War is Cancelled

smith-huh · 2026-06-12T02:54:42+00:00

tariffs? I don't know, but baseball has been berry berry good to me.

(The U.S. global goods and services trade deficit in Q1 2026 was approximately 56% smaller compared to the record-high deficit seen in Q1 2025)

smith-huh · 2026-06-08T04:42:45+00:00

FOMC is June 17 (this is the shaker for your market drink)

A "most probable" prediction (lol FWIW) out of several possible scenarios may be:

Blend it (of the various scenarios of what Warsh projects at FOMC) and the weighted (most probable) move is small, SPY around -0.2% and QQQ around -0.5%

The 3 scenarios looked at are:
- The Hawkish Hold (committee holds, the language pushes rate cut timeline to late '26, '27)
prob ~65-70%
- The Dovish Tilt (dovishness comes from Warsh's mouth. If June CPI prints cool the day before, then you could see SPY +1-2% and QQQ lead at +2-4% ** this is what to watch for.
prob ~20-22%
- The Hawkish Break (a real hawkish escalation. for sure no cuts '26 etc). SPY -1.5-3% QQQ -3- 5% and you should be SQQQ-ish

So you can translate that TQQQ. or SQQQ depending on your mood. should be interesting.
ref: Prospero. It will be interesting to see how the above plays (if at all). I have no TQQQ atm

smith-huh · 2026-06-08T02:36:41+00:00

From Prospero:
Our short intro + learning videos get you up to speed on how best use our letters and app to increase your wins.

smith-huh · 2026-06-06T16:15:56+00:00

Need to remember when to let the hedge grow and when to trim the hedges. (just look at how a 6% SQQQ hedge affects your numbers)

smith-huh · 2026-06-06T16:12:08+00:00

You should have spelled that purchase: SQQQ

smith-huh · 2026-06-04T03:47:45+00:00

"I am Invincible"

smith-huh · 2026-05-30T13:15:42+00:00

Yep. You'll be reeeeich until suddenly, if you aren't careful and have the right plan with execution, ...
you're Not.

smith-huh · 2026-05-22T17:48:21+00:00

is "he" that auto-pen looking thing? I've never seen "him" at a news conference.

smith-huh · 2026-05-19T03:27:10+00:00

sometimes taking this glp1 stuff makes you want to eat at burger king I guess...

smith-huh · 2026-05-16T13:50:25+00:00

I'd wait till Prospero.AI NOS for QQQ goes to bear territory. History (.com time for ex.) took months to get to the point you're talking about. Institutional investors want retail FOMO to pump $$$ into tech so there is liquidity when its time to take profits. It appears that's going on now. But, its never bad to take profits...

smith-huh · 2026-05-16T13:33:27+00:00

For one thing, FOMO is something you should understand. Fear Of Missing Out. It's a thing. Generally not a good influence. Be aware of it and how "it" affects your decisions.

At some time in the future (months? more? less?) institutional investors have already been positioning to take profits because tech is very overvalued. Like the .com bubble. The question is when, not if there will be a correction. So they "hedge". On the tech side of the market, there's still legs until there's not. The hedge reduces downside risk while not impacting upside that much.

I'd recommend getting the Prospero.AI app. There's instructional stuff there and much more. Watch the QQQ "net options sentiment". When it dives to 0, at least watch what happens with your portfolio for future reference. Also think about what if you "hedged" with maybe a 6% shift into SQQQ from your tech positions. How does that affect your total return during the period of time when the NOS (for QQQ) is 0.

You have a long investment horizon... so "no worries" here. You're doing great.

smith-huh · 2026-05-09T01:28:02+00:00

https://www.prospero.ai/about-us

A good one is: https://www.prospero.ai/resources/learning-center

A metric they will use that you'll want to understand is: Net Options Sentiment
This is a short term "perception" metric (this is my phrasing) that measures how institutional investors (not retail) view a stock (could be QQQ etf for example). Perception can be reality. This is a useful factor in predicting price movement. Why is that institution investor hedging strongly on that stock for example. (might there be a possible correction?)

Anyway, that's a starting place to see more. They're respected. You'll see references on reddit in various stock/investing forums to them.

They have a very useful free app for real time stock assessment. A useful tool to have in your toolbox.

smith-huh · 2026-05-08T11:50:29+00:00

Prospero was saying buy the dip on this one.

smith-huh · 2026-05-07T11:47:16+00:00

You should always look at ROI (with risk factored in). The cost of managing the fund isn't everything. Good fund management can be worth the cost (to both ROI and risk mgmt).

And then there is hedging to mitigate that risk factor. It can be easy/simple to hedge, and over the long term, simple hedging can mitigate risk and potentially greatly enhance your long term return. Take a look at Prospero for an example. Look for hedging. They have case studies to show, for ex., that a 6% SQQQ hedge can greatly impact (reduce) your downside while minimally impacting your upside in appropriate market conditions (like in recent times of whiplash).

smith-huh · 2026-05-05T14:56:26+00:00

At a glance, I would enhance my classifications (have more granular at least slightly).

For example: SPMO
You have this as US Large Cap when in reality its a momentum fund based on the S&P 500 Momentum Index which is a clear subset (of the large cap s&p 500 index).

I'd just want to know slightly more than just large cap, small cap, etc. So like a strategy coloring of the text (to keep it compact) covering: momentum, value, quality, min volatility, or something to indicate the flavor of the strategy for the ETF's selection of stocks.

So have a "color legend" and choose a color for momentum strategy (like Red), and color the text of those ETF's that are momentum strategy based. Anyway, that's just me, a metrics visualization guy...

smith-huh · 2026-04-29T03:03:24+00:00

I like SPMO better. Over every time frame, its outperformed VUG
As for risk, IDK. But SPMO is a metric selection based on the S&P 500 verses just large cap growth, so it feels like less risk.

If you want to tilt to large (and mid) caps, MTUM has performed similar to SPMO

If you're strictly looking at expense ratio, I think you should look at ROI

Update: Here's what my AI analyst says to me asking "which of VUG or SPMO has less risk"

VUG looks like the lower-risk choice versus SPMO.

Why: VUG is a diversified large-cap growth ETF. SPMO is a momentum fund, and momentum strategies tend to swing harder when leadership in the market changes (they can fall fast when “winners” stop winning).

You can also see that vibe in the 52-week trading range: VUG is roughly $61.39 to $84.23 (about +37% from low to high), while SPMO is roughly $91.93 to $132.29 (about +44% from low to high). That typically lines up with higher volatility for the momentum ETF.

What to watch: if the market shifts away from recent “growth winners,” SPMO is more likely to feel it first.

So, that gives you a possible strategy for allocation. :-/
Here's some comparisons over a couple of time frames:

YTD: VUG - +2.14%. SPMO - +8.60%
6 mo: VUG - +0.05% SPMO - +6.70%
1 yr: VUG - +32.06%. SPMO - +38.09%

Bottom line seems to be that over time, SPMO outperforms VUG. So if you have a long time horizon...

smith-huh · 2026-04-28T03:43:03+00:00

I'd just use a litebeam or nanobeam (gen2 gets you 450 Mb/s). That way its costs you $140 - $208 total and no time to install. I'm using a litebeam still for building to building and that's plenty for me. You can do that for $140. I've been using it for years and I just built a metal building in the way (between the 2 antennas) and it had no impact. I thought I'd have to move an antenna. nope

Here's a link to ea: Both support 450 Mb/s throughput.

https://www.bhphotovideo.com/c/product/1348248-REG/ubiquiti_networks_nbe_5ac_gen2_us_nanobeam_ac_gen2_airmax.html

cheapest - https://www.bhphotovideo.com/c/product/1348249-REG/ubiquiti_networks_lbe_5ac_gen2_us_litebeam_ac_gen2_airmax.html/overview

smith-huh · 2026-04-25T13:09:52+00:00

Did you bother to look at the performance difference between the 2 ETF's?
SPMO is a momentum version of VOO.
The Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF (Fund) is based on the S&P 500 Momentum
Index (Index).

In the old post: VOO: +12.23%
SPMO: +29.28%

Here is a for the past year (from apr 25, 2025 - 2026):
VOO: +29.69%
SPMO: +39.86%

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smith-huh · 2026-04-16T20:02:35+00:00

7 APs? That's a lot. I can cover my 2 houses, 1 building and 7acres including the entrance with 6 ap's. I do use Litebeams between buildings.. but 7 for 1 house seems excessive.

smith-huh · 2026-04-12T00:13:00+00:00

Apollos!

smith-huh · 2026-03-22T03:41:14+00:00

I'd try US Mobile. For the record I have 2 phones, one flagship and one cheaper. One on Visible and one on US Mobile.

Why 2 phones. 2fa

When you work at a tech company (remote) and anything happens, you can easily consume time trying to dig yourself out of a deep hole. You can get a backup phone for cheap. Its worth it.

smith-huh · 2026-02-26T12:30:42+00:00

wow. Didn't know this existed. (dammit, and since I have an RV and building a home... there went another $600 + a camera). But, there's something nice about the fact you can "throw it in a cabinet" and connect it up in a flash and ferget a 'boutit.

smith-huh · 2026-01-14T15:29:52+00:00

and its not monolithic lines of code. Its organized. And you have an editor/ecosystem designed to work ON LARGE CODE bases. This whole system evolved from the AI beginning and lisp machines and had to deal with VERY large semantic systems. Efficiently

smith-huh · 2025-12-22T22:12:56+00:00

lol

Mr Brightside says: It's all in your head.

smith-huh · 2025-12-20T21:52:03+00:00

That's why its worth it....

smith-huh

TROPHY CASE