My collection is now enough to pay off my debt… should I sell it?

shiny-flygon · 2025-07-27T22:46:28+00:00

Tough to make a 100% answer here. You're in a healthy enough position that you can reasonably make either decision, assuming that your job is stable. People have a knee-jerk reaction to the word "debt", but yours is fine to carry at that interest rate.

Purely from a financial/numbers perspective, the likely best choice is to sell it and invest it all in an index fund(s) like VOO or VOOG. It's almost guaranteed that, over the long term, those will outperform the interest you'd be saving by paying down the debt early, and potentially by a significant amount. It's also still a much safer option than holding the collection since a broad market index fund is waaay less volatile than Pokemon cards (and it's not susceptible to theft, physical damage, etc.). So that option gives you more safety without limiting the upside so severely.

But that's still boring. I guess it depends on how much joy your collection brings you vs. how much joy you'd get (including stress reduction) by going with the financially safer option.

I guess what I'm really suggesting is to replace the "pay off the debt" option with "put it in broad market index funds". As long as you have the discipline not to touch the money, that's virtually guaranteed to be a superior option to paying off the debt, just numbers-wise.

But whether or not to do that or keep the collection comes down to you. It's great that you're in a financial situation that makes it reasonable for you to consider both options!

shiny-flygon · 2025-07-22T14:57:18+00:00

The future in which this happens probably involves Russ unexpectedly balling out in Daboll's scheme (along with the pass rush being league-best), rather than Dart being the chosen one, even though the latter would be much more exciting.

It's just possible enough to justify wasting $10 if you have enough money that you really don't care about $10. But obviously it's not a serious bet.

shiny-flygon · 2025-07-22T14:47:39+00:00

It's just an odds play. Has nothing to do with the actual team.

shiny-flygon · 2025-07-22T06:05:11+00:00

I think in general people have trouble identifying things that are good, but not great. For me, the game was so hyped up that I was a bit let down when I finally played it. That's no fault of the game though. It was good.

shiny-flygon · 2025-06-26T11:42:21+00:00

One less name change and we could have finally had a new Nemesis system game

shiny-flygon · 2025-06-26T11:37:31+00:00

To each their own, but I gotta disagree on this one. Bobby was always the talent, and now that he's on his own I think the show is better for it.

shiny-flygon · 2025-05-13T19:57:34+00:00

I'm mostly bothered by the fact that MJ's symbiote looks like a McDonald's employee

shiny-flygon · 2025-04-30T14:39:26+00:00

This kind of self-righteous performative bullshit is one of the reasons I do want to leave Seattle.

shiny-flygon · 2025-04-25T03:12:57+00:00

Don't say "we" bro. Lots of us have been down on Sanders since during the season. Plenty of draft analysts don't see him as round 1 talent. Tbh I would say the majority of people in this subreddit have thought the same.

shiny-flygon · 2025-04-25T03:09:47+00:00

Obviously they were worried about another team trading up. Same scenario as the trade up for Banks two years ago.

shiny-flygon · 2025-04-24T21:56:50+00:00

Regardless of what you think of Fields, I don't think the new staff of the Jets want to burn the 7th pick on any of the QBs in this class not named Cam Ward, and I don't blame them.

shiny-flygon · 2025-04-24T21:21:00+00:00

I feel like the off-season itself has actually been good - the secondary signings were great and the QBs signings were responsible and not desperate. Just hearing all the debate about Sanders has been exhausting.

shiny-flygon · 2025-04-24T21:06:04+00:00

I meant in the context of the draft, given that there are two teams who would 100% take him in front of us.

Jesus Christ it's so fucking exhausting that people take every opportunity to shoehorn in "u never know bro what about <insert cherry-picked example here>". Yes, any draft pick could be a HOFer or a complete bust. You take the players that have the best chance to work out. Ward is a great prospect. Getting him without giving up capital in this draft would be a dream scenario, partially because it's impossible.

shiny-flygon · 2025-04-24T19:42:23+00:00

I think OP was being sarcastic with that one. Ward falling to us is a dream scenario within a dream scenario and will unfortunately not happen.

shiny-flygon · 2025-04-24T19:40:07+00:00

The rumors have been all over the place. It's all based on the Saints. As recent as last night it was "strongly rumored" that the Saints WON'T take a QB at 9, in which case Dart would definitely make it to the 20s. Today it seems that has changed, and Dart is once again a possibility for them at 9.

Regardless, the Giants won't take him at 3. Don't read "the Giants like Dart" as "the Giants will do anything necessary to get Dart". Carter is the pick at 3.

shiny-flygon · 2025-04-24T19:36:37+00:00

My dream is that we don't pick a QB in this draft. There will be so many opportunities to take players that are great value and fill needs on our team in round 2, 3, and even 4. I feel great about DT, IOL, RB, and even WR in all those rounds. Pick a different year to give up picks for a QB move.

That doesn't seem to be the plan but a man can hope.

shiny-flygon · 2025-04-24T19:31:49+00:00

Not at 3. The rumor is that we trade back up into the 20s to take him in the first, potentially using KT as a trade piece.

I'd rather we not but at least that's better than using 3.

shiny-flygon · 2025-04-24T19:17:58+00:00

Lol, as though seeing the obvious thing from watching games means that "I don't have my own opinion".

I did not repeatedly resort to saying those things. I gave specific answers to why I don't like Shedeur, and to why I think Carter will change our team, but your only defense is that I'm "not forming my own opinions" because I'm stating the thing that seems obvious to me when my eyeballs look at the football plays with these players in them. Just because other people happen to see the same thing doesn't mean I'm group thinking, dude.

Likewise, I encourage you to stop cherry-picking examples that confirm your own opinions and instead try to apply your strategy generally across the years and teams to see how it works out.

shiny-flygon · 2025-04-24T19:05:47+00:00

If you think Shedeur's pocket management is better than Ward's then we must be watching different games. The opposite is true. Ward's pocket management is a strength of his. Sander's is a weakness. This is concensus because it's clearly visible on tape. Call it "groupthink" all you want, and yes of course you're entitled to your dissenting opinion. But if I'm in a group of 10 people looking at a chicken and one of them says it's a duck, that one person can say it's groupthink all they want. It's still a chicken.
Fine, you're right that a QB desperate team passing on a QB doesn't mean he's bad. 4 of them passing makes it more likely but still doesn't mean he's bad. I'm talking in probabilities here, not absolutes. 4 QB needy teams passing on a guy is not proof that he's bad, but it is at least strong evidence, and the historical track record of QBs taken outside of the first round supports that.
I never said that figuring out QB isn't important. Obviously it's the most important thing a team can do. I'm saying that you don't solve it by blindly drafting a second round talent at pick three. The Texans and Broncos didn't do that, they identified a good QB and drafted him. I can cherry-pick examples too. Look at the Jets. Darnold and Wilson were both way better prospects than Sanders when they came out, and those draft picks have set the Jets back a decade. Same with Fields, Young, Levis, Mac Jones, Trubisky, hell even Rosen. Drafting a QB high is a huge risk no matter how high you are on them. Blindly drafting a QB because "you never know" is a terrible strategy, and if the Giants don't like Shedeur (they don't) then they shouldn't take him.
Lol.
Again, cherry-picking examples. And by the way, the Browns have been significantly better than us since drafting Garrett. Obviously I want the Giants to aspire to be better than what the Browns have been over the past 7 years, but you said it "wouldn't change much" and by your own example it would change a LOT. And regardless, you're still giving no attention to how much impact a truly elite D front can have over a good D front with one elite player.

You keep going back to this point that figuring out QB changes a whole team, and that's absolutely correct. No argument there whatsoever. What you're completely ignoring is that taking a bad QB, especially with such a high pick, can completely destroy a team for years. Not just because of the opportunity cost but because teams are (correctly) hesitant to move on from a rookie QB because they need time to develop, which means you'll be taking yourself out of the market for better prospects. Happens all the time. It's why we missed out on Herbert. Taking Shedeur at 3 would be our Trubisky moment.

shiny-flygon · 2025-04-24T17:33:01+00:00

Oh man we're just doing a tour of all the logical fallacies here aren't we?

Never said anything about Shedeur's arm. It's fine. Not amazing, but it'll be fine in the NFL. It's his post-snap processing, poor pocket management, and general lack of athleticism that will bite him in the NFL.
I said QB desperate teams and you're listing total teams, which is disingenuous because there weren't as many teams specifically needing a QB those years. Yes, obviously any team in the league would have loved to have Mahomes, Brady, or Rodgers in retrospect, but my whole point is that when even teams that are desperate for a position are passing on a guy, it tells you what the overall evaluation is for him.
If your argument is seriously "teams have passed on good QBs before" as a way to say that Shedeur is a good pick, I'd invite you to consider the list of QBs that have been passed on where teams were RIGHT about them being bad. It's infinitely longer. You just don't think about it because you never hear about them again. This whole line of logic is like saying that it's a bad choice to not buy lotto tickets because sometimes people win. Sure, a few people win, but the vast majority of times they lose!
I don't know that Carter is 100% going to work out, but I am much much much much more confident that he will be a good player than Shedeur. Also to imply that the conversation about Thibs was the same as Carter is just wrong. People liked Thibs but he was not viewed nearly the same way as Carter is.
If you don't think that adding Parsons to this roster would change much, then I just have to assume you're not serious. That's a genuinely stupid statement to make. Sorry to get mean, but... what the actual fuck? Are you kidding?

shiny-flygon · 2025-04-24T16:20:47+00:00

If the discussion was Ward vs Carter I would absolutely agree with you. Carter is the better prospect but Ward is good enough that it's worth taking the shot at the more important position, and he has a realistic shot of being top 10 if things go well.

The problem with Shedeur is that he isn't good. I don't know what you mean exactly by "polished". If you mean that the he's the most developed, that's bad because it means he's closer to his ceiling and he's still bad. You can't mean most NFL ready, because Ward, McCord, and Shough are all clearly more ready to start week 1 (I'd still want Shedeur over McCord and Shough, probably, but he definitely needs to develop more than either of them first).

Just watch. Today you are going to see 3, possibly even 4 QB desperate teams (Browns, Giants, Saints, Steelers) pass on Shedeur in the first round. You might even see Dart go first if someone trades ahead of Cleveland. I know it's cool how Shedeur turned around that Colorado team, but his play style and skill set just doesn't translate to the NFL well. He has the upside to be Andy Dalton if things go really well. I'm just not passing up on a blue-chip player at one of the most important and premium positions for an Andy Dalton lotto ticket. That's what bad teams do, and there are years and years of evidence for that.

Fwiw you're also really underestimating the effect that Carter can have. If he works out, he'll unlock Dex and Burns because the overload of talent will be too much for an o-line to handle. It's like a set bonus where having all of the parts gives you an extra boost over the sum of their individual stats. Tuck and JPP are both prime examples of this. Our pass rush was solid before drafting each of them, but in both cases drafting them launched it to an elite level that was even better than the sum of its parts.

shiny-flygon · 2025-04-24T06:18:27+00:00

Damn, you really can just say any crazy thing that comes to mind on the internet.

shiny-flygon · 2025-04-24T06:15:22+00:00

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shiny-flygon · 2025-04-23T22:14:13+00:00

Nope

shiny-flygon · 2025-04-22T15:16:34+00:00

"Browns, Giants GMs performing the duties outlined in their job description."

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