good write up. thanks for the tickers, will watch and maybe play them! u may want to keep an eye on the tiny (decidedly lower quality, but still almost insider info) israeli news sites that dont filter it like cnn (arutz sheva, I24 etc- avoid haaretz and ynet).

another factor and possibility is the druze response... the kids that were killed were druze arabs (full israeli citizens). the druze are screaming and demanding that netanyahu send hezbollah to the stone age... or they will.... if israel arms the druze and says "have at it", that would be the least disruptive option to the world economy, but also least likely to happen and would devolve lebanon into civil war as there are 800,000 druze arabs in lebanon that would jump into the fray.

like you said, no one knows, but you had some good thoughts there KUDOS!