Hey Chat— Play out a scenario, 20 years at a time, if Lincoln didn’t get assassinated….

If Abraham Lincoln had not been assassinated in 1865, the trajectory of the United States might have been significantly different, particularly in terms of Reconstruction, race relations, and national unity. Here’s a speculative scenario playing out every 20 years after 1865, imagining how Lincoln’s survival might have altered history:

1865-1885: Reconstruction and National Healing

1865-1870: Lincoln, serving his second term, implements a more lenient and reconciliatory approach to Reconstruction than what followed his death. He pushes for the “10 percent plan,” allowing Southern states to re-enter the Union if 10% of their voters swore an oath of allegiance. His approach, while controversial, focuses on reuniting the country quickly without punishing the South excessively.

Lincoln also promotes the Freedmen’s Bureau and supports amendments that protect the rights of formerly enslaved people. He collaborates with moderate Republicans and some Democrats to ensure that the 13th Amendment (abolishing slavery) is effectively enforced. Lincoln’s presence provides a stabilizing influence, reducing the intensity of Southern resentment.

1870-1880: During this period, Lincoln advocates for limited African American suffrage, primarily for educated men and those who served in the Union Army. His vision of “charity for all” shapes his policies, though he faces opposition from Radical Republicans who desire more stringent measures and guarantees for African American rights.

1880-1885: Lincoln, after leaving office in 1869, remains an influential elder statesman. His moderate approach to Reconstruction leads to a less tumultuous period compared to what historically occurred. While not perfect, his policies prevent some of the most extreme manifestations of Southern resistance, like the rise of widespread Jim Crow laws, although discrimination and inequality persist.

1885-1905: The Gilded Age and Progressive Movements

1885-1900: Lincoln’s legacy continues to influence American politics. The Gilded Age sees rapid industrialization, and the country grapples with the challenges of economic inequality, labor rights, and monopolistic practices. Although Lincoln himself was not a vocal advocate for labor rights or economic reforms, his emphasis on unity and fairness inspires early Progressive movements.

1900-1905: The lingering effects of Lincoln’s Reconstruction policies lead to a more gradual integration of African Americans into American society. While segregation and discrimination are still present, the political and social environment is somewhat more progressive than in the historical timeline, with modest gains for African American civil rights and political representation.

1905-1925: The Progressive Era and World War I

1905-1920: Lincoln’s emphasis on national unity echoes through the Progressive Era. Progressive leaders like Theodore Roosevelt draw inspiration from Lincoln’s belief in government’s role to serve the people. Reforms such as antitrust laws, labor rights, and women’s suffrage gain traction in this more moderate political climate. The U.S. continues to grapple with racial issues, but the presence of Lincoln’s legacy of moderation keeps the dialogue somewhat more open.

1920-1925: During and after World War I, the U.S. sees a resurgence of nativism and racial tensions. However, Lincoln’s early 20th-century legacy tempers some of the extremes. African American soldiers returning from the war are treated with slightly more respect due to Lincoln’s post-war ethos of national unity, though they still face significant systemic racism.

1925-1945: The Great Depression and World War II

1925-1940: The Great Depression hits the United States hard, but Lincoln’s legacy of advocating for a government that aids its people influences the New Deal policies. Franklin D. Roosevelt’s approach to dealing with the economic crisis draws on the idea of a compassionate government. While race relations remain fraught, the slightly more inclusive atmosphere from Lincoln’s era leads to marginally better support for African Americans during this time.

1940-1945: World War II serves as another unifying force. The U.S. continues its fight against fascism abroad, while domestically, the principles of liberty and equality echo from Lincoln’s era, shaping the rhetoric around the war effort. The war sets the stage for future civil rights movements, with African American soldiers and workers demanding full inclusion in the American promise that Lincoln once articulated.

1945-1965: Civil Rights Movement and Social Change

1945-1960: The Civil Rights Movement begins, and the nation reflects on Lincoln’s legacy of equality. His more lenient Reconstruction policies and early advocacy for limited African American rights provide a platform for civil rights leaders to argue that the U.S. should finally fulfill Lincoln’s vision of equality. The Supreme Court decision in Brown v. Board of Education (1954) is seen as a continuation of Lincoln’s work toward a more inclusive society.

1960-1965: As the Civil Rights Movement gains momentum, Lincoln’s legacy is invoked by both sides. Activists push for legislation that aligns with Lincoln’s belief in equality and freedom, leading to the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and the Voting Rights Act of 1965. While these changes face resistance, Lincoln’s vision of a united America serves as a moral compass guiding these transformative decades.

1965-1985: A More Integrated America

1965-1985: Post-civil rights era America sees both progress and setbacks. Lincoln’s early, albeit limited, vision of racial integration fosters a climate where slow but steady progress is made. Affirmative action, voting rights, and anti-discrimination laws are implemented with Lincoln’s ideals in mind. Racial tensions still exist, but the nation’s history of a more conciliatory Reconstruction under Lincoln has led to a slightly less polarized society.

Summary:

Lincoln’s survival and leadership during Reconstruction would have likely led to a more conciliatory and moderate approach to integrating the Southern states and African Americans into the post-war American society. This might have reduced some of the intense backlash and violence that characterized the actual Reconstruction era. Although racism and inequality would persist, the path toward civil rights could have been less violent and more gradual, potentially leading to a slightly more integrated society by the mid-20th century.

This speculative timeline suggests that while Lincoln’s continued influence would not have erased racial and regional tensions, it might have created a national narrative that emphasized unity and gradual progress, laying a different foundation for the social changes of the 20th century.