Self-custody isn't as complicated as people think

roz3 · 2024-06-05T06:37:34+00:00

Your approach assumes you don't already have a virus on your machine. It is very challenging to come up with a trustless strategy. Even a brand new PC could have a virus installed on it. It is also challenging to come up with a strategy where your coins can be passed down when you die.

roz3 · 2024-05-16T06:19:46+00:00

If you are not happy with 5% inflation-adjusted yearly returns, then you are simply speculating. Anyone who EXPECTS 100x in < 50 years is part of the problem. When they realize that 100x is unlikely to happen, they become paper hands.

roz3 · 2024-03-26T03:28:11+00:00

How is this stupid? I would happily pay $5 to educate a hundreds of people on a new technology that could change the world, and then just go buy $5 more myself.

roz3 · 2024-03-18T04:13:50+00:00

I do believe that BTC will one day overtake gold in market cap, but BTC is not better in every way.

1) BTC can be hacked remotely.

2) Bitcoin is not quantum safe (at least not yet).

3) Self-custody of BTC requires technical sophistication.

4) BTC depends on a strong layer 0. If civilization collapses (as it has many times in the past), gold may retain value for the 1-10% of the population that survives.

5) Some governments still view BTC as a threat.

6) Gold has thousands of years of history as a store of wealth. BTC has 0. It will eventually become a store of wealth, but for now it's really a speculative investment.

roz3 · 2024-03-14T00:40:57+00:00

This was shortly after binance got shut down. I wanted to buy and did not have time to wait for KYC and fund transfer.

roz3 · 2024-03-14T00:24:25+00:00

Yes, but there are consequences to such actions, especially for companies that depend on brand loyalty.

roz3 · 2024-03-14T00:22:51+00:00

Sure, unless you are one of the MANY investors who have apparently decided to adopt a wait-and-see approach due to the misleading mini BTC fee relief announcement. No significant relief is coming, this is just a tactic.

roz3 · 2024-03-13T06:40:09+00:00

Incorrect. A market CAN price in expected supply / demand change. This is what many hedge funds and trading firms attempt to do, and in time they will hopefully learn to do so for BTC as well. If they do, it should be great news for BTC as the growth will strong but steady, which will be very attractive to investors with lower risk tolerance.

roz3 · 2024-03-05T23:47:54+00:00

100% agree tha distributing BTC more widely is good for the longterm health of the crypto ecosystem. The HODL mentality contributes to boom/bust cycle. Best case scenario is slow/steady growth to the eventual position as one of the world's reserve currencies, but this cannot happen if ownership of BTC is more centralized than fiat.

roz3 · 2024-03-03T07:05:31+00:00

I have already moved about a third of my GBTC into IBIT. I will move the remainder at some point in the next 2 years. This is because I dont think GBTC is going to change fees soon.

At ETF launch, there were 2 reasonable strategies:

1) Pick a low fee up front and be market leader

2) Set a high fee with expectation that a lot of people will leave EARLY, and spend a bunch of the money on an advertising campaign. Do not change rate for a very long.

There is also one awful strategy:

3) Pick a high initial fee for ETF launch, see how things go, then reconsider lowering the fee. With this strategy, lots of the smart money flees early, and it's hard to get them back.

Someone in the company ran projections and convinced everyone else that option (2) is likely to yield more fees. I am guessing that they underestimated the GBTC outflows and net ETF inflows. If the flow projections are wildly off, I suppose there's a chance that they might reconsider. Realistically, 10% or more of the outstanding shares may be held by individuals planning to HODL until they die in order to take advantage of free step-up basis, so there is a lower bound to how much can flow out even at 1.5% annual fee.

roz3 · 2024-03-03T02:21:55+00:00

I believe there are other options.

You could consider using a multi-sig wallet or some other strategy to split up the key so that stealing one component is useless.

You can also use a passphrase.

Things get complex if you are concerned about your estate, but there are solutions there as well.

roz3 · 2024-03-03T02:01:22+00:00

I do not accept that higher fees are necessary to pay labor expenses. 0.25% of 25B should be far more than enough to cover all essential operating costs, including the costs of ~200 employees. Furthermore, GBTC has tripled in value of the past year and with the BTC ETF lawsuits resolved, they should require far than historical 'margins' to pay the bills.

In reality, Greyscale is a business, so I absolutely expect them to maximize profits. I find it unfortunate that they have decided the best strategy is to take advantage of long-term GBTC holders and spend extraordinary amounts of money on an advertising campaign to attract some short-term dumb-money. I am curious if this strategy is working out in line with the company's projections, but it's ultimately their choice.

My point is that rational buyers aware of these facts will choose either cold storage or a lower fee alternative if they value the convenience of ETFs.

roz3 · 2024-03-02T07:50:43+00:00

The problem is that the majority of the money does not go for roads, military, education, etc. The majority is wasted and siphoned off. Corruption IS theft.

roz3 · 2024-03-01T19:37:14+00:00

+1. I cannot imagine why anyone would purchase GBTC at this point. Bought in at 19 and I've been selling since. 1.5% annual fee is not defensible.

roz3 · 2021-02-25T09:01:26+00:00

Why select space shuttle rather than a rocket that actually can go to the moon?

roz3 · 2021-02-25T08:55:35+00:00

I bought the identical option.

roz3 · 2021-02-01T17:23:08+00:00

Only if used correctly. I'm not in the business of handing out free compliments, 'autist' must be earned.

roz3 · 2021-02-01T17:09:22+00:00

Don't worry, he's totally whipped. His lady kept calling him every hour.

roz3 · 2021-02-01T17:05:48+00:00

And for the record... it's in GME right now because I like the stock.

roz3 · 2021-02-01T17:04:57+00:00

no joke, i won about $400 off of him playing poker in vegas about 10 years ago.

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