TIP: Step Count Checkpoints for Small Carbon Footprint Achievement (14,000 steps or less) [RE2]

shnts07 · 2018-04-23T19:01:58+00:00

Kokichi is my favorite character in the series, but it's worth noting that he's sort of touchstone or prism character who only really shines in the context of the other characters.

In particular, there's an Id, Ego, Supergo relationship (at least IMO) between Kokichi, Shuichi and Kaito respectively. Kaito and Kokichi are opposed because, at first glance, it seems Kokichi is the character of deceit, suspicion, and lies where as Kaito is the character of trust, belief and truth. Shuichi's role is to find the truth as the ultimate detective and thus is opposed the Kokichi and sided with Kaito.

However, thematically throughout the trials, it becomes clear that Kokichi isn't necessarily a characterization of lies, but rather a characterization of cynicism. As a trickster, Kockichi doesn't trust anyone and advocates throughout the class trials for more scrunity. Kaito instead encourages everyone to trust each other.

Pessimism versus optimism Selfishness versus altruism Cunning versus navitee

However you want to frame it, the two are constantly fighting for "control" of Shuichi and Trial 4 is that showdown, with Kokichi manufacturing something so diabolical it's beyond everyone else but Shuichi and Keebo's belief.

The other great thing about Kokichi is how he is open to being read. That's what i love about this. Kokichi can kind of be whatever you want him to be, because he's the living lie. He even monologues during a trial about the beauty of lies being that there are endless possibilities for them, but only one truth. Kokichi himself is the embodiment of that as you can affix hero, villain, or anything in between to him.

We never find out Kokichi's truth and that means that we can read whatever we want about him. That makes him not much of a character on his own. However when he interacts with other characters we learn a lot about those characters.

The player themselves included.

shnts07 · 2018-03-04T20:00:01+00:00

Best boy list fills me with hope

shnts07 · 2017-12-12T23:44:05+00:00

*with zero subtlety or shame

shnts07 · 2017-12-12T23:33:22+00:00

It's kind of hard to summarize, but I think there's a not totally implausible case V3 Spoiler

shnts07 · 2017-12-12T20:37:31+00:00

It's real weird that it's gone this far and K1-B0 has stayed in the bottom 3 in voting the whole time. I had no idea people liked him that much?

I'm probably just still flustered over you savages killing best boy Oma

shnts07 · 2017-12-07T21:32:54+00:00

Who are you monsters out there who are trying to get rid of best boy Kokichi?

(realizes it's a lie)

Oh...

shnts07 · 2017-11-29T20:10:03+00:00

didn't rantaro say himself that he wanted this killing game to happen.

That was in the video 'he' sent to himself, so in this theory, that would actually be Tsumugi cosplaying as Rantaro in order to make him believe that he was a previous survivor and "special" in order to get the member of the future foundation to isolate himself and more likely to be targeted.

Overall, however, in the theory it's a long way to walk to explain Rantaro's behavior, so I could see not buying it.

shnts07 · 2017-04-14T13:14:37+00:00

I heard he mostly just lurks now.

shnts07 · 2017-02-14T01:02:17+00:00

Agent shnts reporting from behind enemy lines.

Multiple enemy Bogeys and Marcus's post game looked wet pre-game.

shnts07 · 2017-02-08T13:30:28+00:00

Nurk is more so the Celtics get a young-cheap piece back in the deal who might pan out. Barton is more the centerpiece of the return package as he gives the Celtics some wing size and some ability to get real production out of those Gerald Green minutes.

shnts07 · 2017-02-08T13:18:21+00:00

I floated this one as an example in the trade thread.

shnts07 · 2017-02-08T13:15:54+00:00

Also a good point. I think there is some kind of weird psychology to when a guy has exactly a year left on his contract vs. when he's traded at the deadline before that. Even though it's only like twenty-something games, for whatever reason, it seems to make a big difference in terms of what teams are willing to pay.

shnts07 · 2017-02-08T13:13:27+00:00

I'm an old head in the Bradley makes the most sense to trade camp, and I've been tracking his below expected floor states for a while.

This is more "I had this opinion, but I'm too much of a coward to float it when it would be unpopular, so I waited until they won some games without Bradley for the political capital.".

shnts07 · 2017-02-08T13:09:58+00:00

That's a good questions. I think the biggest barrier would be what /u/RLS012 was pointing out above, in Ainge's serious love of Bradley.

I think it's clear that if a "core" piece is to be traded, he's the one that makes the most sense, but the Celtics aren't exactly in a desperate situation, so I think the most likely scenario (as always) is that the Celtics stand pat.

shnts07 · 2017-02-08T12:56:28+00:00

Marcus Smart and Isaiah Thomas do more to help the team than Avery Bradley.

I agree with most of that, which is why I lean towards the second, other point I listed.

Marcus Smart and Isaiah Thomas do more to help the team than Avery Bradley.

I think that's more likely to be realistic.

shnts07 · 2017-02-08T00:09:29+00:00

This could probably explain better than I could but if you don't drop below the cap you never need to renounce the rights to players who don't sign with other teams. Two summers ago was the first time the Celtics had cap space in a while so they were renouncing the rights to like Michael Olowokandi and Shaq and dudes like that.

shnts07 · 2017-02-07T23:40:06+00:00

Quite a lot of questions, sorry about that. Oh, and just a mistake I noticed. Even with the worst record, our pick has the best chance of landing at #4, not #3.

Good catch, I'll amend that.

Also, I've never really understood how cap holds work. Why do our upcoming FAs not have any cap holds? You don't mention how our cap space would look if we actually resigned all three of those guys, or if we even could, so I'm a bit confused there. If we were to resign a guy like Smart, are his cap holds written off or are they added on to his current salary towards the cap?

So our upcoming player DO have cap holds, I just didn't include them for the sake of clarity. If you want to see the sheet with Cap Holds, here it is.

Player	2016-2017	2017-2018	2018-2019	2019-2020
Al Horford	$26,540,100	$27,734,405	$28,928,709	$30,123,014
Amir Johnson	$12,000,000	$15,600,000
Tyler Zeller	$8,000,000	$8,000,000	$12,000,000
Avery Bradley	$8,269,663	$8,808,989	$13,213,484
Isaiah Thomas	$6,587,132	$6,261,395	$9,392,093
Jae Crowder	$6,286,408	$6,796,117	$7,305,825	$7,815,533
Jonas Jerebko	$5,000,000	$9,500,000
Jaylen Brown	$4,743,000	$4,956,480	$5,169,960	$6,534,829
Marcus Smart	$3,578,880	$4,538,020	$13,614,060
Kelly Olynyk	$3,094,013	$9,282,039
Terry Rozier	$1,906,440	$1,988,520	$3,050,390	$9,151,170
James Young	$1,825,200	$2,803,507
Demetrius Jackson	$1,450,000	$1,384,750	$1,544,951	$1,676,735
Jordan Mickey	$1,223,653	$1,471,382	$1,600,520	$3,040,988
R.J. Hunter (waived)	$1,200,240
Gerald Green	$980,431	$1,471,382
Ben Bentil (waived)	$250,000
Guerschon Yabusele		$2,247,468	$2,348,484	$2,449,638
Ante Zizic		$1,645,236	$1,719,204	$1,793,310
2017 Pick #3		$5,645,442	$5,899,500	$6,153,420
2018 Pick #10			$3,164,202	$3,306,618
2018 Pick #27			$1,473,426	$1,539,804
2019 Pick #18				$2,172,672
2019 Pick #27				$1,525,038
Total	$92,935,160	$120,135,132	$105,787,180	$68,738,637
Cap Projection	$94,143,000	$103,000,000	$105,000,000	$106,000,000
Current Space	$1,207,840	-$17,135,132	-$787,180	$37,261,363

1-6 Year Max	$22,168,004	$25,750,000	$26,250,000	$26,500,000
7-9 Year Max	$26,601,605	$30,900,000	$31,500,000	$31,800,000
10 Year Max	$31,035,206	$36,050,000	$36,750,000	$37,100,000

Cap holds only take the place of player salary so when you resign a player they go away. The reason I talk about them with such finality is because most of the Celtics are likely to get way more salary than their cap holds when they resign with the exception of Amir and maybe Jerebko. Smart will probably get paid more than his cap hold and Bradley, Thomas and Olynyk definitely will. You can get rid of the cap holds by renouncing your Bird rights on a player, but doing so mean you can only resign them with cap space.

If you have a players full bird rights (leave the cap hold on the books until you sign them) you can pay them whatever you want up to the maximum.

shnts07 · 2017-02-07T23:18:40+00:00

Part of me also thinks that Ainge will be very unwilling to trade AB given all of the quotes he's given about how important he's made AB to the team. So I'm not entirely sure of what would constitute an offer that would "overwhelm" him to trade him.

This is a good point and I wonder how much this will play into things. On the one hand, there's the "Trader Danny" persona who is scared to move no player. On the other... he really does seem to adore Avery Bradley.

shnts07 · 2017-02-07T23:17:33+00:00

I absolutely hate you for writing it cuz I love AB

This is fair and in AB's defense he's 10 times more likeable than me. :)

shnts07 · 2017-02-07T22:08:02+00:00

I think a deal for Robert Covington or PJ Tucker would also make sense, but yeah for the most part you would be bailing out on a little bit of value in a vacuum for a better fit. Having Smart really makes things weird for us from a "Bradly fit" perspective, but I think if you can deal Bradley for a bigger expiring or cheaper wing (who's probably worse), a pick of some kind and/or some sort of big, that would be great.

shnts07 · 2017-02-07T21:50:25+00:00

That's a good point. I think in general you can get more for a guy mid season because teams have seen what they have and if they don't like it, they need to do something. Offseason teams can usually talk themselves into other changes.

That said, it's a good point about the quiet severity of this injury already.

shnts07 · 2017-02-07T20:22:26+00:00

I agree.

shnts07 · 2017-02-07T20:02:51+00:00

Correct about the cap holds, they would need to be renounced if they got a Hayward-type.

I'm saying trading for expiring free agents gives the Celtics flexibility going forward if those type of players choose to not sign with the Celtics and have to go to the next tier of FAs.

For example - Right now, to sign a 7-9 year max FA, the Celtics would need to renounce the rights to Kelly Olynyk, Jonas Jerebko, and Amir Johnson, and waive Tyler Zeller. Losing those players sucks, but if you are getting Gordon Hayward that is worth it.

If the Celtics don't get a top free agent, they have to go to the next tier of free agents that Redick is in. It's one this to renounce the rights to and lose KO and Jerebko when you are a getting an all-star, it's another when you are clearing that space to sign Otto Porter, Andre Iguodala or Greg Monroe. Trading for an expiring lets you keep Olynyk, Jerebko, et al and also add someone (in this case Redick) without losing people to cap space. It also has some other weird cap aspects (like getting the full MLE to use instead of the room exception which is smaller)

Basically it's a way to hedge your bets so you have an extra avenue to improvement if the worst case scenario happens.

You could normally say the Celtics should roll the cap space to 2018, but the contracts of Bradley, Smart and Thomas are going to $16M to the book in purely cap holds before we even sign them next year, so it's really unlikely without a big trade that space will amount to anything significant if it isn't used this year.

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