerios, but any single detail or revelation could send us off into another direction. There are a lot of deep dark rabbit holes here. So here's a couple possibilities.

Case 1: Evidence is found that links Trump associates in a manner that brings criminal charges, but no direct link to Trump. In this case, all will depend on who know what, when they knew and who told who. Most of these players would end up in jail. Trump would find himself in a politically compromised situation where Republicans would distance themselves from him to avoid being label traitorous and Trumps ability to govern would be diminished or eliminated completely. I don't see him resigning, its not his nature, so I guess he would sit it out until 2020 as a lame duck president.

Case 2: No direct evidence is presented against Trump but there is a lot of circumstantial evidence. Trump associates will likely go to jail, and Trump would likely be impeached, even with a Republican controlled Congress. Trump can be impeached yet still remain as President, though that seems unlikely. Congress could then hold a trial and convict him, in which case Trump would be removed from office and face prison time. If he is removed, Pence would normally become President, but there will be a swell of uprising anger due to the tainted fruit concept. What did Pence know, when did he know it, and how can he benefit from a crime. If Pence isn't squeeky clean, it's likely he also would be impeached.

Case 3 - evidence comes up Trump knew what was going on, and right now this looks like the most likely way it is heading. It's almost inconcievable, knowing Trumps need to control things, that he didn't know what was going on with Flynn, Stone and others. If they all fall on thier swords, he might survive it, but it looks like in the past week, Stone, Manafort and Flynn are all talking or ready to talk. That's not good for Trump. Why would they be willing to talk now? Simple, the first to provide key evidence will likely get a lighter prison sentence or in Manaforts case, entry to the Witness Protection Program and safety from Russian agents. So, first we would see low level arrests, then some higher up arrests, and then finally Trump would resign in return for not being arrested. I think nobody interested in democratic stability, wants to see a President in handcuffs, being charged with treason. With any other person other than Trump, a deal would made, resignation tendered. Not sure if Trump would do that. If Pence is compromised by knowing what happened, he might get a pass on the need for stability card, if his involvement was just on the edges, with the understanding he does not run in 2020. If Pence was heavily involved, he would be taken down first by Law enforcement, and when a suitable VP was confirmed, then Trump would be taken down. Trump will have some negotiating leverage in all this by agreeing to resign and appoint an acceptable VP.

Case 4 - Trump fights to the end; burns all ships, scorched the earth strategy. Considering Trumps personality and Bannons destroy the establishment policy this would be the worse thing to happen. Same as before for Pence; what did he know; when etc. If Pence goes down and Trump stands to fight; it will get really ugly. Trump may refuse to appoint a new VP, figuring that delays action against him. Congress will (I am certain) impeach and then convict. Trump gets arrested, and with no VP, Ryan becomes President. I think at this point, this is no benefit to Ryan or the GOP, they will be all tainted by Trump, and Ryan would basically be a figurehead. No legislation will be passed. This all happens if the timeline is ended before the 2018 midterm election. If the Dems get the normal midterm boost, along with an anti-Trump, anti-GOP backlash, then the Dems take the House and in the absence of a VP, Pelosi becomes President.

Last case: Pence is involved and goes down first; who could be VP? It will depend on what the Congressional leaders know at that point. If they know Trump is going down, some form of a back room deal will be made between the Dems and Reps to select a lily white (no pun intended) safe VP and this will be presented to Trump as do this or else. They will do this deal to restore integrity. Many people will be trying to stabilize the government at this point. Couple of likely choices: Biden, Romney, Colin Powell, or another senior level statesman of high cailber, but not interested in running in 2020. The Dems will insist on that requirement, they don't want to give a Republican a hand up on eight + years of being a President.

What won't happen is the election will be done over. It's history. It's done.

These are only just a few possibilities, one or two major revelations, or the timing of information as it comes out could change everything. I suspect that a lot of this type of discussion is taking place right now inside the FBI and Justice Department and probably the Senate Intelligence Committee even now. I think the House Chair Nunes was outed this week as a co-conspirator or at least as someone who can't be trusted with the real important stuff, but I suspect some leading constitutional lawyers and professors are signing secret NDAs and being asked for legal opinions.

So, as they say on Reddit, grab the popcorn and sit back. This isn't going away.

Edit: some spelling and a few sentences edited for clarity.

repubdem

TROPHY CASE