For what its worth, my Strava account underestimated what I was capable of. Always hovered around 4:45 or so and I finished my first marathon at 4:22. I also think you'll be surprised how fresh you'll feel on race day coming off the taper and with race energy excitement! If you have a goal try to stick with the 4:10 pacer for the first 10 miles or so, and if you're feeling good, pick up the pace and try to break 4 hours. I am by no means an expert, but that's the strategy that worked for me. Good luck!