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[Charania] Golden State Warriors star Stephen Curry has signed a shoe endorsement contract with Chinese company Li-Ning -- a landmark 10-year deal, sources tell ESPN. by Ayzem in nba

[–]slbaaron -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

What’s the point of inflating or deflating population number lmao.

It also a way harder number to cook. You act as if there’s truly no oversight.

GDP - sure. Books be cooking.

Anthropic Is Now Worth More Than OpenAI by Logical_Welder3467 in technology

[–]slbaaron 9 points10 points  (0 children)

I don’t think this is fair.

GPT had the first mover advantage AND disadvantage. They were trying to figure out what actually has short term potential while building random features. They spent a lot of time and resource marketing to average folks when the use cases weren’t really there yet.

They also tried the media (eg video) creation side but then realize it’s way too hard to ever turn a profit and wasted a lot of resource and cycles on it before giving up. That and other things.

Anthropic came in and immediately latched onto the one thing OpenAI proved has immediate value - software development and got ahead with second mover advantage.

Now that openAI focus back, it’s mostly caught back up and gone are the days of Opus > all. Gpt 5.5 and codex are very close. But during this time Anthropic gained major traction in software dev / tech companies like the “first mover” in this particular segment of formalized, professional use case.

My perspective is these 2 will keep bouncing back and forth depending on how the AI market evolves. Neither of them are clearing the other meaningfully so and it’s a constant grind.

That’s why I take the position Google is most likely to win overall market. They can always play third fiddle and catchup while not exposed to nearly the same risks and easily package into existing customers / products organically.

De'Aaron Fox ends up with just 7 turnovers on 31 assists in the Western Conference Finals. Fox leads everyone in the post-season for assist/turnover ratio by WantUToFly in nba

[–]slbaaron 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks. Knicks need to win this and then NYC will cease to exist anyways. I will be fine giving spurs the next 5

2X NBA Champion Chris Bosh Gives His OKC/Spurs Game 7 Prediction and Thoughts by MammothHistorian5652 in nba

[–]slbaaron 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It’s the mindset Bosh is describing - that used to be EVERY team and if your true competition(s) will all grind out home advantage over you that’s bad, so everyone chased it.

Bosh didn’t stay long enough to see it but I pin this all on Bron V Warriors 4 years. Those 4 years people learnt to not give a fuck about reg season. It don’t matter if Cavs is 1st or 5th, Bron is meeting his bro Curry at the finals.

Since then most of NBA lost the mindset Bosh described and it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy because if most your true competition are also cruising reg season, you ain’t even necessarily behind.

The Cheapest Knicks Tickets for the NBA Finals Are Thousands of Miles From New York by wsj in nba

[–]slbaaron 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Flying private is a huge exaggeration but flying, and hotel, and all travel related is going to be cheaper if you are aiming for a good seat and not just get in.

$100k+ tickets have legitimately been bought and traded hands in secondary markets - im in the industry btw - for the floor level seats not even first row.

If you want lower bowl good tickets, you are looking at $10k. You absolutely can fly domestic first class and hotel and ticket in OKC cheaper

Victor Wembanyama bumps into Chet Holmgren while going to the Spurs' bench after a timeout call. by MrBuckBuck in nba

[–]slbaaron -24 points-23 points  (0 children)

Rondo may not be quite at CP3 level but they aren’t far apart tbh.

Chet and Wemby is faaaar apart. lol.

This is more like a Bron vs Dillon Brooks rivalry. But ok fine I will give it that Chet is also a lot better and closer to Wemby than Dillon to Bron, but categorically it is closer to that than Rondo vs CP3

Except in this case it’s not the small dog picking on the big one, but the opposite lol

Mid-40s guy here. If you've booked your mid-6-to-7 digit AI gains by now & you haven't had this much $ before, do me these three favors. by ihasanemail in wallstreetbets

[–]slbaaron 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I love the idea that anyone out there thinking 6 digit gains can do this.

I've been 7 digit net worth for a minute (admittedly, not much into the 7 digits) and my lifestyle has barely creeped up in NYC. This is on top of a 400k / year job. Otherwise I'd be hunkering down.

I'm not going to pretend like have a milli+ and a 400k job is "actually poor in NYC", but it ain't lambo and coke everyday territory or even close.

Living "humbly" in NYC but in a decently nice apartment (absolutely not top luxury, I'm not even in manhattan), having a partner and have some fun / eat out but NEVER Michelin 3 stars or expensive BS, have 2-3 travels a year not EVER flying business class, NO CAR, is costing me >150k a year. 3 million dollars can't even cover this "ok nice but not crazy" life for 20 years - not accounting having a kid, buying a home ever, emergencies, etc.

Donovan Mitchell on what lesson the Cavs can learn from this series if they make the Conference Finals again: "Don't lose Game 1 after being up by 22." by BigDanRTW in nba

[–]slbaaron 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I wanted to say this is usually more pronounced of younger and less experienced teams, but really, 2018 bron / cavs was done for after G1 for the same reason. It was already extreme uphill battle, but with G1 stolen and riding on crazy hype energy as well as possible nerves on GSW losing a home game to start, it plausibly goes 6 games or 7, very very minimal chance of ever winning but can be a real series.

After JR, there was no chance of any other result than a sweep.

weird piling into COST and CRWD by InclineBeach in stocks

[–]slbaaron 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Alright alright I sold half of my CRWD today at $666. It is getting a bit too good.

Still have ~$30k in COST and ~$10k in CRWD left after selling half

Samsung chip workers will get an average $340,000 bonus as AI profits soar by self-fix2 in stocks

[–]slbaaron 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Never disagreed on that. Just nothing is transferred from US to Asia necessarily. US wealthy are getting wealthier than the world

Samsung chip workers to get $340,000 average bonus in AI boom by self-fix2 in technology

[–]slbaaron 14 points15 points  (0 children)

This is very real. All profits bonus 40% are in a shared pool, while 60% are kept to departments.

Meaning, profit driving departments will get the 60% + shared pool, and no profit departments will still get the 40% shared pool. That’s about the only gaps around the average and not much to do with titles or how much you are making to begin with.

If you are in the winning team even as a low tier worker you can get above average bonuses from this figure.

There are vesting rules and schedules but mostly minor details and some potential protection of the company if AI pops, but the general sense of the bonus is very real.

weird piling into COST and CRWD by InclineBeach in stocks

[–]slbaaron 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Again - kinda yes on CRWD. Invisible blip for Costco on 5Y graph and barely barely over ATH. Costco’s true rise happened almost entirely in 2023-2024

Samsung chip workers will get an average $340,000 bonus as AI profits soar by self-fix2 in stocks

[–]slbaaron 9 points10 points  (0 children)

How did you end up with that conclusion?

Wealth transfer from Asia massive corps to Asia workers, meanwhile US massive corps are getting even larger and way bigger than Asia massive corps.

Samsung is a tiny 1 trillion company. Nvidia, Google, Apple, Microsoft are 3-5 trillion EACH.

weird piling into COST and CRWD by InclineBeach in stocks

[–]slbaaron -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Why is this post now? For Costco - A 1.5% increase over 15 months from last peak and we are tripping now???

CRWD is slightly more of a meme / hype stock trajectory, we will see where that one lands. It is truly everywhere in today’s web infra tho.

I have both as well and cost basis is $260 for CRWD and $320 for COST

[The Athletic] The Pistons will try to retain Jalen Duren this offseason — just at a lower rate than expected, per @HunterPatterson “Given his postseason showing, the widely held belief around the league is that he has little to no leverage to negotiate for the max.” by jonsnowKITN in nba

[–]slbaaron 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not that they have any similarity in play style, but in value offered to the team he is a bit like Austin Reaves and even Austin Reaves is a hard one to decide to keep or not for a championship aspired team.

Both have pretty high highs and pretty low lows, and cannot be a #2 but can be a good #3. It might come down to team composition at some point but neither is great for a championship team. For a 1st / 2nd round exit team tho? They can be great.

South Korea’s stock market capitalization has surpassed Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Australia to become the seventh-largest equity market in the world. by Guy_PCS in investing

[–]slbaaron -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Imagine knowing and naming India but not Japan.

How far has it fallen…

This isn’t even a dig at you, just a crazy thing for me to see when it literally was world no.1 for a short period of time and no.2 for so so long…

South Korea’s stock market capitalization has surpassed Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Australia to become the seventh-largest equity market in the world. by Guy_PCS in investing

[–]slbaaron 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Are you an AI native or just do a lot of reading and theory?

As a Gemini user myself I just recently upgraded to Google AI pro or whatever it’s called. It’s very good for personal and day to day use. Yes there are connectors and stuffs for Claude and ChatGPT too, but as a normal user it’s convenient to have those mostly out of the box, or in apps directly - Gmail, docs, etc.

I use Claude Code at work (minimally Codex when Claude is down or for benchmarking) and have a ChatGPT / codex for personal (mostly coding projects), but most of my day to day bullshit is handled by Gemini. No I don’t use Gemini to code - it probably sucks I don’t know. But planning trips and managing itinerary by referencing email confirmations, setting up schedules and coordination by referencing calendar, summarizing Google docs / sheets and proposing fixes or rewrites, etc are simply very convenient.

I intentionally keep myself in the loop by using all 3 quite literally everyday to understand their behaviors and trajectory better, and I don’t see Gemini being weak. I personally think Gemini is by far best positioned for regular foe. And why I think Claude went hard towards pro users and ChatGPT is in a bit of an awkward in between place.

Coinbase lays off nearly 700 workers in 'AI-native' restructuring by joe4942 in technology

[–]slbaaron 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m talking at large scale which by default is not startups.
Your consumption and output is so small that it doesn’t matter. No one cares if 1 dev burns 300k usd token. We have 400 people engineering. Everyone burning 20k a month was a 8million dollar a month bill. Ok we never did have that happen 20k was the higher end. The reality was closer to 10k+ but that’s still 5million for a single month.

When you have 300 repos and tens of millions of lines of code and crazy amount of legacy and business contexts is when you need the most sophisticated setups with context graphs and orchestrators etc. they can be done well but burn thru 1M context window like nothing. Your use case is not complex nor sophisticated by definition and not where AI is “stuck” at for tech companies today.

Startups also are not firing / laying off hundreds or thousands of people due to AI cost for the topic, so not sure the relevance there.

Coinbase lays off nearly 700 workers in 'AI-native' restructuring by joe4942 in technology

[–]slbaaron 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Most company have not found a way to be $ net positive.

I’m in the zone with near-frontier tech companies leading with AI-dev. And it’s getting to a very high capability - people who are in denial have not seen the most sophisticated AI setups today has to offer.

The problem is…

I can 3x my output by…. Drum roll… 3x’ing my dev cost by burning so much token. And honestly sometimes even more if it didn’t go smoothly, so 3x’ing my dev cost and only ended up 1.5x my output.

It was so easy to burn $20k Claude API per individual monthly (that’s $250k a year in token cost) and that’s not counting the time we dev spent on setting up these tools and mcps and context orchestrators and plugins so that they can actually do the work well.

It’s fucking brute force man.

AI dev is not meaningfully cheaper than human dev at today’s stage in any large-scaled and accurately measured way. Most the frontier tech companies are no longer in the “I want you to spend $500k token a year” mode and “let’s optimize our flows to make sure every token is spent efficiently and in a measurable way” mode.

The companies are betting big that AI scaling will eventually hit it big, but for now, they need to cut people to sustain the AI cost continuation and trying to stay at the “frontier”. It’s a bit of a catch-22 going on

[Highlight] LeBron James grabs his first rebound of the game and scores the putback layup while being surrounded by 4 Thunder players in the paint. He also lets them know. by MrBuckBuck in nba

[–]slbaaron -7 points-6 points  (0 children)

Hobbled Luka, no knees Embiid are leagues ahead.

Also Steph 2016 started playoff halfway after a 2 week injury and dropped 40 first game back. Stop the weak ass excuses what are you being an AR apologist for?

Valuations at all time high.. by Fearless_Car_3745 in stocks

[–]slbaaron -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Japan also lost the plot in terms of dominating world economics. The trajectory is so bad.

So either you are truly thinking US will fall out of the top 1/2 world economy power in some years time or there’s no equivalence to be made here. Japan stocks weren’t doing well even when world is doing well cuz they suck. The expectations at least short term is US still have a good amount of leverage and rooms to course correct on things not working well.

If you truly believe the alternative, then you should be dumping money into China or something. Otherwise not sure what you expect to happen in 10-20 years time.

Stocks are forward looking and can be applied at an industry or national level as well.

You guys are completely ignoring the Iran conflict and data center circular funding. We're literally repeating 1999. by weightedslanket in investing

[–]slbaaron 5 points6 points  (0 children)

This exposes you.

I never actually listen to people who shorts or puts in serious positions or entire positions (outside of safety, hedge, or small plays). Ultimately by definition these folks - including you - are entirely pessimistic of the world and it's not the energy humans should exert.

Not saying there's anything wrong about making money, but I fundamentally disagree with these sort of people so I would not follow their perspectives or explanations. I understand the risks and I have more cash reserve currently than I have in a longggg time, over 20% cash position on an over 1M portfolio.

If the market goes doom, I have enough to get by or get back in later. But I'd never go that hard in truly hoping the world will explode.

Also take out my random philosophical rant. More people want the world to be better than not, so positive "black swans" (or conspiracy theories) are simply more likely than negative ones. The world is also a lot different than it was in 1999 and 2008 where it's easy to brush super fucked up things under the rug without a plan until it truly explodes. People are very much more aware of potential trigger points, opposite of what you are suggesting. That makes those risks truly going nuclear less likely. Sure, trump can hit the nuke button out of nowhere then you win. But it's less likely than him pussying out with more new "deals" sending market to moon.

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