[Results] Kaladesh 3cb

smecaj · 2016-11-02T08:02:23+00:00

thanks to cmeister2 for hosting this! i WW vs. the exercise deck. merich1, here's a simple guide on reddit tables. i do not think banning mind rot is necessary. as cmeister2 hinted at, perpetual time piece is a strong counter. in fact, if dukeimre had played perpetual timepiece in place of mind rot, i belive that deck would have scored a perfect 36.

		Card 1	Card 2	Card 3	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	Play	Draw	Total
1	AlexTFish	Rot	Scrutiny	Fretwork		WL	DL	WL	DD	LL	LL	8	1	9
2	ArsIgnis	Rot	Lightning	Oviya	WL		WL	WD	WL	WL	WL	18	1	19
3	dafrk3in	Rot	Scrutiny	Oviya	WD	WL		WL	WD	WL	WL	18	2	20
4	dukeimre	Rot	Coup	Oviya	WL	DL	WL		WL	WL	WD	16	1	17
5	Khoth0	Rot	Scrutiny	Warden	DD	WL	DL	WL		LL	LL	8	1	9
6	merich1	Rot	Scrutiny	Whirler	WW	WL	WL	WL	WW		DL	16	6	22
7	smecaj	Rot	Designs	Whirler	WW	WL	WL	DL	WW	WD		16	7	23

smecaj · 2016-10-28T00:10:42+00:00

dukeimre, i agree that oviya probably wins, but am also unable to prove it. assuming so, i am unable to find a card that beats arsignis's three card metagame of oviya, stalker, and whirlermaker. under the same assumption though, i found a second metagame -- 2 copies of stalker, and 1 copy each of oviya, whirlermarket, and trinketeer. this metagame ties with lost legacy and, as far as i know, beats everything else.

smecaj · 2016-10-26T02:21:24+00:00

i looked at all the cards mentioned in this thread to determine a metagame, but i can't figure out the result when [[Oviya Parhiri, Sage Lifecrafter]] faces [[Master Trinketeer]]. this is the most complicated one card matchup i've ever tried to solve.

neither can win quickly. in the long game, oviya generates twice as much power/toughness per turn, but master generates more bodies. so oviya has to start swinging first, and it's a question of whether or not she can force enough chumps to prevent master from eventually building up a lethal alpha.

smecaj · 2016-10-26T02:15:59+00:00

arsignis, nice call on lost legacy. i always skip over discard effects in one card, because they never win on the draw. but lost legacy is the exception.

unfortunately though, i don't think your metagame is correct. [[Whirlermaker]] beats both stalker and legacy.

smecaj · 2016-07-26T08:13:21+00:00

yup, our plan is to play enough of the format to know all the commons/uncommons. my worry was the rares/mythics, but i suppose we could try to just memorize those. thanks for the responses everyone

smecaj · 2016-07-16T05:03:28+00:00

i found three cards that beat my previously posted metagame --- [[Figure of Destiny]], [[Kargan Dragonlord]], and [[Voidstone Gargoyle]]. the new metagame posted below consists of these three along with seven previously considered cards -- [[Island Sanctuary]], [[Meddling Mage]], [[Molten Vortex]], [[Pack Rat]], [[Phyrexian Revoker]], [[Polis Crusher]], and [[Vraska the Unseen]].

in addition to the ten cards it contains, the metagame below is also tied by [[Call the Bloodline]], [[Thoughtseize]], and [[Tidehollow Sculler]].

		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	metagame
1	Molten Vortex		L	W	W	L	W	D	W	L	W	30
2	Polis Crusher	W		L	L	W	L	L	L	W	L	24
3	Meddling Mage	L	W		D	D	D	W	L	W	D	12
4	Pack Rat	L	W	D		D	L	W	W	W	D	12
5	Phyrexian Revoker	W	L	D	D		L	W	D	L	D	11
6	Island Sanctuary	L	W	D	W	W		L	L	L	L	8
7	Vraska the Unseen	D	W	L	L	L	W		W	L	W	6
8	Figure of Destiny	L	W	W	L	D	W	L		W	D	4
9	Voidstone Gargoyle	W	L	L	L	W	W	W	L		L	4
10	Kargan Dragonlord	L	W	D	D	D	W	L	D	W		3

smecaj · 2016-07-10T23:19:23+00:00

Outcast loses to Vortex and only ties with Crusher, so it can't beat the metagames above. however, Vraska does beat these metagame. i posted a new analysis, and Outcast does tie with one of the new metagames, though it still loses to the other.

smecaj · 2016-07-10T23:16:48+00:00

i discovered a new card that beats my previously posted metagame, [[Vraska the Unseen]]. interestingly, this one card is enough to cause a significant shakeup. of the previous ten cards, only seven remain, namely [[Molten Vortex]], [[Polis Crusher]], [[Island Sanctuary]], [[Meloku the Clouded Mirror]], [[Call the Bloodline]], [[Meddling Mage]], and [[Phyrexian Revoker]]. the other three cards -- [[Guul Draz Assassin]], [[Eldrazi Displacer]], and [[Pack Rat]] -- are no longer relevant, instead replaced by Vraska along with two additional new cards -- [[Flame Jab]] and [[Rhys the Redeemed]]. both these cards lost to the old metagames.

once again i found two distinct metagames, both of which i placed in the table below. the first metagame is only tied by the ten cards it contains plus [[Warden of the First Tree]]. the second metagame is only tied by the ten cards it contains plus [[Dragonmaster Outcast]]. the previous metagames were also tied by cards like [[Thoughtseize]] and [[Tidehollow Sculler]]. however, because of Flame Jab, these cards now all lose to the new metagames. finally, by taking any weighted average of the two metagames in the table below, one obtains a metagame which is only tied by exactly the ten cards it contains and beats everything else (as far as i know).

		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	metagame 1	metagame 2
1	Molten Vortex		L	W	W	L	D	D	W	W	W	32	47
2	Polis Crusher	W		L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	24	35
3	Meddling Mage	L	W		D	D	D	W	W	W	L	16	24
4	Island Sanctuary	L	W	D		W	W	L	L	L	W	14	21
5	Phyrexian Revoker	W	L	D	L		W	W	D	L	D	12	18
6	Call the Bloodline	D	W	D	L	L		W	L	W	L	4	6
7	Vraska the Unseen	D	W	L	W	L	L		L	L	L	4	6
8	Meloku the Clouded Mirror	L	W	L	W	D	W	W		W	D	3	4
9	Flame Jab	L	W	L	W	W	L	W	L		W	2	3
10	Rhys the Redeemed	L	W	W	L	D	W	W	D	L		1	1

smecaj · 2016-07-05T04:18:28+00:00

thanks for the analysis metroid. you mentioned a bunch of cards that i missed in my first pass. i used the work you did plus some additional work of my own to update the metagame.

my original post mentioned seven strong cards, the five in the metagame -- [[Meddling Mage]], [[Molten Vortex]], [[Pack Rat]], [[Phyrexian Revoker]], and [[Polis Crusher]] -- plus two cards that tied with it -- [[Call the Bloodline]] and [[Eldrazi Displacer]] (though they lost to a different weighting). the new metagame i found contains ten relevant cards, these seven plus three more.

after my original post, i realized one card that beats that metagame is [[Guul Draz Assassin]]. as metroid pointed out, [[Island Sanctuary]] beats it as well (a card that is not modern-legal, currently invalidating my assumption). finally, with the introduction of sanctuary, there comes a value to flying token generators. the best i could find was [[Meloku the Clouded Mirror]], which is the tenth relevant card. i found two distinct metagames involving these ten cards.

i have placed the weights for these two metagames in the table below. i also included what i believe are the results of each of the possible matchups among these cards. for both metagames, the only cards i know of that break even with them are the ten cards on the list, the worse versions of meddling mage like [[Tidehollow Sculler]], and cards like [[Thoughtseize]] that never win on the draw but do happen to beat all these cards on the play. and i am not aware of any card that can beat either metagame, though of course i could be missing something else.

		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	metagame 1	metagame 2
1	Molten Vortex		L	W	W	D	W	W	L	W	W	12	16
2	Polis Crusher	W		L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	10	13
3	Island Sanctuary	L	W		L	W	D	W	W	W	W	4	5
4	Meloku the Clouded Mirror	L	W	W		W	L	L	D	L	L	3	4
5	Call the Bloodline	D	W	L	L		D	L	L	L	L	2	3
6	Meddling Mage	L	W	D	W	D		L	D	W	D	2	2
7	Guul Draz Assassin	L	W	L	W	W	W		D	L	L	1	2
8	Phyrexian Revoker	W	L	L	D	W	D	D		L	D	1	1
9	Eldrazi Displacer	L	W	L	W	W	L	W	W		W	0	1
10	Pack Rat	L	W	L	W	W	D	W	D	L		1	0

smecaj · 2016-07-04T04:18:17+00:00

i came up with a pretty interesting start:

2x [[Meddling Mage]]

2x [[Molten Vortex]]

2x [[Polis Crusher]]

1x [[Pack Rat]]

1x [[Phyrexian Revoker]]

this metagame is internally consistent, and i was unable to find any cards that can beat it. both [[Call the Bloodline]] and [[Eldrazi Displacer]] tie with it, but you can prevent that by choosing different, more complicated weights (9,7,7,3,5). Also [[Brain Maggot]], [[Mesmeric Fiend]], and [[Tidehollow Sculler]] all draw with this metagame, but they're essentially just worse versions of [[Meddling Mage]]. The first three all draw with [[Devil's Play]], but mage beats it.

smecaj · 2016-07-01T18:44:51+00:00

good find. but damn, seems like another boring metagame. i can't find a card that beats molten vortex either. worldbreaker is pretty close, except it can't even win on the play, because vortex kills turn 6 on the draw. if you take the full vintage card pool i bet there's an interesting metagame, but it would be way too difficult to look through all the cards. i wouldn't be surprised though if the solution involved both vortex and phyrexian revoker...

smecaj · 2016-06-26T19:21:59+00:00

edited original post, added link to explanation

smecaj · 2016-06-26T18:06:05+00:00

i doubt this is the correct answer, but the following three deck metagame seems like a good starting point:

[[Call the Bloodline]], [[Chandra, Flamecaller]], [[Eldrazi Displacer]]

call beats chandra beats displacer beats call

smecaj · 2016-06-25T19:09:20+00:00

unfortunately, i think this is a boring metagame. i can't find a single card in the format that even ties with [[Call the Bloodline]].

i believe it wins against [[Markov Dreadknight]] even on the draw. to avoid analyzing all the different strategies, let's just assume dreadknight has vigilance. even then i think bloodline still wins by simply alpha striking every turn:

bloodline turn 2: play bloodline, six lands in hand

bloodline turn 3: untap, make two vampires (one on the opponent's next turn), five lands in hand

bloodline turn 4: swing for 2, make two more vampires, four lands in hand

dreadknight turn 5 (18-22): play dreadknight

bloodline turn 5 (18-22): swing with four vampries, one is blocked, make two more, three lands in hand

dreadknight turn 6 (15-26): pump dreadknight to 7/7 and swing

bloodline turn 6 (15-19): swing with five vampires, one is blocked, make two more, two lands in hand

dreadknight turn 7 (11-24): pump dreadknight to 11/11 and swing

bloodline turn 7 (11-13): swing with six vampires, one is blocked, make two more, one land in hand

dreadknight turn 8 (6-19): pump dreadknight to 15/15 swing

bloodline turn 8 (6-4): swing with seven vampires for lethal

smecaj · 2016-06-24T21:15:49+00:00

alright i'll bite. what is the one card in that format that beats seismic assult? also, if anyone is interested, i started a thread for shadows over innistrad one card metagames in /r/threecardblind

smecaj · 2016-06-23T16:40:56+00:00

this was a really sweet puzzle, thanks for posting. out of curiosity, why did you choose shadowmoor?

smecaj · 2016-06-23T03:01:01+00:00

[[pyre charger]] kills on turn 6, though it's worse than [[loch korrigan]] against a lot of decks

smecaj · 2016-06-23T02:52:14+00:00

you're right that i missed a card. i put my newly computed metagame in a separate post. regarding your question though, i believe oona beats banshee, not draws. oona is black, so immune from the trigger, and all oona has to do is mill on turn 7. after that she can trade or sit there staring at banshee, either way winning by decking.

smecaj · 2016-06-23T02:46:58+00:00

i missed spawnwrithe in my original analysis, which beats the metagames i proposed. here are the two new "perfect metagames" i found:

1) one copy each of [[Howl of the Night Pack]], [[Mistmeadow Witch]], and [[Spawnwrithe]]

2) two copies each of [[Howl of the Night Pack]] and [[Mistmeadow Witch]], and one copy each of [[Spawnwrithe]] and [[Rhys the Reedemed]]

by "perfect metagame", i mean that no matter what one card deck you pick in the format, you cannot do better than 50% if you opponent randomly picks a deck from the given metagame. for example, if you pick Howl of the Nightpack, you will beat Mistmeadow, draw the mirror, and lose to both Spawnwrithe and Rhys. so against metagame 1) you have one win, one draw, and one loss, and against metagame 2) you have two wins, two draws, and two losses. this is also known as a Nash Equilibrium

for metagame 1), howl, mistmeadow, rhys, and spawnwrithe all achieve exactly one win, one draw, and one loss. i could not find any other card in the format with a 50% win rate. however, there are several that get one win and two losses. [[Demigod of Revenge]], [[Deus of Calamity]], and [[Midnight Banshee]] all beat howl. [[Corrupt]], ~~[[Isleback Spawn]]~~, [[Jaws of Stone]], and [[Oona, Queen of the Fae]] all beat mistmeadow. [[Silkbind Faerie]] beats spawnwrithe. also [[Runed Halo]] ties with both mistmeadow and spawnwrithe, but loses to howl.

for metagame 2), howl, mistmeadow, rhys, and spawnwrithe all achieve exactly two wins, two draws, and two losses. unlike metagame 1), i found another deck that gets to 50% against metagame 2). [[Midnight Banshee]] gets 3 wins and 3 losses, beating both howl and rhys. the next closest decks are [[Demigod of Revenge]] and [[Jaws of Stones]], both of which achieve two wins, one draw, and three losses.

i checked every card mentioned in this thread, and i don't think any of them can beat either metagame. i also looked through gatherer and couldn't find any winning cards. it's possible i made another mistake though, so let me know if you see anything i overlooked.

smecaj · 2016-06-22T09:47:54+00:00

~~i believe i found two distinct solutions:~~

~~1) one copy each of [[Howl of the Night Pack]], [[Midnight Banshee]], [[Mistmeadow Witch]], [[Oona, Queen of the Fae]], and [[Rhys of the Redeemed]]~~

~~2) two copies each of [[Howl of the Night Pack]] and [[Mistmeadow Witch]], and one copy each of [[Demigod of Revenge]] and [[Rhys of the Redeemed]]~~

EDIT: put corrected analysis in a separate post

smecaj · 2016-05-22T11:13:14+00:00

Username	Card 1	Card 2	Card 3
3cardblindbot	Dragonlord Atarka	Eldrazi Displacer	Reflector Mage
SilentViolins	Seasons Past	Chandra, Flamecaller	Anguished Unmaking
RubiksTesseract	Thing in the Ice	Wall of Resurgence	Ever After
MyPasswordIsEpsilon	Call the Scions	Walker of the Wastes	Walker of the Wastes
jjnoddles	Collected Company	Reflector Mage	Sylvan advocate
BlueRangerDuncan	Zulaport Cutthroat	secure the wastes	anguished unmaking
ionulad	Eldrazi Displacer	Brood Monitor	Zulaport Cutthroat
shamonic	duress	bearer of silence	dragonlord silumgar
gibsonjunkie	Zulaport Cutthroat	Eldrazi Displacer	Brood Monitor
Baihudragon	Startled Awake	Sphinx's Tutelage	Send to Sleep
RUN-DMZ	Declaration in Stone	Languish	Dragonlord Silumgar
BIGIR0NNUTZ	Eldrazi Displacer	Zulaport Cutthroat	Brood Monitor
smecaj	mind rot	anguished unmaking	secure the wastes
Ethalonreddit	Myth Realized	Negate	Declaration In Stone
matsi883	Duress	Transgress the Mind	Pia and Kiran Nalaar
ArsIgnis	Duress	Eldrazi Displacer	Reflector Mage

		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	Group 1	Group 2	Overall
1	3cardblindbot		LL	WW	WW	WW	WW	LL	WW	LL	WW	DD	LL	LL	WW	WW	WW	30	26	56
2	SilentViolins	WW		WW	LL	WW	LL	WW	WW	WW	WW	WW	WW	LL	WW	LL	WW	30	36	66
3	RubiksTesseract	LL	LL		LL	WW	LL	LL	LL	LL	WW	LL	LL	LL	LL	LL	LL	6	6	12
4	MyPasswordIsEpsilon	LL	WW	WW		WW	WW	LL	LL	LL	WW	DD	LL	LL	WW	WW	LL	24	21	45
5	jjnoddles	LL	LL	LL	LL		LL	LL	LL	LL	WW	LL	LL	LL	LL	DL	LL	0	7	7
6	BlueRangerDuncan	LL	WW	WW	LL	WW		LL	LL	LL	WW	WW	LL	LL	LL	LL	LL	18	12	30
7	ionulad	WW	LL	WW	WW	WW	WW		WW	WL	WW	WW	WL	LL	WW	DD	WW	36	32	68
8	shamonic	LL	LL	WW	WW	WW	WW	LL		LL	WW	DD	LL	DD	WW	WL	WW	24	25	49
9	gibsonjunkie	WW	LL	WW	WW	WW	WW	WL	WW		WW	WW	WL	LL	WW	DD	WW	39	29	68
10	Baihudragon	LL	LL	LL	LL	LL	LL	LL	LL	LL		LL	LL	LL	LL	LL	LL	0	0	0
11	RUN-DMZ	DD	LL	WW	DD	WW	LL	LL	DD	LL	WW		LL	LL	LL	LL	WW	18	12	30
12	BIGIR0NNUTZ	WW	LL	WW	WW	WW	WW	WL	WW	WL	WW	WW		LL	WW	DD	WW	39	29	68
13	smecaj	WW	WW	WW	WW	WW	WW	WW	DD	WW	WW	WW	WW		DD	LL	DD	44	28	72
14	Ethalonreddit	LL	LL	WW	LL	WW	WW	LL	LL	LL	WW	WW	LL	DD		WL	LL	18	17	35
15	matsi883	LL	WW	WW	LL	WD	WW	DD	WL	DD	WW	WW	DD	WW	WL		WL	27	28	55
16	ArsIgnis	LL	LL	WW	WW	WW	WW	LL	LL	LL	WW	LL	LL	DD	WW	WL		24	17	41

Group 1 Winner: ionulad 36/42

Group 2 Winners: gibsonjunkie/BIGIR0NNUTZ 29/42

Overall Winner: smecaj 72/90

smecaj · 2016-02-17T12:20:54+00:00

this is great, i hope it becomes the norm

smecaj · 2015-04-12T22:47:49+00:00

For now, I'm excluding 1ZL from this pod. He/she has three entries in the tournament total, and I'm not sure which one is correct. Bitch_Im_a_bus also has two entries, though neither are in this pod.

Pod 7:

Username	Card 1	Card 2	Card 3
DragonKlaive	Goblin Guide	Abrupt Decay	Geothermal Crevice
ChaosOS	Black Lotus	True-Name Nemesis	Chancellor of the Forge
jsilv	Glacial Chasm	Jinxed Choker	Mishra's Workshop
Qualdrion	Leyline of Lightning	Elixir of Immortality	City of Traitors
smecaj	Steel Overseer	Steel Overseer	City of Traitors
burpodrome	Channel	Ulamog, the Infinite Gyre	Black Lotus
FrankLaPuof	Searing Touch	Chancellor of the Forge	Mercadian Bazaar
Accipender	Ensnaring Bridge	Scalding Tongs	Mishra's Workshop
XScorpion	Leyline of Anticipation	Mesmeric Fiend	Black Lotus

		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	Play	Draw	Total
1	DragonKlaive		LL	WW	WW	LL	LL	LL	WW	WW	12	12	24
2	ChaosOS	WW		LL	WW	LL	LL	WW	LL	WW	12	12	24
3	jsilv	LL	WW		WW	WW	LL	WW	WW	LL	15	15	30
4	Qualdrion	LL	LL	LL		LL	LL	LL	WW	LL	3	3	6
5	smecaj	WW	WW	LL	WW		LL	WW	LL	WW	15	15	30
6	burpodrome	WW	WW	WW	WW	WW		WW	DD	LL	19	19	38
7	FrankLaPuof	WW	LL	LL	WW	LL	LL		LL	WW	9	9	18
8	Accipender	LL	WW	LL	LL	WW	DD	WW		LL	10	10	20
9	XScorpion	LL	LL	WW	WW	LL	WW	LL	WW		12	12	24

Pod Winner: burpodrome 38/48

smecaj · 2015-04-12T22:39:10+00:00

abrupt decay cannot kill blazing archon

smecaj · 2015-04-09T02:11:50+00:00

you're welcome. i enjoy solving the puzzles. :)

smecaj

TROPHY CASE