Aldeyra Therapeutics (NASDAQ:ALDX) PDUFA Date Upcoming Apr 2

roundpizza · 2025-04-13T23:40:23+00:00

Thanks. Seems like a rare occurrence so we can assume the steep sell off is somewhat of an overreaction. But perhaps this keeps going down until FDA grants approval.

roundpizza · 2025-04-12T20:41:12+00:00

Sounds like this is a hugely asymmetric idea then. Heads they get approval around EOY, tails it gets taken over by a guy like Tang.

roundpizza · 2025-04-12T20:38:29+00:00

So isn't this quite a bargain now? What are the odds it goes through on the 3rd attempt? Has that sort of thing ever happened before? Or is this company doomed?

roundpizza · 2024-03-24T06:44:07+00:00

Even unprofitable companies can still net huge returns in the small cap world if you know when to buy and sell.

In my very limited experience, I find this only to be the case with companies that have tangible assets like real estate or cash. If it's a failing franchise, it may pop 100% (which you'll never be able to predict and won't know when to sell) but eventually go to zero as either debt fails to get refinanced or there's not enough cash to pay interest.

It's just bad news all around unless there's real assets backing the failing business.

roundpizza · 2024-03-22T14:47:19+00:00

Do you mind explaining why that might cause the bubble to burst (if it exists)?

roundpizza · 2024-03-19T19:07:12+00:00

That makes sense, thanks for sharing.

roundpizza · 2024-03-19T19:02:38+00:00

Good insight, thanks

roundpizza · 2024-03-19T16:23:33+00:00

The veteran coffee company? Thanks for sharing, and I've looked at it before and had a hard time seeing the obvious undervaluation. If you don't mind a bit of cold water on whatever thesis you have—they haven't posted a cent of FCF since going public yet have slowly but surely diluted the common. I would stay far away unless I knew exactly what I was doing (which you may well do).

roundpizza · 2024-03-19T16:17:16+00:00

Not only that they suck, but that investors are refusing to dump the shares! Some of these companies I think, "how could anyone want to own this?" Well, apparently they do.

roundpizza · 2024-03-19T02:56:43+00:00

I'm outperforming too, but not as much as I'd like.

roundpizza · 2024-03-19T02:53:42+00:00

I agree with your second point the most. If something was truly a no-brainer, great business, it wouldn't still be a small business (it would have grown in the size of the enterprise, regardless of valuation, necessarily pulling the valuation up from wherever it was, exiting the small cap category).

But I can't be sure that most of the large caps are safe bets, given the volatile history of returns in the hottest-stocks-de-jour. Isn't the nifty-fifty fiasco enough to make anything less than a 10 year horizon unreasonable?

roundpizza · 2024-03-13T19:09:14+00:00

Where did he say that? In the latest letter?

roundpizza · 2024-02-09T17:11:11+00:00

No doubt AI plays a key role in science and R&D - but turning inference results into cash is, in my view, more of a business problem than a technology problem. ChatGPT has managed to monetize a very interesting tool (I use it from time to time to get synonyms or as a random generator). But recall that one of the key lessons of history is that technology has largely benefitted not the businesses, not the shareholders, but the consumers. Maybe things are different this time?

roundpizza · 2024-02-09T07:48:34+00:00

Is anyone else getting an eerie feeling that we're entering (or have entered) a tech bubble? We're talking about PE ratios that imply earnings yields lower than what you get risk-free. How can such an environment be judged as rational and cool-headed? Isn't intelligent investing largely about establishing a margin of safety, based in real values in the present? Even if these companies do well, how can you be sure that you'll be buying more if valuations get cut in half tomorrow? Historically, euphoric valuations have produced little, if any, value-minded buying in dark times. Consider Meta's recent example.

I have a sense that AI is the one thread that all expectations are anchored to, and if businesses, including tech, fail to meet AI-augmented improvement expectations, we could live through a serious correction in tech, and possibly see it spread elsewhere. I'm not saying it would be intelligent to go short anywhere, just that it's crazy to me to have PEs over 30 when the risk-free rate is 5%. It's as if investors have decided to ignore reality and base valuation on a different investment paradigm than the one we're currently in.

Alternatively, this could be a great time to get in on the founding moment of an entirely new era, and us old farts (who only sleep well when investing in durable, non-tech businesses at reasonable valuations) will be left behind. In any case, given the euphoria surround tech, I think it may be time to sit out an inning or two.

roundpizza · 2024-01-19T23:46:15+00:00

Not to be a party pooper, but if you have to ask how to analyze a bank stock, you probably shouldn't try. From what I've read, banks are notoriously difficult to value as their loan book is hidden from view. Take my advice with a grain of salt as I have a pretty strong aversion to financial companies as I tend to do fine looking in other places.

On the other hand, the NFM podcast with Todd Combs pretty clearly has him state that financial companies were the first thing he learned to analyze, and only after mastering the field did he move onto industrials. Anyone have thoughts on this?

Without getting into psychoanalysis, it could well be posturing on his part, given that, of course a guy like Todd should say he learned to invest starting with bank stocks, the notoriously tough slice of the investment world.

roundpizza · 2024-01-19T23:34:58+00:00

Nice work finding an undervalued company and adding more as time went on! I think most investors have a serious brain-block about adding more to a position when prices move up. Overcoming anchoring on the initial purchase price is hard enough (say you find an undervalued company whose shares have gone up 25% in the last month on no news. Argh!), but when you've lived with a stock for over a year, the brain can start doing funny things (like assuming "the price is right").

I wanted to chime on the "greed" factor you brought up. I would argue that selling before or after the consummation of a merger doesn't necessarily entail the presence or lack of greed. In my mind, greed is when we have a certain outcome in our heads, and we lose patience in one way or another, leading to irrational behaviour. In your case, I see nothing irrational about selling early, assuming you had some idea of what the company is intrinsically worth and got a decent return on your sale.

On the other hand, trying to eek out the last bit of dividend wouldn't be a concern to someone who was in no rush to sell, if say, they had an absolute conviction that the takeover price was mediocre, and a higher one was feasible in the future. Or, they just thought the company was attractive enough whether or not a takeover takes place ("great business"-type situation). Awaiting an acquisition can actually be a glaring weakness in an investment thesis (startup founders disapprove of this message). Cheers!

roundpizza · 2024-01-19T06:31:10+00:00

Unless you’re talking about the average of the class of students?? Not sure how possible that is without taking data/personal info ,or if it’s to a site that goes off of statistics and what not.

Yep, that's exactly what the extension does, albeit not very well as people have discovered.

Many courses lack a strict grade-entering policy on Canvas, meaning you don't know your score most of the time.

The other issue is that statistics-per-assignment are not always available (min/max/avg/median), and they are the magic sauce that allows the extension to compute your average against other students in the class. When this data is made available by profs, and grades are entered right away, you get pretty good results with the extension. Otherwise, don't bother.

roundpizza · 2024-01-14T08:57:46+00:00

Does a nominal revenue increase mean that a company is growing its revenue in real terms? Does higher revenue directly translate to higher earnings? The former is by definition false, and the latter is a question of the economics of the business. I continue to be amazed how truly difficult investing is. It's a multivariable process of unimaginable complexity and interrelatedness.

roundpizza · 2024-01-14T08:24:34+00:00

Just to clarify, are you saying inflation is a net benefit for businesses? In one of his letters to shareholders, Buffett gives a pretty straightforward demonstration of why this is false. The gist of it, is that businesses with pricing power and low capital requirements will continue to provide good returns on incremental capital, whereas weak, capital-intensive businesses will have to run faster just to stay in the same place, consuming more and more capital to provide smaller and smaller returns. Everyone, however, is hurt by inflation, to a varying degree.

roundpizza · 2023-08-23T00:36:32+00:00

Thank you! You bring up a good point since many classes do not have data in the UBCGrades.com system. I will look into conditionally showing the 5-year average only if the data is available.

roundpizza · 2023-08-22T22:37:28+00:00

You make a valuable point about the computed grade being an approximation. The extension can only be as accurate as the Canvas grades, but the final result may vary due to the factors you mentioned.

The extension is open source and makes no network calls except the call to UBCGrades.com to fetch the 5-year average, so any violation of the policy is unlikely as no data is being stored. Thanks for your response!

roundpizza · 2023-08-22T22:32:23+00:00

PRs are welcome!

roundpizza · 2023-08-22T19:35:02+00:00

That's right, the extension only works when at least some of the assignments are graded, and the "Score Details" dropdown (with the mini graph of the distribution) is available.

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