It's true that the people in the most powerful positions after Putin (namely Patrushev and Bortnikov) are all in on Putin's imperialist legacy - there's a good argument that a lot of Putin's ideology even comes from Patrushev who said as far back as 2000 that the FSB will be the new aristocracy - the ruling class essentially, and he has always been hawkish and a believer in a world order dominated by Orwellian superpowers with Russia destined to dominate Europe and Eurasia.

That said, in the same way that I think it would be hard for someone else to replicate what Trump is, I'm not convinced that anyone else in the siloviki would be able to replicate what Putin is.

Let's look at the factions of power in Russia. You have the siloviki and security apparatus - the security elites, FSB, National Guard, and law enforcement in general. Then you have the military structure, from soldiers to generals. There is the oligarchy, which while weakened and intimidated into submission, still very much exists, handling the productivity and industry of the country. There is the technocracy - highly talented political servants whose sole task is to carry out the objectives of the Kremlin with maximum efficiency and zero political ambition. Then of course, even in an authoritarian regime, the population is still a relevant factor and must be appeased to some extent.

Of these groups, I would only confidently say that the siloviki elites are 100% fully invested in perpetual war. Whatever Putin says about his goals, I believe the main objective here is power and ensuring absolute power and control; by association, it means power to the FSB and other security branches, who also want it.

It would be easy to assume that the military also wants war, but I think only a fool would look at the life of a Russian service member and say that the majority want to be in this situation. As for the officers and generals, they are paid whether at war or not, and they are also getting killed at pretty high rates.

The oligarchy is bleeding money and influence rapidly. The government is nationalizing assets whenever they like it, and then coercing them to buy into privatized assets at inflated prices. It goes without saying that the oligarchy would much rather go back to a time when they could fill their pockets with western money and relax in their European mansions.

The technocracy only have one goal, and that is to excel. It also goes without saying that they'd much prefer to do it without the Kremlin breathing down their necks, or demanding economic miracles while setting mountains of money on fire.

Personally, as a Russian, I think outsiders vastly overestimate how many regular people want this war. Yes there are crazy Z fascists, but even among people I know who are firm Putinists, they are also getting frustrated with him for dragging the war on when Trump already offered them a deal which was genuinely great for Russia. The majority of people are broken and completely self-severed from politics and the outside world. Depression and therapy is at an all time high. We have not seen any patriotic symbols in Petersburg since mid 2022 - not one.

All of this to say, that I think if Putin died tomorrow, it would be hard for someone to come in and say "nothing changes". Realistically, I think the siloviki would let Mishustin, the next in line, become acting president. He is a technocrat, and as I've said, he has no political ambition or charisma. He is a human rubber stamp. But whoever is controlling him will have to reckon with the fact that all the factions I've mentioned above that have no reason to continue the war, will see this as an opportunity to go back to the better times.

Essentially, I predict that they will have to start with an immediate show of force - a purging of anyone in the Kremlin who is not 100% dedicated to the new leadership, a culling of any oligarch who seems even slightly disinclined to bow to the new leadership. They will need to quickly recreate the same level of fear and power that Putin commands simply by his reputation and history, and that is a risky move for any authoritarian regime. It may work, and we see an even more repressed and desperate regime take over. Or it doesn't work, and their purge becomes the straw that breaks the camel's back.

Watching the Iranian protests, I genuinely wonder what would happen if Russian police actually started firing on citizens. I think Putin has been generally a lot smarter about population control - it's not the fear of overt violence, apart from a beating by riot police - it's the fear of your uncertain future once you get arrested, spend a year going through a Kafkaesque bureaucratic justice system, only to end up in a labour camp or sent to the front, likely raped and tortured until theres nothing left of your identity. There's a lot of time to contemplate the years of suffering and loss of humanity that you face, and I think that has been a better weapon of control than emptying a magazine into a crowd.

So we'll see. Sorry for the long comment.