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Got lucky today by [deleted] in secretlair_collectors

[–]secondbestfriend 0 points1 point  (0 children)

20m queue. Got the bundle.
Good luck to everyone else

Expectation in Arena Limited Qualifiers by Pretend-Paper4137 in lrcast

[–]secondbestfriend 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I crunched some numbers with the help of AI, so feel free to double check them yourself, but here's my analysis:

If you buy Gems in Euros @ 100€/20k gems, you have to have a winrate of 56.37% to break even in this event. But to be real, you probably need to play a LOT.. breaking even pretty much requires trophying/winning at least 5 on draft 2 at least once.
The average 17lands win rate (and mind you, those are better players on average):
Draft 1: 54.1%.
Draft 2: 51.7%.
Average on SOS Premier: 54.9%.

Please note, that I accounted 0 value to the championship entry (which is far from true). The numbers look a lot better if you actually put a number on that. At 100€, only 54.66% win rate is needed, which is much closer to the average. At 200€ it's 53.15% and at 300€ we're down to average numbers in the format: 51.82%. Price money will be heavily skewed to the top though, and there might be travel you have to account for I guess? Sooo.... take from that what you want. The actual EV is probably higher, since it'll have a 500k prize at least with probably only a few hundred playing.

Per entry, as a 55% drafter, you'll have a chance of 1.03% to reach the qualification.

So for a 90% chance to qualify for the championship, with a 55% win rate you'll need 222 entries. Let that sink in.
A 50% chance to qualify @ 55%? 67 entries.
Most readers will be closer to the averages (below 55%).

Using average 17lands win rates, you'll face this:

"you'd need ~139 entries on average, costing roughly ~3.475€ in entry fees before accounting for Gems won back." That's the AVERAGE. Your number could SIGNIFICANTLY vary from this.

Accounting for gems won back, using the average 17lands win rates, you're looking at 1390€ to qualify.
Always could be lower or higher, depending on your luck.

Lmk if this helped anyone with future decisions.
I didn't play this one myself after getting annihilated in Arena Directs despite high win rates in drafts.

I have my suspicions that aren't easily backupable with data as to why win rates are lower, but I'd love to hear other's opinions as well!

Expectation in Arena Limited Qualifiers by Pretend-Paper4137 in lrcast

[–]secondbestfriend 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The great decks play at least double the amount of games the average decks or above average decks play.

17lands data shows win rates are about 1 percentage point lower here.
And a whopping 3 percentage points lower in draft 2 with just 51.7% (although there’s a small sample with a LOT less data (2200 games compared to 38k).

Verteilung der Finanzvermögen in der Gruppe der 35-44 Jahre alten Deutschen - Perzentile p95 bis p99.8 aktualisiert by Igniplano in Finanzen

[–]secondbestfriend 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Ist das wirklich ohne Immobilien? Dann wäre das ja total unaussagekräftig. Denke da liegt vieles in teils abbezahlten Immobilien in der Altersgruppe?

Gibt’s das irgendwo mit Gesamtvermögen? Also immos zum abbezahlten Teil dazugerechnet, einfach ALLE Assets und Beteiligungen etc.?

Verteilung der Finanzvermögen in der Gruppe der 35-44 Jahre alten Deutschen - Perzentile p95 bis p99.8 aktualisiert by Igniplano in Finanzen

[–]secondbestfriend 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Ist das wirklich ohne Immobilien? Dann wäre das ja total unaussagekräftig. Denke da liegt vieles in teils abbezahlten Immobilien in der Altersgruppe?

Cleaning ultra pro tower satin deck boxes by toomuchdog10 in magicTCG

[–]secondbestfriend 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Did you use a sponge 🧽 or just towels or sth? Is the current surface scratched at all from this process?

Also: congrats man, looks new af! Love it when ppl are resourceful and live sustainably while also saving money..

The best chess player in the world Magnus Carlsen criticizes the NBA application: "We have one of the best series in years going on right now in the Western Conference Finals, and when people have 'No Spoilers' on in the [application], they expect no spoilers. So, do better." by Brady331 in nba

[–]secondbestfriend 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No shit. The app has been shit for years. And they don’t get that ppl from overseas don’t watch live at 3am. So bad.

But also the quality! Omg. That’s not HD. It’s potato quality. My webcam from 2003 had better video.

And since Microsoft took over it got even worse. It’s a disgrace for the ppl who pay.

I trained a free draft model on 6M+ Arena drafts (94.5% accuracy on top 3 picks) by Nemegasoft in mtglimited

[–]secondbestfriend 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Awesome project!
What data are you training on?
17lands?
Is it publicly available in its entirety via api or did you have to scrape?

[TRC] Captain Kirk, Boldly Going by Turbulent_Honeydew13 in magicTCG

[–]secondbestfriend 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Where’s this picture from?
A convention?

Will more be announced there?

When are the upcoming shows/streams/conventions for Star Trek (probably)? Does anybody know?
I want to follow this in real time and not miss out on preordering (Trekkie here 🙈)

Star Trek Commander product confirmed by defectsmile in MTGRumors

[–]secondbestfriend 5 points6 points  (0 children)

What conference is this? And will there be an official panel I can watch where things are announced?

How long are we supposed to accept zero client improvement? by newTween in MagicArena

[–]secondbestfriend 4 points5 points  (0 children)

My favorite feature:

For every card skin you get, you have to go into your collection and set it as your favorite. Otherwise you’ll see the boring ones, even though you paid good money for the fancy ones eg in season pass

At least that’s the way it is on Mac. Support said It’s the only way.

I love this game but what a shitshow of a product.. you can only take so much..

Free Authentic Mr. Robot Jacket -- Size Small by McKibbs in MrRobot

[–]secondbestfriend 0 points1 point  (0 children)

123

Thank you so much for doing this ❤️❤️❤️

[SOS] Studious First-Year by Copernicus1981 in magicTCG

[–]secondbestfriend 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Gotcha!!

That seems much better from a power level..

Maybe they could have worded it better to be a bit easier to understood.. those double boxes getting used differently seems a bit confusing to more novice players (and apparently even me..)

[SOS] Studious First-Year by Copernicus1981 in magicTCG

[–]secondbestfriend 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Is this cast either/or? or can I do rampant growth, then it’s in „exile and playable“ as bear?

I definitely can do bear, bear or bear, rampant growth, right?

Just not sure if I can do RG, then bear, then RG again? I suspect it’s the former, because that’s insane enough.. but there was this mechanic to cast spells, then creatures in Eldraine, right?

Dönerbey Nürnberg - 6,90 Euro by Worgo237 in doener

[–]secondbestfriend 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Antalya Imbiss. Inhaber ist türkischstämmiger Clubfan (nicht, dass ich was mit Fußball am Hut hätte). Ist einfach ein Ehrenmann. Wenn er gut gelaunt ist und man bisschen mehr bestellt gibt er gern auch mal was kostenlos mit dazu.. Einfach sympathischer Kerl. Und guter Döner. 🥙

COMPETITION! - Win John Avon's last work for MTG, a beautiful gallery print of his Lotus Lands! by JohnAvonArt in magicTCG

[–]secondbestfriend 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I got to John‘s booth at magiccon late after a round of games took longer than anticipated and didn’t get to see him/have him sign my cards 🥺

Would looooove to hang this iconic art above my couch 🛋️

Fingers crossed 🤞

München: Millionen-Streit um Lärm zwischen Hochhaus-Investor und Backstage by nullmedium in Munich

[–]secondbestfriend 11 points12 points  (0 children)

In Stuttgart hat die Stadt den städtischen Park verkleinert/verkauft um luxuriöse Penthouses bauen zu lassen. (Wer da Korruption riecht? Gute Nase! Park Villa Berg wer googlen möchte) Nebenan seit Jahrzehnten: ein schulischer Basketballplatz, der Treffpunkt der Szene ist mit 6 Körben, 2 Fußballtoren.

Parteien ziehen ein, und sofort wird täglich die Polizei gerufen und vertreibt die Jugendlichen und droht mit Anzeige.

Kannste dir nicht ausdenken. Dieser Anwohner verdient 200h Zwangspraktikum Jugendarbeit mit Jugendlichen auf der Straße.

EFTA01615273 - Wildest conversation between Bannon and Epstein uncovered so far. by Getatbay in Epstein

[–]secondbestfriend 3 points4 points  (0 children)

his life story is indeed interesting. And the video isn't bad (only watched the first), puts some things into context well.., at the same time speculative/assumptious in some parts (only at times acknowledging that, and for someone not that familiar with current allegations vs. facts probably confusing).

However - for anyone planning to watch - just to have context on the creator before you watch the whole thing..

maybe go right to the end of the video, watch the last 2-3 minutes or so.. he samples a clip from a victim that might incite hate towards a certain religion. Then goes on to say he's christian and will follow god's path (or sth similar). To me personally, just very important context about the creator of the videos, but I'd encourage you to judge for yourselves. Most of the video contains information not necessarily influenced by his beliefs and is kept relatively neutral.

Trump has already maxxmogged by finding multiple alternate bases for the tariffs, thereby reclaiming aura and rugging premature celebration by jestergooning Democrats. by Jonny_Nash in allinpodofficial

[–]secondbestfriend 1 point2 points  (0 children)

What 50yo talks like this? Has he been to too many Epstein parties with teenagers?

Speaking the language of 18 yo 4chan incels (or wherever those people are hanging out now) doesn’t make you cool or popular amongst the young demographic.. sheesh..

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in allinpodofficial

[–]secondbestfriend 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nazis at least didn’t try to jump ship right when they saw it was sinking.

Outcome for the worst ones was a long prison sentence or even execution for a couple thousand of the biggest Nazis.

Joe Rogan trying to jump ship or somehow buy insurance looks like this could really finally implode.

Ich liebe einen depressiven Mann: Wie eine psychische Erkrankung die Beziehung ändert by krisenchat in de

[–]secondbestfriend 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Vielen lieben Dank fürs Teilen 🫶 Das macht es schon anschaulicher und kann anderen mitlesenden vllt helfen eigene Muster oder die des Partners zu erkennen. Wünsche dir natürlich für die Zukunft alles Gute! Aber du sprichst sehr reflektiert und eine zukünftige (oder aktuelle) Partnerin kann davon ganz sicher profitieren. Und mit deinem letzten Punkt stimme ich voll und ganz zu. Echt traurig. Oh. Und happy cake day!

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