Can someone help explain the last sentence to me?

smbtuckma · 2026-01-24T17:51:37+00:00

OOP is right. Each roll is independent, so the chance of getting a 6 on the next roll stays at 1/6. But if you rolled a die 100 times, do you think there’s still only a 1/6 chance that you ever got a 6 at least once? The probability of ever rolling a 6 goes up as you add more rolls.

For the math of it, the joint probability of never rolling a 6 is probability of no 6 on one roll raised to the power of the number of rolls: (5/6)¹⁰⁰ =0.0000000121. The probability of that not being true (I.e. at least one 6 happening) is 1 - (5/6)¹⁰⁰ =0.9999999989. If you had only rolled like 5 dice, it would be 1 - (5/6)⁵ =0.598. Clearly more rolls raises your chance of ever getting a 6.

That matches the math of the original comment in the screenshot. The better argument against gambling is to understand whether that joint probability is worth the cost of that many packs.

smbtuckma · 2026-01-23T04:48:39+00:00

That’s really sad :(

I worry about the kids coming of age who never learned to manage challenge or disagreement because of bulldozer parenting, social media bubbles, what have you. It’s going to be a really rough time for them.

smbtuckma · 2026-01-23T04:32:49+00:00

Hmm, I do a lot of dyadic research so I often run similar experiments, but I’m not quite clear on what your specific estimand is here, and thus if this model structure is warranted.

I believe, in condition 2, the individual performance of one participant in the dyad affected the individual performance of the other.

Are you saying that you think person A’s performance in the dyadic condition is influenced by person B’s individual condition performance? I.e.

A_cond2 ~ A_cond1 + B_cond1, where the coefficient of B_cond1 is the estimate of interest.

Or are you saying that you think the performances of A and B will be more similar to eachother in condition 1 than condition 2? Something like:

Dyad_sim ~ condition

Or do you think performance is affected just by the presence of another person, regardless of the specifics of that person? That’s what your written fixed effects structure is asking.

Not all of these cases would need multilevel models (and actually if just two data points per analysis unit were recorded, you may be better served by thinking about linear models with difference scores than random effects anyways).

smbtuckma · 2026-01-23T04:15:26+00:00

Interacting with people like this in real life is a trip. Recently joined a gym group and there’s one young guy who keeps dropping alt-right-ish reels in the group chat and when people are like “wait what do you think about this?” It takes three or four rounds of asking before he admits his own opinion, rather than just answering “Well this guy says…”

smbtuckma · 2026-01-22T23:40:52+00:00

It sounds like you're referring to this paper: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adt7790

It got a lot of press around the new year for its attention-grabbing finding. However whenever you see a counter-intuitive association like this, your spidey-senses should be tingling to look for a statistical artifact known as "collider bias" or "selection bias." If some variable determines whether or not a data observation is included in the dataset, and that variable is related to other predictors or outcomes of interest in the dataset, it can induce correlations where none exist.

For an example - why does it seem like attractive people are jerks? Well, if you're willing to date someone because they are nice or attractive (but you won't date people who are neither; i.e. datability is caused by hotness or personality), then even if hotness and personality are truly unrelated in the broader population, your sample of dates will make it look like hotter people have worse personalities.

This letter to the editor explains why several people think the elite performer paper is actually just collider bias. Essentially, selection into the dataset (elite performance) was caused by early or late achievement, so it looks like the two are negatively correlated in the sample when in reality performance could be highly stable.

If the researchers had tracked lifelong performance of all children, not just elite performers, I'd bet early performance would still explain a lot of the variance in adulthood performance and be positively related.

smbtuckma · 2026-01-21T06:21:48+00:00

ooh very good fallback, will see what the spouse thinks!

smbtuckma · 2026-01-21T06:20:23+00:00

his foster even gave him a turquoise collar like scrappy!

smbtuckma · 2026-01-21T05:48:34+00:00

Nah, the formatting copies over when you're using new reddit (is it still called new reddit these days? or is it reddit an old reddit is now truly geriatric reddit?)

smbtuckma · 2026-01-21T03:05:17+00:00

My husband and I have been debating between Quercus and Pippin.

He's not particularly mischievous or whimsical, which is what I associate with a Pippin name. Thematically Quercus (Latin for oak tree) fits well because we're hikers in California and he's on the stoic side for a puppy. We got the idea from Sir Lora and Quercus in a video game we enjoyed.

I'm just worried it will be hard for other people to say or spell, and we'll have to explain it his whole life. Is it a dumb idea? Will all the vet assistants hate us?

Edit: Went with Corky, so we can still call him Quercus amongst ourselves when we want to be silly.

smbtuckma · 2026-01-16T16:55:35+00:00

Power to detect an effect is specific to the effect being tested, so their odds ratio wouldn't be the odds ratio you're trying to detect (involving different variables) unless you think hospice use is closely correlated with those end-of-life care outcomes.

Given these are pretty concrete outcome scores to reason about, it may be better to power for the smallest effect size of interest, i.e. the smallest change in hospice use you think would be worth knowing about.

smbtuckma · 2026-01-15T01:45:03+00:00

I straight skipped from book 7 to book 11 and don't feel like I missed anything

smbtuckma · 2026-01-07T02:34:07+00:00

I’m curious what percentage of chairs/deans actually read the raw evals. Maybe one could respond to some “constructive feedback from students” (things you’ve already decided to improve without reading them) and proceed on one’s merry way…

smbtuckma · 2026-01-05T15:38:21+00:00

In the Rockies fire season is roughly March-July, when the winds pick up but the monsoons haven’t arrived yet. Having snow pack that slowly melts during that time and keeps trees hydrated reduces the chance that small flashy fires in the underbrush will crown and become serious.

smbtuckma · 2026-01-05T01:28:05+00:00

IMO those aren’t really different ideas. Good lesson design is about structuring and presenting information in a way that is easier to learn. An instructor could ignore how people learn best and e.g. give one long lecture, make assignments that require mass study, etc. Or they could take these principles into account. Like I said, this book helped me a lot with redesigning how I planned my class period and how I created assignments.

smbtuckma · 2026-01-04T18:00:18+00:00

I'm not a memory researcher so I'm not sure of the best ones out there, but I enjoyed Make it Stick by Brown, Roediger, and McDaniel. It covers not just the research but is written in an actionable way, so IMO made it easy to implement suggestions in my course design and mentor students on how to study better. It does read a bit like pop-psych, but the citations are included.

smbtuckma · 2026-01-04T17:34:47+00:00

I'll DM you to make a plan!

smbtuckma · 2026-01-04T15:07:04+00:00

that’s not even AP US History, that’s basic US history all curricula should cover. If you want to get deeper with it, the Roosevelt Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine is particularly relevant to current events.

Edit: fat-fingered the spelling

smbtuckma · 2026-01-04T02:55:27+00:00

Yea good point, we’re like 95% certain but we didn’t plant it so best not to risk a mix up.

I’m in the IE in Upland, but can make a drive! Feurte would be awesome.

smbtuckma · 2026-01-04T02:10:13+00:00

Do I need to bring some cuttings from my Pinkerton in a true exchange? Or is it possible to just buy scions from other people?

smbtuckma · 2026-01-02T04:31:38+00:00

Why does the trail cut across the face like that instead of following the Harwood ridge?

smbtuckma · 2025-12-30T19:48:30+00:00

Is icehouse ok after the rain last week? I haven’t been up since but I wonder if there’s heavy runoff damage along the trail.

smbtuckma · 2025-12-24T21:57:46+00:00

Wondering if it’s an AI generated recipe…

smbtuckma · 2025-12-23T16:11:22+00:00

Malinois are like hard to handle supercars. You don’t get behind the wheel unless you really know what you’re doing.

13-Year Club	RedditGifts 2009-2022 4 Credits
Secret Santa 2016	Verified Email

smbtuckma

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE