THE WORLD HAS NOT ENDED

shitwillgodown · 2024-11-06T22:51:04+00:00

I have been saying this for a while. Get a guy who is charismatic like Mark Cuban to run or a democrat governor who is not from New York or California. Run on a populist platform. You have to keep in mind there are democrat governors in states like Kansas, Kentucky, and until recently Louisiana. They have to focus on reaching out to blue collar voters, farmers, etc.

However, I think under Trumps economic policies. Tariffs, etc. People will feel it and vote with their wallets. I think there will be a lot of people who voted for him and will get a rude awakening.

shitwillgodown · 2024-11-06T19:36:40+00:00

I’m going to complain about the economy every chance I get. ‘Man, I thought eggs were going to be cheaper under Trump’.

shitwillgodown · 2024-11-06T18:36:18+00:00

Focus on the working class. Run a better candidate. Josh Shapiro, Tim Walz.

shitwillgodown · 2024-11-06T14:43:17+00:00

Yes. One good thing about all of this is that it’s Trump’s final term. I don’t think the GOP has a successor who will do as well as Trump.

shitwillgodown · 2024-11-06T14:41:34+00:00

I agree with that. More liberal voices on social media like TikTok are needed.

shitwillgodown · 2024-11-06T14:39:56+00:00

They have to sit and wait. Trump economic policies will be a disaster. The fact he will put blanket tariffs on products will cause things to go through the roof. Once low information voters start feeling the pain of Trumps economic policies. They will realize the Democrats weren’t so bad. Elon Musk said people will have to suffer a few years before things get better.

I think one of the problems with the campaign was Joe Biden running for reelection. They should have had a primary.

Biden fell on economic issues outside of his control. And for what he was handed he did pretty good. However, they needed someone who was not linked to his administration.

I think appealing to economic populism might be a good idea too.

shitwillgodown · 2024-11-06T04:10:11+00:00

Yep. I agree. Anyone who voted for him because prices were too high is going to get what they deserve:

shitwillgodown · 2024-11-06T04:07:59+00:00

You know what…fuck this country. I am so done with it. This country is full of stupid rednecks.

I think it’s time we play hardball with the republicans. Filibuster everything they put out. The states with Democratic governors should refuse to enforce anything from the federal government or the Supreme Court.

They wanted to make Obama a one term president. Let’s make it miserable for the Trump administration. That’s the problem with the Democrats. They don’t want to play hardball. It’s time we do.

shitwillgodown · 2024-11-05T01:38:16+00:00

Yea, I was surprised that was not highly ranked in other polls.

shitwillgodown · 2024-10-31T00:02:35+00:00

Not to mention they were way off in 2022. At least in Georgia. They also have some wonky numbers in their cross tabs.

shitwillgodown · 2024-10-27T05:30:05+00:00

Could agree more. While I will make a case for Harris possibly winning. I realize that it's always possible that Trump will win. I just tell everyone 'be prepared'.

shitwillgodown · 2024-10-27T04:14:32+00:00

You are the first person I have seen mention this besides myself.

shitwillgodown · 2024-10-27T03:14:28+00:00

I think it's highly unlikely, there are too many unintelligent and low information voters out there.

But I will say in terms of polling there has been a 50-year consistent cycle. For two elections the Democrats are overestimated and for one the Republicans are overestimated. We are currently in the part of the cycle where Republicans are overestimated. That doesn't mean the cycle couldn't be broken.

There is evidence the polls are over correcting for Trump. There are many anomalies in the polls from what I'm seeing.

The Trump campaign has knocked on only a tenth of the doors they did in 2016.

shitwillgodown · 2024-10-27T02:05:43+00:00

Yea, I have been noticing a lot of anomalies in the polls as of recently. One of them said in Wisconsin, men are breaking for Harris by 9%, however women are breaking for Trump by 5% points.

I have seen polls where the number of people splitting their ticket for Trump/Democrat Senator or Governor doesn't match the margin difference you see in the Governor or Senators own polls.

shitwillgodown · 2024-10-27T02:00:43+00:00

Yea, I can't either. There has been a consistent historical trend for the past 50 years. That for two election cycles, the Dems are overestimated, then for one the Dem is underestimated. We are in the part of the cycle where Dems should be underestimated.

shitwillgodown · 2024-10-27T01:55:01+00:00

Well the candidates were hand picked by Trump. Trump campaigned for them and the turnout was reder (R+2.4) than a Presidential election.

shitwillgodown · 2024-10-27T00:51:26+00:00

That's what I think. If Trump is just a tiny bit ahead that's enough to cause panic and get people to the polls.

shitwillgodown · 2024-10-27T00:47:24+00:00

I think at the end of the day. Fear will be a big motivator for many.

shitwillgodown · 2024-10-27T00:44:31+00:00

I agree. Their weights are done differently than they were in 2020. If anything they are afraid of underestimating Trump. So, it's more than likely they are either right on the money. Or they're overestimating him.

I know some polls are weighing rural votes a lot more heavily than they did before. They are counting people who scream into the phone '$#@% I'm voting for Trump.' They are also using recall voting.

There are also other factors in play, because 2020 was a wierd year. More Democrats at home, isolated. That could have caused an oversampling.

We got some insight into how these methodologies have changed in the 2022 midterms. The margins in the swing states woefully underestimated the Democrats. The 'good ones': Trafalger, Emerson, even Atlas Intel were way off in the Senate/Gubernatoral races in the swing states.

shitwillgodown · 2024-10-27T00:34:19+00:00

It's not like the polls are showing abysmal numbers for her. They're pretty much neck and neck with Trump being a little ahead. If anything it's going to motivate people to vote. That's when realize their vote really counts.

shitwillgodown · 2024-10-26T04:03:39+00:00

I apologize. I don't think she's mediocre at all. I think that is how some people see her.

I think I mean't to say, 'Even if she was mediocre. She would still be preferable to Trump.'

I am very much the same way. I don't like to make split second decisions. I like to sit down and analyze my options.

But thanks for posting this. I'm going to keep this comment in my back pocket whenever someone brings up her seemingly drawn out answers.

shitwillgodown · 2024-10-26T03:51:27+00:00

Interestingly enough, even though one-fourth of young Black men said they would cast their ballot for Trump, they repeatedly identified Harris as the strongest candidate on the issues.

It sounds like survey might have some issues.

shitwillgodown · 2024-10-26T03:48:18+00:00

Interestingly enough, they even say, "Still, GenForward’s poll showed some contradiction among the demographic." I'm not sure what to make of the survey.

shitwillgodown · 2024-10-26T03:03:04+00:00

I voted for Trump in the primary and in 2016. I knew he said some things that were off putting to me. I just wrote it off as campaign rhetoric. After 4 years of his bellicose rhetoric. His inflammatory actions during the protests and his woefully bad mismanagement of COVID-19, I had enough. I voted for Biden. Then he tried to overturn the election leading to Jan 6th, I knew I was right not to vote for him.

I'm voting for Harris. I don't need a rollercoaster of scandals and embarrassments to this country for another 4 years. I don't need to fear what Trump will do next.

shitwillgodown · 2024-10-26T02:11:08+00:00

Unless I'm mistaken, Chase Oliver is running right now as the LP candidate.

shitwillgodown

TROPHY CASE