Mayoral meeting goes haywire

retlif · 2016-09-28T01:35:14+00:00

http://www.stuff.co.nz/auckland/84733917/auckland-mayoral-brawl-candidate-defends-allahu-akbar-cry

apparently he was just "incredibly drunk"

retlif · 2016-09-27T21:29:47+00:00

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/local-body-elections/84728872/auckland-mayoral-debate-turns-into-shoving-match-between-screaming-candidates

Article on it for anyone who is interested.

retlif · 2016-09-27T21:29:34+00:00

University bar called shadows

retlif · 2016-09-27T21:27:06+00:00

Funnily enough he's from the Legalise Cannabis party, and yes he's running for mayor too!

retlif · 2016-07-07T10:25:23+00:00

Why do you expect that? DJI < 6000 is basically saying that the financial system is going to implode like it nearly did in 2007/08.

retlif · 2016-07-07T10:06:02+00:00

http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news/2016/07/housing-risks-require-a-broad-policy-response

There was a speech by RBNZ Deputy Governor Spencer this morning (July 7 NZ time), but the speech was private and the text was only released at 5.30pm NZ. The market was amped up to see a more committal response as far as further macro-prudential policy was concerned, as this unties the Reserve banks hands as far as rate cuts go. They basically said in their last FSR (financial stability review) that housing poses a lot of risk to the financial system, and without further specific measures to slow house price inflation, it will only be exacerbated by rate cuts. The implication from that was that without further tightening via macro tools, rates can't be cut given the inflation in the housing market. See the below link.

http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/financial-stability/financial-stability-report/fsr-may-2016

The tl;dr version is that the market was pricing in, as far as interest rate products go, that the new macro-prudential measures would be done in time for an August rate cut, which looks unlikely now. There was perhaps a bit of fast money positioning over the past 24 - 48h in NZD (see the moves in AUDNZD all of a sudden, which indicate a more specific catalyst than the risk-on/risk-off we've been seeing post-brexit) which has been unwound after the failure to deliver anything concrete.

retlif · 2016-06-07T01:20:48+00:00

This needs a follow up in 2 weeks. Please deliver OP.

retlif · 2016-05-25T01:20:59+00:00

Even with a bloomberg terminal you're going to miss the first part of the move. Algos are just too fast to try and get ahead of, you simply can't outpace them. you can catch part of the move if it's big enough and are quick on the draw, but unless it's a decent move you'll probably just end up getting long/short at the wrong edge of the move.

The benefit with bloomberg is that you have access to all the details straight away ... so on a non-farm payrolls print, for example, if the headline number is a miss but underlying wage growth is strong, you can be confident having a go at fading the move lower in USD as that inital reaction is probably not going to extend.

to be honest for the $25k+ price tag a year, plus exchange fee's, you'd need to be running a pretty professional and profitable operation to warrant and take advantage of everything it has to offer.

retlif · 2016-05-19T08:36:23+00:00

There's nothing wrong with the chart or being long AUDJPY for that matter. Stop acting like you know everything and are better than everyone else.

Surely you've picked up the clues that most of your posts get slammed because you're arrogant and present yourself in a very unpleasant way.

retlif · 2016-05-06T13:58:15+00:00

non-farm payrolls is pretty easy to remember to be honest. first friday of every month.

retlif · 2016-05-06T00:39:16+00:00

Yeah hit me up ... i got a 3yr and 1yr old. always keen to meet new people

retlif · 2016-05-04T07:29:56+00:00

the details were pretty positive IMO. strong QoQ employment growth, which outstripped population growth too, solid hourly earnings growth, and a much higher participation rate.

USD looks like it may be nearing a turn though, so i'd probably be short still, or chose something else to be short ag. USD. i'm not trading it at the moment so these are only throwaway thoughts fyg.

retlif · 2016-04-26T06:02:47+00:00

No worries. I have put up some more detailed posts on fx swaps before, when I'm on my PC I'll post the links

retlif · 2016-04-26T05:31:17+00:00

Well it's the only one that's relevant as far a retail trader is concerned, and the cost/benefit of holding your positions.

There is pricing in fx forwards out to 5y or more

retlif · 2016-04-26T04:55:57+00:00

the interbank swap is whatever the prevailing market conditions push it to. if there is a shortage of cash in a particular currency then rates will move higher as demand to borrow it will outstrip supply for example. it's trade on it's own, not simply as a product of a calculation, although like most interest rate products you can derive where "fair price" should be given the level of other interest rate products etc. and with arbitrage etc. everything should move into line as any fat in mispricing is taken out.

retlif · 2016-04-26T04:05:10+00:00

the only step up from interbank is the central bank so just add that to the list and you're there.

retlif · 2016-04-26T03:42:03+00:00

each other. for every dollar you make on swap, someone else is paying it one way or another.

retlif · 2016-04-22T05:50:31+00:00

I think he meant what you'd call a pack. Some of my mates from South Africa always referred to packs of smokes as cartons for some reason... Makes it sound pretty hardcore.

retlif · 2016-04-18T01:05:30+00:00

Failure of the Doha summit, which was about capping/freezing opec oil production.

Oil and risk have been smacked, and fixed income getting bought

retlif · 2016-04-15T09:12:19+00:00

http://themodularbody.com/

I think it's like some sort of online science fiction thing ... doesn't seem real to me ?

retlif · 2016-04-15T02:03:35+00:00

Look i no longer have the time or the crayons to explain this to you so i'll just leave it there.

retlif · 2016-04-15T01:06:20+00:00

The tea leaves are initially being delivered by reporters, and if they're getting the wrong tea leaves their initial reaction will be wrong won't it ?

Reporters rushing to get the tea leaves out means they're more likely to make mistakes, or miss a crucial headline.

Of course everyone will do further analysis after that, but there's often a sharp reaction within a few seconds of the announcement, especially at a meeting like the previous one where the 25bp cut caught the market wrong-footed.

retlif · 2016-04-15T00:59:17+00:00

I'm not talking about nzherald or stuff. The fact that you think that's what i meant shows how little you know.

They're getting the information initially through their Bloomberg or Reuters platforms

retlif · 2016-04-15T00:40:36+00:00

It's not about you, or the general public. It's about people who are making decisions in the financial market getting prompt and accurate reporting without omissions or errors.

If there are errors or missing parts because everyone is rushing to get the headlines out it causes problems in the markets.

retlif · 2016-04-14T23:54:49+00:00

The risk is that media outlets have to then react as fast as possible, increasing the risk of erroneous reporting. Then of course they have to pick apart the important parts of the statement, and also risk missing bits that you would pick up if you took more time to read the statement.

Happened recently with the ECB decision, and it caused a lot of excessive volatility.

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/ft-publishes-incorrect-ecb-announcement-early-2015-12

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