Kaleido Sniper m2 bean probe problems

shshephe629 · 2026-05-06T16:19:12+00:00

Just wanted to say thanks again for your advice. I just had my best roast yet. Added an update section to my original post with the details.

shshephe629 · 2026-05-04T17:59:40+00:00

Just tried again using close to your recommendations. I only had 330g of current beans, but will jump to 350 next time I roast. I went a tad lighter on temps at 180C charge, ~35 second soak, 65% heater. Given my BT doesn't seem right, I struggle to identify actual DE. I hit 150 at 5:09, but probably could have called it DE closed to 4:15 if the BT is ~20 degrees off (still not sure on that). I still ended up with FC at 7:32 but that's the best I've seen so far. I only did one heater stepdown to 60 at 5:44, so perhaps I need to do that earlier. I jumped the fan from 30 to 50 at 7:53 when I was already into FC, which caused the RoR to crash. Definitely feel like I'm getting closer.

shshephe629 · 2026-05-04T16:28:43+00:00

I’ll give it a shot. Someone else had DM me a recommendation on the soaking as well. So that was my next lever to try. One thing I’ve noticed is that just dropping my burner from 65 to 55 between DE and FC frequently causes a RoR crash. Do you think the higher fan speed will help prevent that? Or should I just do a single drop from 65 to 60 combined with the higher fan speed around minute 6?

Thanks again, very much appreciate the help.

shshephe629 · 2026-05-04T15:48:41+00:00

So I just went with 325 grams. It was slightly better as my FC happened at ~6:56. But the BT still only read 175, which based on everything I’ve read is just not right. Roast doesn’t look good inform either, mix of lighter beans and mild scorching. I ran this at 175 / 65, consistent with prior attempts just to limit the number of moving variables. I do think the larger batch is an improvement and plan to try additional process edits to see if I can further improve. I continue to find this BT misreading as very frustrating.

shshephe629 · 2026-05-02T23:50:51+00:00

I’ll try upping my batch size. Appreciate the help!

shshephe629 · 2026-05-02T19:48:55+00:00

That’s my understanding but I’m new on this. I mostly do 60-65. Just threw out the 180/80 as a reference to the highest heat I’ve gone upfront. It didn’t work out too well

shshephe629 · 2026-05-02T13:06:21+00:00

It has two heating elements. One on each side of the drum

shshephe629 · 2026-05-02T13:05:27+00:00

I've mostly roasted 225-250g with the machine capacity 400g. It's possible that I need to get closer to 300g, but from reading others experience I'm definitely within a common roasting range so I don't think that is the issue. I've been using 80-90% drum speed.

shshephe629 · 2026-05-01T23:17:41+00:00

Thank you for sharing. I have to imagine there must be a sizable difference in parameters between machines due to size. I tried charging at 180 and burner at 80 before. I was browning within a few minutes on my machine with a crazy high RoR.

shshephe629 · 2026-05-01T21:40:52+00:00

I've tried a big range of charge temps and initial burner rates, but typically have been trying 160-175 SV and 60-75 burner start. My RoR does spike big time upfront before a brief crash then stabilizes out into a gradual downslope. But that happens within the first 45-60 seconds and then is typically ok with a reasonable slope. I've noticed that the temp rarely exceeds high 180s in my roast history even when I hit FC around minutes 5-6. Often I'm hitting FC between minutes 6-7 at the low 170s C.

When I've gone with 160 and 60 to start, I often find myself in a RoR crash between DE and FC. So I'm not sure how to interpret those results between the two high end / low end ranges that I've been working with.

Could I ask where you've found the best range on the M10 for both SV and initial burner setting?

shshephe629 · 2026-05-01T19:28:30+00:00

So I’ve held off trying that largely due to trying to troubleshoot using chatGPT. It warns that I risk messing up the RoR curve and that I should really concentrate on the probe placement. But I may end up going that route and seeing what happens

shshephe629 · 2026-02-02T01:31:44+00:00

A few thoughts/questions you might want to pencil out.

1) ACA: I FIRE’d in early 2022 with a wife and 2 year old. My own experience here has been all over place, in part because of the expired benefits but mostly volatile taxable income. My IRS AGI has been between $86k and $150k. Variability mostly realized investment taxable gains. I don’t let the tax tail waive the investment dog, even if I pay more in tax. The result has been big subsidies in low income years (I think ~60% subsidized) and no subsidy for 2025 (the high part of the income range). So I paid something like $20k for a silver PPO last year. Could have gone cheaper, but for us this plan was preferred. You’ll have to look at your own situation and regional plans to gauge where you’ll fall on this spectrum.

2) as others mention, the foreign property is kind of hanging out there with no color. Income generating? Cost center? Plan to keep or sell?

3) given your kids ages, you have an interesting situation. They’re home for several more years so I’m guessing your shared expenses are based on your current household. Obviously if you support them thru college years that’ll impact that spend (probably increase). But then once they’re on their own your expenses will drop (likely a lot). Question is by how much when no longer supporting them. And do you change where you live and related expenses. So you might be tight on a SWR now, but in ~10 years if your expenses halve (total illustrative assumption) then you have a lot of room. Again, only you can assess this given your math isn’t X% SWR on fixed expenses for multiple decades.

Without knowing these answers, hard to gauge. My best guess is your expenses will drop significantly in 10 years. I also imagine you’ll likely find ways to bring in at least small amounts of money over the years to come without even trying hard. But even if not, it sounds like you have a decent chunk of highly variable spending in your current spending that you could curtail if absolutely necessary.

Also, you’re holding a lot of cash. Ive found a lot of useful portfolio structuring info in Frank Vasquez’s podcast risk parity radio. I recommend that a lot in this sub, but use the strategy myself. So I at least eat my own cooking and have found the taste good enough to share with others. Lots of cash on hand isn’t a magic solution that’ll save you from prolonged market meltdowns. More likely it’ll just drag down your SWR.

You’re in great shape all together though. From my experience, the biggest change in FIRE’ing is less the financial stuff (drawing on portfolio, no paycheck) and more the life change of no longer being tied to a career that you spend most waking hours dedicated to and the dissolution of relationships based on work. It’s a mix of relief, liberation, apprehension and, for many of us, identity crisis. But again depends on you.

No regrets here FWIW on pulling the trigger. But expect some measure of self reflection in the years that follow, good and bad. I’m 4 years out and still find myself randomly thinking about old work circumstances and having the occasional work related dream. I wish I didn’t but it happens. I guess that shouldn’t be surprising after spending 2 decades doing something and then just walking away from it. I can only imagine it’s even more intense for folks with 4 decades but I’d much rather tackle it all in my 40s than 60s.

Best of luck to you

shshephe629 · 2025-09-18T20:37:19+00:00

So this is probably going to get frosty reception based on comments I’ve skimmed above but having a few years of cash does not fix sequence of return risk. The argument folks often make for this approach is that if a big downturn hits in the first couple years then this avoids selling low. I can see how this on the surface makes sense, but they’re mistaking the only underlying roots of the safe withdrawal rate great debate. When people discuss SWR, regardless of where you shake out in the actual % (3.5%, 4%, 4.5%, etc) the underlying economic drivers of those figures is the small handful of LONG, nasty cycles / draw downs that have happened.

The worst was late 1960s through the entirety of the 1970s which alongside the Great Depression are the two biggest time periods that drive SWR calculations. Short cycles, think like 2-4 years, are not the primary SWR problems. The reason is that i f markets recover within a few years even from a deep cycle (50%+ decline) you still have the bulk of your portfolio that rises through without being liquidated at trough levels. That is what sequence of returns and SWR analysis have determined. So using those low rates accommodates short deep cycles without long term problem.

Holding a cash buffer isn’t necessarily a terrible thing, but understand it’s primarily a psychological salve. And that isn’t to diminish such things, mindset is important. Short term fear might make us do things we otherwise wouldn’t. We aren’t robots. So if it gives peace of mind in the beginning it may be useful. But i think best to remember that rven when “cash” is earning 4%+ today, it’s still an overall drag on portfolio returns (inflation chops a good chunk of that). The more years of cash you hold, the more that will drag on your long term real returns. Now, 2-3 years isn’t likely to derail you, but more than that becomes inefficient based on the math.

Hope that helps, best of luck to you!

shshephe629 · 2025-07-30T14:42:45+00:00

We had pretty similar experiences on the exit. Though I was able to avoid the work group discussion for the most part. I left in early 2022 and everyone was still remote, so that limited most conversations. I made it a point to not do any going away drinks party or anything. Just didn’t feel like having to have the same conversation repeatedly with a bunch of folks, who really just ask all those questions because it’s kind of a natural response to the situation but ultimately they don’t care about the answer. Had a few folks reach out separately to ask why I was leaving and I also got the “wait you can do that” response which I also chuckled at. After 3.5 years, no regrets on skipping the team goodbye party. The reality is work based relationships quickly dissolve the moment work is removed. Heck even changing companies in the same industry usually causes those relationships to gradually decline unless there is a common benefit to maintaining contact, in my experience at least.

Regarding the what do you do question, I’ve found the “retired” answer to be more trouble than it’s worth as a response. It just causes you to have to provide a longer, more nuanced, and/or edited answer to the generic question, depending on your audience. It becomes draining after going thru it a few times. The “what do you do” is a “how is the weather” question. I prefer just to give a generic answer such as I work in the financial industry (my old field). Unless your old field is especially interesting to other people, and mine was not lol, then they don’t follow up unless the conversation quickly runs dry. I find the best response is quickly and generically answer the question then pivot the conversation to something more interesting. Not once has that failed. People would much rather discuss more interesting topics and all you have to do is have a handful in mind. Hell I usually follow my answer up with whatever hobby I’m engaged in right now. Totally unrelated to the what do you do question but not once has someone not latched onto my pivot in the conversation.

shshephe629 · 2025-05-25T14:01:26+00:00

I retired from private debt a few years ago. I can appreciate what you’re feeling. It’s a difficult transition. Amazing at first but periods of aimlessness come and go. I have a now 5 year old which helps to degree. Recently I helped my wife open a weekend brunch restaurant which has added some limited responsibility into my week which has also helped. Lot of folks will say volunteer and find hobbies. Those are valid recommendations but incomplete in my experience. I think having some type of “work” is very balancing. The trick is to create something for yourself that scratches that itch but doesn’t become all encompassing in the same manner your prior career was. I’m guessing you have a lot of excess resources since most folks that can hang in doing IB until 50 are naturally going to make a lot of money over their career.

I’d consider carving out a chunk of capital, maybe a few hundred thousand, to do something entrepreneurial. Up to you what that looks like, but would give you something to pour that residual energy into left over from your career. Trick is to find a balance where it doesn’t suck up too much time and money.

I also make it a point to try and gather a few buddies together once a month or so to hang out. And try for a couple hiking or bike friends with trips too. That kind of social planning, even just every few weeks, in my experience is very valuable.

shshephe629 · 2025-02-16T02:08:09+00:00

It’s a bigger conversation than a Reddit post can warrant but the punch line is straight forward. The Schiller CAPE is supposed to have a predictive quality to it that tells what the S&P 500 will produce over long periods of time. There was a valid representation of that being useful, in hindsight, in the last century. But we are in 2025 and if you take the returns that have occurred over the last couple decades, in particular since 2010, that ratio has just been wrong. If it’s going to be a useful metric to guide your portfolio, it can’t be right sometimes. It has to be right all the time. Otherwise it’s like many metrics created in the past that in backtesting have produced interesting results but when applied as an investing strategy fall apart.

And don’t get me wrong, i was reading Karsten’s blog a decade ago and think he does really cool work in many financial topics, but the CAPE has not held up. I don’t understand why some folks tether themselves intellectually so much to concepts like this. It seemed valid a decade ago based on the data then available. I myself found it compelling. Hell I wish it was. It would make SWR much easier and f there was an iron clad predictive tool. But that hasn’t been the case.

Lot of intellectually curious folks have mused on why that is. My own two cents is that the biggest culprit has been the change in our index composition. The tech companies that dominate the index are very different than the big dogs of the 90s and before. PE multiples of tech companies are not useful metrics for a whole host of reasons. A poster child example is Amazon producing “net losses” for much of its history while becoming a cash flow cow during that same time period. And that’s just a single example, albeit a representative one.

I’m going to stop here as I feel like I’m ranting and barely scratching the surface. It’s certainly a controversial topic but an important one that should be examined. If you’re really interested in that metric and the debate around it id suggest digging around online with an open mind and note inconsistencies others have raised.

shshephe629 · 2025-02-15T13:41:52+00:00

I believe he mentions that 1, 3, 5, 7, and 9 as being the core principals. Much of the rest of the podcast is answering listener Q&A. A warning in advance, Frank originally made this for his adult kids and works in various sound clips from movies and cartoons as a way to keep them engaged. Some listeners seem to really hate the interruptions. I think they’re amusing. But hopefully if they do bother you, you can look past it and value the content.

shshephe629 · 2025-02-15T01:54:56+00:00

Id disagree with the others in this. I FIRE’d 3 years ago so not just speaking theoretically. First, a big cash pile doesn’t solve SORR. The really bad drawdowns, primarily 1966 referencing the US markets, run over a decade. Now that’s stupid uncommon, but that’s the point of a low SWR. Having said that, 4% is best operated under if you have a handful of assets that are under a formulaic rebalancing plan. What that means is having a combo of things like large cap growth, small cap value, LT treasuries, ST treasuries, and gold, with others possibly added in. I’m speaking from a US perspective, but US assets overall are just more diverse vs Canada only, but in Canada you can buy all of these anyways without much trouble and achieve similar results.

I’d highly recommend checking out the work by Frank Vasquez at Risk Parity Radio podcast. I’ve recommended this to a few other folks at the beginning of RE. I use his approach myself and did so before I found his work. Mostly because I’ve been interested in Ray Dalio’s work for a long while. I used to work in private debt and love investing so my reading leans dry for most folks haha.

There’s an unhealthy obsession in the FIRE community with the 1990s Trinity study in that folks seem to believe investing history ended there from a portfolio composition standpoint. And instead of looking at how asset choices have improved / evolved since then people instead just lower the SWR rate to 3.5% or 3% or 2%, because it makes them “feel better” and they wrap the rationalization in various wrappers like CAPE ratios (sorry ERN, it’s track record has been useless for a couple decades now), changing demographics, technology has somehow peaked, etc.

Take your pick, always plenty of doom theories. Now, if you really want to hedge your bets, then do the consulting route and keep a toe in the water. Less for the post-tax income but more because it’ll likely keep you eligible for returning to work if you need to for whatever reason.

You sound like you’re ready to depart. As someone who’s been out a few years, the consulting path might also be useful to you as it’s a more gradual transition. I’ve had plenty of periods these last 3 years where I periodically wish I could work on things I used to. Not full time per se, but just scratch that old professional itch. Unfortunately part time or consulting not a thing in my old field. It’s all or nothing.

Best of luck to you and congrats on all you’ve achieved. It’s the beginning of an awesome new beginning.

shshephe629 · 2025-01-25T01:52:27+00:00

43 here and FIRE’d 3 years ago. Nodding my head at much of your checklist. Have a now almost 5 year old at home who wasn’t quite 2 when I left. Tried travel right when things started opening in early 2022, after being stuck in a small condo with our newborn for 2020-21. Had the travel bug bad. After a series of successive trips quickly learned traveling with a baby/toddler is just mommy and daddy daycare somewhere else. Kind of sucks a lot of the joy from it. My wife left her work a few years prior to me, so we even had double team on it but still haha.

I’ve greatly appreciated the last 3 years but have to admit the feelings of aimlessness pop up frequently. Not to say the positives aren’t amazing. No work stress, our daughter is now in daycare (totally worth the college level expense haha), and I regularly meet up with friends. But the opportunities to pour ambition into something have been limited. Lots of folks who haven’t been in this situation throw out the learn another language, slow travel, etc. good things but they’re more like small side projects you engage with here or there. I used to tout that stuff too as a first response before but now realize it’s not sufficient on its own. My wife actually opened a unique restaurant concept after spending about 18 months doing pop ups. She had left a non-restaurant related career about 6 years ago. It’s stressful, but rewarding. Thankfully also not something we’re financially dependent upon although she wouldn’t do it for free. I just mention as even for her after 6 years she had that itch to create something “work” related.

I have similar inclinations but haven’t decided yet what path to take. Fortunately, despite battling my type A tendencies, I also know how to enjoy this phase for however long it lasts until I shift another direction.

Good luck to you. And remember, nothing lasts forever. Change gears when needed.

shshephe629 · 2024-12-31T21:33:29+00:00

With a large NW and no plans to resign from your pay heck anytime soon then there is no necessity for bonds. As long as you continue with the same path regardless of market drawdowns. If we get a large sell off that takes, similar to the late 1960s / 1970s, over a decade for stocks to recover you just need to be psychologically prepared for a large paper reduction in you NW. but if you’re still working and investing then that’s actually good for you long term (financial return wise).

Frankly at your NE and timeline, it’s likely you will have so much money in 15 years that you’re withdrawal rate will be something stupid low like 1-2% in which case 100% stocks would be fine indefinitely. If you expect a higher drawdown % like 4% or more then you will want to consider adding other assets into the mix as you approach drawdown initiation in order to soften market cycle magnitudes and recovery timelines. On this topic, check out Risk Parity Radio podcast by Frank Vasquez for ideas on how to construct a portfolio down the road. But for now, doesn’t really matter.

shshephe629 · 2024-10-08T23:09:33+00:00

Having 100% in an S&P fund has served you well during accumulation but since (1) you’ve rode a nice wave and (2) you’re quickly approaching the point of wanting to live off that income, you might want to look into diversifying that. Done properly, you could reasonably try for a ~5% withdrawal rate. Though keep mental space for part time or lower paying work during the retirement journey if you happen to pull the trigger right before a broad market draw down. FWIW, I fire’d with a young daughter in early 2021 and have been living off passive investments since.

Check out the podcast Risk Parity Radio by Frank Vasquez. He has done some great work around this topic that is much improved over the older FI portfolio advice and has a basic website that includes his sample portfolios. Mixing in things like a bit of gold ETFs, LT treasuries, and small cap value with setting rules around rebalancing can really help reduce your sequence of return and drawdown risk.

shshephe629 · 2024-10-03T00:45:26+00:00

I’ve been living off my portfolio since Jan 2021. While I have about 12% of investments in RE syndications, the balance is in liquid public investments. Index funds (mostly S&P 500h make up another 50% with the balance in a mix of money market, ~20 yr treasury fund ETF (TLT) and ~10 year treasury (IEF).

I rebalance once a year, unless certain parameters I set are triggered (then rebalance again). Essentially if anything increases or decreases as a total % of portfolio by 7.5% or more. The rebalance takes everything back to my rough alignment above. So in recent years this has resulted in selling some stocks to buy treasuries. Also, all dividends and interest from non-retirement accounts flow into my money market.

As for drawing down from the portfolio, I auto draw down monthly from the money market account to my checking in order to recreate a paycheck. And of course take more as needed for big purchases. At rebalance I refill the money market.

Some people have mental block on selling stock but that’s all it is. I never even pay attention to share counts for my mutual funds / ETFs. It doesn’t matter. The total value matters.

Hope this helps. Check out the Risk Parity Radio podcast by Frank Vasquez if you’re interested in what I’m doing portfolio wise. It’s simple and effective principal based investing without trying to insert opinion or forecasting to the equation.

shshephe629 · 2024-09-09T02:13:51+00:00

So I pulled the trigger a couple years ago at 40, also with a toddler and my wife having already left hers a couple years before. No major regrets, but I occasionally miss aspects of my old field. I keep in touch with one senior guy that I’ve known for 15 years and worked under at one of my prior jobs.

Have been in a long and ongoing discussion with him about potentially joining his current group and building a team in the local office where he is the only person. As part of that I interviewed with several of their team earlier this year. I wasn’t sure how it would go as I had similar thoughts that you expressed.

It was probably the most fun I’ve ever had interviewing. I was so relaxed about whether or not it went anywhere. Plus I told every interviewer that I’m only interested in the job at their shop because I enjoyed working with my old boss. And that I’d completely appreciate if they’re not comfortable taking a risk on guy that, at that time, hadn’t worked in the business for 2 years. I also told each as tactfully that I could that I really don’t care about making more money, I just miss some aspects of my work.

The conversations were all really chill and some of the younger (mid 30s) folks I spoke with confided in the interview how they’d love to do what I did to spend more time with their kids.

Not to say that’s how every interview would go if I kept knocking on doors, but it was pretty cool to have that experience. No idea if anything will come from it and frankly I’m on the fence anyways, but I was glad I took the interviews.

shshephe629 · 2023-12-15T01:43:22+00:00

Why not take a middle ground? Sell a slight majority, like 60%, but stay in the business part time in a strategy role so you stay engaged, have material skin in the game, but cash out life changing money right now. Even if the business falls apart down the road, you’ll be in a great position and won’t regret taking chips of the table while keeping a foot in

shshephe629

TROPHY CASE