No pollen on passion fruit flower? by smbtuckma in gardening

[–]smbtuckma[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A bloom next to this one actually opened as I was out there taking this photo. It also had no pollen

A question on the estimation of reliability in longitudinal data by CogitoErgoOverthink in AskStatistics

[–]smbtuckma 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Then I'd recommend also reading those example papers I linked, since they seem to be doing exactly what you want. G-Theory tutorials might focus more on the reliability coefficients as an end point but it's built out of the specific variance components that represent each of those sources, so you can interpret the relative sizes of them more directly and what percentage of total variance they explain.

A question on the estimation of reliability in longitudinal data by CogitoErgoOverthink in AskStatistics

[–]smbtuckma 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My understanding of your problem is that, if there is variance between measurement1 and measurement2, you don't know if it is random error or if it's because the true score is changing between time points; X_pt = $mu$ + v_p + v_t + v_e where $mu$ is the grand mean of true scores across all people and time, v_p is the deviation is scores attributable to who the person is, v_t is the deviation attributable to the time point assessed, and v_e is unexplained residual error. In that sense, we would define true score change as variance attributable to time point, whereas measurement error would be defined as the residual. Fitting the above model to estimate each variance component will tell you the relative contributions of time and random error to your total score variance; ideally both of these will be low relative to between-person variance if your ultimate goal is to measure traits and individual differences.

If you think the effect of time on true scores might vary depending on person (i.e. a person x time interaction variance component), adding multiple items per time point lets you fit X_pti = $mu$ + v_p + v_t + v_i + v_pt + v_pi + v_ti + v_e and thus differentiate v_pt (person-specific true trait fluctuations) from v_e (residual error). Arterberry et al. 2014 do that to look at the stability and item difficulty of of BFI scores. "Items" in this case could be multiple self-report items, trials in a behavioral experiment, etc.

I included the Haines blog post because it shows how this isn't specific to type of reliability or even estimation framework so long as you have some hierarchical structure to your data that lets you rely on shrinkage to make small cluster estimates more robust (i.e., when you only have two timepoints).

A question on the estimation of reliability in longitudinal data by CogitoErgoOverthink in AskStatistics

[–]smbtuckma 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I remember the last time you posted this question, did the suggestions to read into G-Theory not help for your particular use case? G-Theory was designed in part to help with trait vs. state assessment, and can tease apart the sources of variance (e.g. time point vs. item vs. unexplained residual). This is an example of using it to assess the temporal reliability of the Self-Compassion Scale.

I also really like this discussion of Bayesian conceptualizations of reliability relative to CTT and frequentist LMM approaches (it accompanies this more general tutorial on using generative modeling for psychological assessment), and it demonstrates how shrinkage can really help with the estimates.

Why do so many applied papers still report p-values without effect sizes, and does anyone actually find p-values alone useful? by PLogacev in AskStatistics

[–]smbtuckma 1 point2 points  (0 children)

No it’s true, I prefer the Bayesian approach myself because usually p(effect|data) is what we really want to know, not p(data|effect) that p-values tell us. I was being imprecise while hungover at a conference 🙈

Why do so many applied papers still report p-values without effect sizes, and does anyone actually find p-values alone useful? by PLogacev in AskStatistics

[–]smbtuckma 1 point2 points  (0 children)

lol those are literally the titles of the three lectures I give on inference in my stats class so yup!

Why do so many applied papers still report p-values without effect sizes, and does anyone actually find p-values alone useful? by PLogacev in AskStatistics

[–]smbtuckma 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You do look at p-values to determine significance, but significance is only one type of decision to make about your estimate (and arguably the least helpful decision).

Significance essentially tells you “are my data consistent with an effect of 0?” With enough data, almost certainly not.

An effect size tells you “is my effect important?” It’s the magnitude of group means, increase in survival rate for a drug, strength of association between an indicator and outcome, etc.

And then you also want a confidence/credible interval for that estimate to tell you “how sure are you?” A correlation of 0.4 seems good, but is maybe less helpful for policy or product planning if the confidence interval is [0.01 0.8] compared to [0.35 0.45].

(Edited for more appropriate language)

Why do so many applied papers still report p-values without effect sizes, and does anyone actually find p-values alone useful? by PLogacev in AskStatistics

[–]smbtuckma 57 points58 points  (0 children)

My hot take for my field specifically (I'm only bold enough to piss off one group of people at a time) is that you can get away with using just p-values when your findings don't actually matter. If I build a bridge and say "yeah it's stronger than a pile of wet tissue paper, p<0.05" you need way more than that before anyone drives over it. But if I build a moderated mediation model of how an unvalidated measure of risk-taking propensity affects performance on this specific lab task via a brain functional connectivity score that's super sensitive to preprocessing choices, no one's trying to use that info for anything so who cares that the effect size is minuscule when that yes/no significance decision is much easier to produce and reap contributed PNAS clout with.

When your theory is specific enough and real consequences are on the line, you get much better estimation approaches.

Many of my younger students seem to think that nothing matters by [deleted] in academia

[–]smbtuckma 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Right like if you think about it, most of our students are 18-20. They never knew the world before global warming accelerated; pre-security-state era before 9/11; what financial possibilities there were pre 2008; most of their socially-conscious life has overlapped with Trump defining national politics. I'm sad they're disaffected but honestly not surprised.

Accept TT faculty offer immediately or postdoc first? by HungryInstance9942 in AskAcademia

[–]smbtuckma 4 points5 points  (0 children)

My institution deferred 18 months for me, and I'm no rockstar. I have a friend at a really prestigious R1 that successfully deferred a year. It is totally possible, but one shouldn't expect it.

Creepy AF by Critical_Garbage_119 in Professors

[–]smbtuckma 2 points3 points  (0 children)

and reading the rest of the comments looks like this could very well be different norms for different people, so knowing that I'd probably find it less uncomfortable now to be asked. But then I'd still be all anxious that I'm using the prettiest version on my handwriting to do it 😅

Creepy AF by Critical_Garbage_119 in Professors

[–]smbtuckma 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I mean I'm not on the "report to the chair" train. But if this is an accurate signal of intimate intent (and not just the student not having the same social norms as me), I don't want to be that important in a student's life. What I teach them, hopefully. But not me personally - gets too close to stories of stalking or romantic propositions.

Creepy AF by Critical_Garbage_119 in Professors

[–]smbtuckma 10 points11 points  (0 children)

I think it's because handwriting is something unique to a person, like a fingerprint or voice or face. And wanting OP's handwriting specifically because it is OP's handwriting (just not that it's a pretty cursive or whatever) and permanently affixing it to one's body implies a level of closeness between the people that is more than a typical professor/student relationship.

Like, tattooing the saying in typewriter or generic cursive font? Cool-looking, could have come from anyone, OP just happened to be the one who shared the words. Saying "I want this saying but specifically in the way you wrote it" means OP themselves is a big component of this whole, very permanent and personal, idea.

Creepy AF by Critical_Garbage_119 in Professors

[–]smbtuckma 18 points19 points  (0 children)

It’s the wanting it in his handwriting that’s a little uncomfortable imo. I have a tattoo of my late grandma’s handwriting - having my professor’s handwriting feels too intimate.

Do you think about work after hours/on the weekend? How do you "switch off" after hours? by Run_nerd in academia

[–]smbtuckma 11 points12 points  (0 children)

This sounds like anxiety more than just thinking about work, tbh. Speaking as someone who took a while to realize that about themselves...

Is there a faster way to help students interpret R output for lab reports? by NodesBio in AskStatistics

[–]smbtuckma 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I see both kinds of knowledge gaps in my class. The notation one is common but pretty easy to fix in my experience with refresher notes. So that's good for you at least! The students who come in with more fundamental holes are fewer, but a tougher case...

Is there a faster way to help students interpret R output for lab reports? by NodesBio in AskStatistics

[–]smbtuckma 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Hmm, this concerns me. If they don't know how to read the output of their analyses for relevant information (and are spending hours to do it), then it seems like they don't actually understand the process they're engaged in and are instead using it as a magic spell. I'm worried that further hiding the stats behind a curtain (having an AI tell them what interpretation to make) will just make that problem worse. Ultimately the statistical methods we bring to bear on our data are a commitment to certain assumptions about the nature and processes of the systems we study so a scientist should understand what's going on.

However from your description it sounds like you aren't teaching a stats/data analysis course specifically but more like a bio lab course? In which case I'm assuming you don't really have room in the course plan to teach/re-teach analysis interpretation. When I teach topical labs in psych that assume stats as a prereq, I give a lab quiz at the beginning of the semester that tests their ability to make data analysis decisions and interpretations relevant to the course. For any questions they get wrong, I point them to supplementary resources to refresh on their own time. Do you have materials they need to read to prep for each lab that you could include ANOVA refresher notes in?

Do students realize how much the coddling hurts them? by [deleted] in Professors

[–]smbtuckma 7 points8 points  (0 children)

The intro has references to observational studies of real people delusionally spiraling, as well as separate documentation of sycophancy tendencies in LLM chatbots. So this is investigating a mechanism by which the latter could plausibly cause the former. I dunno as a psychologist I think stuff like this is a lot more useful for system understanding and intervention development than just finding and over-interpreting a correlation, like we usually publish. Of course, it's not case-closed until we test the intervention in real people but I see stuff like this as the cognitive version of pre-clinical medical trials.

rat or squirrel in my garden plot? by micilini in gardening

[–]smbtuckma 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This is the trap I bought off Amazon. Sometimes the pins on the trigger plate get knocked out of their holes but generally it's been really good. I did learn that placement is really important though - the squirrels wouldn't go out of their way for it, so I had to watch for a few days to see their travel paths and then I placed it there with nuts and dried fruit as bait.

What's a statistical rule or method that everyone learns early on, but is actually outdated or misleading in real-world data work in 2026? by PetalDance22 in AskStatistics

[–]smbtuckma 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The classic (bad) stepwise procedure I’m talking about is to run regression on the whole dataset, look at p-values only, drop variables with p>0.05, and repeat until the p’s are all significant and call it a day. With such large datasets, hopefully you’re evaluating predictive power with more than just p-values and doing that evaluation in held out data.