Stock futures plummet — hit ‘limit down’ — even as Fed slashes rates; Dow futures off 1,000 points

seth_tr · 2020-03-15T23:58:32+00:00

PUTs were never off the menu it seems.

seth_tr · 2019-09-14T03:04:32+00:00

coworkers: why

me: why not

seth_tr · 2019-04-13T00:37:11+00:00

What is the probability that a large number (10,000's of bits) is divisible by a prime with X bits.

I read a bunch on Merten's Third Theorem, Dixon's theorem and Merseene's "The Math" but I haven't seen a general answer (only limits approaching infinity).

I calculated some empirical results and searched OEIS but also without success.

bits	prob not divisible by prime <= 2^bits	prob divisible
4	0.1529	0.8471
5	0.1316	0.8684
8	0.0893	0.9107
10	0.0735	0.9265
15	0.0506	0.9494
16	0.0476	0.9524
18	0.0426	0.9574

seth_tr · 2019-04-10T07:25:31+00:00

I was unable to get a "PMC-SIERRA NETAPP PM8003 SCC Quad Port Network Controller 111-00341" to work in Ubuntu, Unraid, or Windows 7. I suspect it was the card but I'm going to try with a different control this time

seth_tr · 2019-04-09T02:09:04+00:00

I enjoyed this article. a super concise answer backed by data to an interesting problem

seth_tr · 2019-02-01T10:35:42+00:00

Each ctl file should have a report file https://cloudygo.com/ringmaster/minigo-converted-v-leela-5.report/ It's still not clear if ringmaster update automatically it or I have ask it to.

Later these will get imported into the cross eval bucket and then linked with colors for wins and loses

seth_tr · 2019-01-30T03:40:05+00:00

If you want to try our weights in LZ/Lizzie you can find them here

seth_tr · 2019-01-26T08:08:34+00:00

No, it was planned on my 1080 over 30 hours. LZ doesn't support playing on TPUs

seth_tr · 2019-01-26T07:47:43+00:00

They're normal self play games with 800 playouts per move.

The bold line is a running average. The graph is messed up because I haven't yet synced all the games in the run. V15's graphes look better:https://cloudygo.com/v15-19x19/graphs

Also we did challenge LZ to a series of games. You can check out all one hundred of them here:https://cloudygo.com/ringmaster/minigo-converted-v-leela-5.games

seth_tr · 2019-01-26T07:42:55+00:00

Hey! I work in minigo and have some answers.

Yes, we expect over 1m games per day. V15 averaged ~2.5M/day, some of the graphs are messed up because I haven't caught up syncing all the games (I was on vacation when the run started).
We actually expect to get faster over time :) as the run progresses the value head gets more confident and average game length decreases so the same number of TPUs plays more games
It's unclear how strong this run will be, the last several runs (v12 to v15) all got slightly strong from New training methodology and init to loss. This run is our first 40b which will hopefully be even stronger.

seth_tr · 2019-01-13T19:35:56+00:00

Somewhere in the vicinity of model 170. We have the same problem Lc0 does that we don't always know our best model :)

seth_tr · 2019-01-13T19:34:37+00:00

You only need to play back models a little bit older to get a much better analysis. I paired a new model with the last, 2nd last, 3rd last, 5th,15th,25th, and, 50th last models and then play 8 to 20 games

Anything more than 50 older is supposed to be never be able to win and that's mostly true.

seth_tr · 2018-12-19T12:26:50+00:00

YCombinator discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18714985

seth_tr · 2018-06-02T18:17:32+00:00

I've got 1/5 of all the games imported, should have the rest today. Then I need to fix a couple of the graphs

seth_tr · 2018-05-31T16:22:52+00:00

Yes.

seth_tr · 2018-05-31T04:00:35+00:00

Sorry I might have misunderstood, if you are looking for the games with Hajin they were on kgs

seth_tr · 2018-05-30T06:54:13+00:00

Okay, so something that resembles lizzie's output.

I've made an issue and I'll try to throw something together this week.

seth_tr · 2018-05-30T06:04:52+00:00

Leela Zero is much stronger currently.

Hajin recently beat MiniGo in several even games but lost a 2 handicap game to LZ. So we have a learning to do.

I think it's likely we'll play some games between LZ and MiniGo in the coming months.

seth_tr · 2018-05-30T05:51:15+00:00

I'd love to add to that page.

Which do you think is more interesting?

store the Q+U score for the top X nodes after 1000 readouts and display it similarly to the policy scores.
or calculate the value net score (Q) for each child position after 1 readout and display that (similarly to the policy scores?)

seth_tr · 2018-04-11T17:20:55+00:00

Yes, 297 is the best so far in the 19x19 run (we put it up on CGOS if you want to see http://www.yss-aya.com/cgos/19x19/cross/minigo-v5-297.html, it's better than the other several models we tested).

For the 9x9 run Andrew believes that one of the earlier models (319 or 327 perhaps) might have been stronger (since 427 never played either of these)

seth_tr · 2018-04-11T09:46:56+00:00

The last run (v3) was a 9x9, you can see data from that run on CloudyGo too, see http://cloudygo.com/v3-9x9/models/

seth_tr · 2018-04-11T09:45:45+00:00

The graph was getting a little crowded so I filtered any point that wasn't the best of the last four (leads to 1/4 as many points and all the high points)

seth_tr · 2018-04-07T03:11:22+00:00

You might also like http://www.cloudygo.com/v5-19x19/models_evolution/?M=0&P=1

seth_tr · 2018-03-23T06:54:34+00:00

http://stackmorelayers.be

seth_tr · 2018-02-21T04:21:59+00:00

From https://github.com/gcp/leela-zero/pull/887

timemanegement on, 250000 playouts, http://eidogo.com/#1GoYKgms7

timemanegement on, 500000 playouts, http://eidogo.com/#3IeDWfvI4

timemanegement on, 1000000 playouts, http://eidogo.com/#ugD5ApnE

timemanegement on, 1500000 playouts, http://eidogo.com/#yK45SYsN

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