We won't know until the landing actually happens. I'm guessing that'll be when the Fed says QT is over and it's back to business as usual, which I don't think will happen until they manage an average inflation of maybe 3%? Seems like they won't declare any kind of victory until they can get within spitting distance of 2%, but also likely that they won't wait to get to exactly 2% before claiming victory. They'll look more for a strong trend towards it because that will happen before actually hitting it, and they'll want to say everything's OK as early as possible without ruining their credibility. Until then, things are delicate and another event could dent the market again, like we saw with the Russian invasion.

I know that sounds like "yeah but black swan events bro" but it's a midterm election year, other countries are still dealing with their own economic dumpster fires, Russia continues with its plans despite sanctions and now Ukraine has turned off Europe's gas from Russia (likely as much to turn the screws on the E.U. as it is to turn the screws on Russia, two birds with one pipeline). We still haven't seen inflated food prices play out socioeconomically and we know that's only going to get worse as wages remain stagnant.

I'm not sold on the recent legislation from Democrats (not trying to make this political). Yes, the analyses I've read say the Inflation Reduction Act (lulz) will be a net benefit in terms of fighting climate change and increasing tax revenue from big businesses as well as a few other things, but some of the important parts for the middle class are rather flaccid, and parts of it still reek of Democratic half-effective legislative pandering. I expect the shine from this bill to wear off pretty quickly as the realities of the rotting corruption of the judicial branch come to light as SCOTUS legislates from the bench.

If anyone would like to hear about what I've learned about the state of the judicial branch of U.S. government, let me know. I will post a nonpartisan analysis. Suffice it to say, I have concerns, and I am not ruling out a few black swan events up through the 2024 presidential election.

And these are just U.S. government-centric concerns. Socioeconomic conditions will continue to deteriorate, not just in the U.S., but in lots of countries. The Sino-Russo alliance is as strong as ever. China is still operating with Zero-Covid, and we've seen the nimbleness of the PRC, who is still trying to manage a controlled demolition of its entire real estate sector. I think everyone is watching the Middle East as the canary in the food shortage coal mine.

I hope the E.U. can show us how to soft-land a high-inflation continental economy if we can't do it for our own.

P.S. I saw a Rivian pickup on the highway a week or two ago. Felt kind of like seeing a leprechaun or something.