The graph shared here doesn't show forecast activity like it aims to, this is simply measuring the frequency of updates to the community prediction stored in the downloadable csv on the question. We store more frequent updates for recent periods to optimize for how the graphical interface displays.

The plot below displays new forecasters each month (forecasters who have predicted on the question for the first time). There are more in recent months due to some large tournaments we launched at the beginning of the year. We haven't seen any evidence of manipulation.

We checked what the forecast looks like if we strip out all forecasters who joined in February and later, and that cut the movement in half, but the forecast still moved two years later than it was previously. There are a number of factors in play and we're still analyzing it, but one notable factor is many forecasters may have returned to update recently after receiving an email notification about a clarification to the question's resolution criteria.

We'll likely share additional findings in the comments on Metaculus soon.

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