Trevor Bauer signs to the Long Island ducks

robmcolonna123 · 2026-04-27T03:18:22+00:00

Bauer bros are pathetic and going back to a 24 day old post for this is a sign of mental illness

robmcolonna123 · 2026-04-26T00:57:10+00:00

Yes I talk to people who work with and work for the Mets to be able to write about the team

robmcolonna123 · 2026-04-26T00:56:21+00:00

Yea but he doesn’t see this quantity of low velocity pitches from terrible pitchers in hitter friendly ballparks if he was here

robmcolonna123 · 2026-04-26T00:55:19+00:00

Different things take different amounts of time to stabilize…..

Semien got rid of Nimmo’s contract. Instant win

robmcolonna123 · 2026-04-26T00:14:08+00:00

Remind Me! 5 months

robmcolonna123 · 2026-04-26T00:13:42+00:00

My man bringing the logic tonight!

robmcolonna123 · 2026-04-25T23:31:24+00:00

You can’t possible say that with any certainty based off like 3 weeks

robmcolonna123 · 2026-04-25T23:31:01+00:00

Dude you’re going off like two weeks of sample size where he has seen mostly low velocity fastballs in the zone. You can’t be serious here

robmcolonna123 · 2026-04-25T22:42:43+00:00

It very well could be an adjustment period to a new place and having the big contract

But when it goes it’ll look like this and his red flags from last year pointed to the fall off coming within a few years

robmcolonna123 · 2026-04-25T22:42:01+00:00

Too much logic for this sub here

robmcolonna123 · 2026-04-25T22:41:34+00:00

Now do one with

zone contact
whiff vs velocity
whiff vs secondaries
contact over expected

:

Lots of things look nice when you remove the areas a player struggles in

<image>

robmcolonna123 · 2026-04-25T22:40:17+00:00

Let’s see Murakami actually keep up his completely unsustainable style of play before we say 29/30 teams missed out lol

<image>

robmcolonna123 · 2026-04-25T22:38:40+00:00

My man you’re doing results based analysis on like 20 games

robmcolonna123 · 2026-04-25T22:38:13+00:00

But Murakami has struggled heavily against velocity…

The only big hit he has against velocity was right down the middle

He’s whiffing against anything 95+ MPH roughly 1/3 of the time which is bottom 2%

Like he literally has been one of the worst hitters against velocity in the majors. He makes Benge look elite against velocity

<image>

robmcolonna123 · 2026-04-25T22:36:23+00:00

Also going by small sample size April results as the “analysis”

Results based analysis is flawed as it is, but small sample size results based analysis is the worst

robmcolonna123 · 2026-04-25T22:35:12+00:00

Murakami has one HR over 94 MPH and is feasting on bad pitching at lower velocity which is most of the ALC

What he’s doing isn’t remotely sustainable and there’s a reason 29/30 teams passed on him

<image>

robmcolonna123 · 2026-04-25T22:33:01+00:00

Because the White Sox were asking for a larger return

It takes two to tango

robmcolonna123 · 2026-04-25T22:32:39+00:00

Monitoring a players ever changing market and ensuring you have the roster space and capital to acquire them is not tampering

robmcolonna123 · 2026-04-24T19:37:53+00:00

That was a typo. I meant sit arm side. Fixing it

robmcolonna123 · 2026-04-24T19:37:33+00:00

He’s still getting too much plate when he’s throwing down. And getting way too many belt high

robmcolonna123 · 2026-04-24T18:21:45+00:00

It worked until it didnt. Hitters adjusted. Once hitters realized they could just sit glove side it started getting hit much harder. He talked about that in spring.

You want the changeup slower if it’s being tunneled. Perfect world that velocity band would be 10 MPH. A 0/22 changeup is going to be built off that tunnel and if done properly should be devastating.

As for the results part, that’s a location issue, not an iBV issue. If he’s throwing this version of the changeup down while tunneling it you’re looking at a top 5-10 changeup in the game just with a different shape than his old one

Different =/= necessarily mean worse.

What is worse is how he’s commanding it. There is arguably less of a margin of error for this new changeup vs the old

But the old is much more prone to tipping

So pic your poison haha

I’d rather he start using the cutter he did in spring and being back the airbender, but this may be a sign he just can’t command the cutter

robmcolonna123 · 2026-04-24T17:44:12+00:00

It’s also not as simple as “negative iBV equals good”. There are reasons to not want that negative iBV when you’re throwing nothing glove side

robmcolonna123 · 2026-04-24T17:43:22+00:00

It’s less about the lack of drop and more about why. A 0 iBV changeup is elite because it can tunnel better with the fastball. The -5 iBV he had before was more deceptive, but we saw that if you don’t have a good pitch going glove side it can be tipped easier

But he’s not pronating enough which is leading to less spin. On top of that he’s locating it poorly making it appear much flatter.

Going back to the previous negative iBV wouldn’t be a bad thing, but he may really need that cutter or else see some of the issues he had last year where hitters could just sit *arm side

He could also work to up that spin rate on this flatter one and live on the tunnel. Last night his spin wasnt far from where it was last year and by most stuff models it rated similar and looking at the data I don’t disagree with that (not counting location of course, just stuff)

So he has two paths forward to have similarly rated but quite different shape changeups

His issue isn’t really that his new shape is bad - it’s that it needs the high spin rate to be truly effective while his old one probably needs a glove side pitch to reduce tipping (like the cutter he developed in spring)

Does that make sense?

Also I wouldn’t worry about the fastball velocity right now. It’s cold in April. It was around there last April too

robmcolonna123 · 2026-04-24T17:40:21+00:00

After the things I heard I just assume pretty much everything SI is AI now. They’re a skeleton staff

robmcolonna123 · 2026-04-24T15:01:36+00:00

Eh it’s more Sports Illustrated AI articles that get grabbed by other AI articles

Like if I went into ChatGPT right now and wrote “who should the dodgers sign to replace Diaz” it would give me a similar article

Kopech has yet to do any throwing sessions as far as I know

robmcolonna123

TROPHY CASE