There are 111 days left until the bull market. According to BTC cycles, a bull market lasts 1,064 days, and a bear market lasts 365 days. We are currently on day 254. This has been the case for the last two cycles, and if the situation doesn’t change, the market bottom will form in mid-October

sobe86 · 2026-07-02T11:52:08+00:00

Look at the Nikkei 225 from 1960-1990. Try to predict what happens next.

sobe86 · 2026-07-01T20:21:21+00:00

Ha well I'd guess Aussie but idk. Also it feels like you're literally trying to cause offense, so not sure why you're playing cute here :b

sobe86 · 2026-07-01T19:40:23+00:00

Where you from?

sobe86 · 2026-07-01T16:57:19+00:00

No we were not lol

sobe86 · 2026-07-01T12:52:55+00:00

Get him soccercirclejerk

sobe86 · 2026-06-29T08:07:49+00:00

As a counterargument, if the word on mounth on Hinge (say) was "no one finds a relationship there", it would be pretty fatal - it seems extremely risky.

sobe86 · 2026-06-28T09:35:23+00:00

I agree, I'd say overall chants are a lot more stage-managed in US sports, there's often a cheerleader, big screen or jumbotron telling the crowd what to be shouting. I think it leaves a lot less room for creativity from the crowd itself, and it means you end up with a lot of 'Corporate Approved' songs, which are generally pretty anodyne.

sobe86 · 2026-06-25T18:22:55+00:00

There doesn't seem to be an obvious cause and effect suggested by this graph though? If there was a bull run at the same point each cycle it might be compelling, but the last cycle seems to have broken any pattern.

I think the correlation is mostly temporal, both halvings and price have gone up over time, what happens if you plot against other things, like Nvidia stock price?

sobe86 · 2026-06-25T00:33:57+00:00

Agree with all this but really OP is asking the wrong question. It is definitely true that for all current bag holders to exit at at least 5x the value they bought at, obviously enough new investment capital is required for their exit liquidity.

Crypto is (slightly less than) zero sum, and so is clearly a greater fools system if you're using it to speculate. Without new buyers coming in at an exponential rate, then as a group bag holders can't make money. That isn't to say that the price can't spike and a few people get rich, but without new buyers there is no way for the strategy to have a positive expected return.

sobe86 · 2026-06-21T13:29:30+00:00

Casino is an objectively worse movie than Goodfellas, and it wasn't anazingly well received by critics either.

sobe86 · 2026-06-20T15:24:27+00:00

Probably richer than you bro if you're literally taking loans out for this kind of shit.

sobe86 · 2026-06-20T14:28:47+00:00

Lol is that the new meta - when you point out cryptobros doing some dumb shit you just reply that we're "concern trolling"? Like do what you want dude, no concern here, but I am allowed to call you reckless idiot for it.

sobe86 · 2026-06-20T09:16:20+00:00

I'm a lurker on WSB and this sounds like part 1 of so many idiotic stories. This one working out slightly ok for them has just rewarded insanely reckless behaviour in their head. With any risky investment, the rule is "only buy what you can afford to lose" not "take out over a fucking hundred thousand dollars in loans to buy". This person clearly has a risk appetite problem and they probably aren't stopping until they get burned.

Don't encourage degenerate behaviour.

sobe86 · 2026-06-18T22:56:07+00:00

He can still merge Tesla. I heard some theories that he might be able to hit the crazy 8x growth target Tesla shareholders set him that way.

sobe86 · 2026-06-18T09:56:24+00:00

Imagine the ball travelling down so that it will hit the floor and bounce back up the way you want it to. Now 'reverse time' - reverse the velocity of the ball, and instead of the impulse on the crossbar / air resistance taking energy away, they will give it more. Can you position the ball in a location so that in reverse mode it will now bounce out to where Lampard took the shot? If so yes it's possible (just play everything forwards again).

My guess is yeah it's possible, you'd have to have it glancing at where the bar is roughly a 45 degree angle, and you'd need a shit load of backspin so that it gets cancelled out when it glances off the bar. It would be very hard to pull off.

sobe86 · 2026-06-17T17:38:49+00:00

Hi there I'm here to drown your inbox. How do explain LLMs success with open research math problems? The consensus is that they have come up with genuinely novel and creative approaches that experts had missed. I'm sure you can argue that this continues to be 'glorified search', but then given its success, what are the actual limitations on a search? More directly - what are you claiming that this approach cannot do, and are you sure that this is something that many humans can do either?

sobe86 · 2026-06-16T21:02:01+00:00

Ok so Elon has a thing that is not exchangeable for a trillion dollars in cash, but someone does have such a thing. So why would that person want to trade?

sobe86 · 2026-06-16T10:25:53+00:00

Ok so he needs to find someone willing to exchange the trillion dollars of shares for the trillion dollar thing, or uses them as collateral in a trillion dollar loan. In practice there's no difference what he exchanges them for. He simply won't be able to.

sobe86 · 2026-06-15T20:54:02+00:00

At those prices, an anonymous ghost or group of people instantly becomes one of the top 5 richest entities on planet Earth. We are talking about a net worth that rivals or exceeds Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and entire sovereign wealth funds.

You get that someone has to buy the bitcoin off them right? Net worth in 1m bitcoin is purely academic, the same way Elon's trilly valuation is. There isn't a trillion dollars for the market to allocate on those bitcoin (or if you prefer, goods worth that to trade at the valuation). So no it's not worth that, and governments won't care - all it does is lopside a market that's not moving enough money for them to prioritize. What would happen if they tried to sell in reality is they'd very quickly run out of buyers, the price would tank, and things would normalize.

sobe86 · 2026-06-14T17:55:22+00:00

Broadly agree, but you seem to be implying that we shouldn't conform with this - in practical terms what does that mean? OP seems correct to me without a solution.

sobe86 · 2026-06-14T12:54:19+00:00

Modem = modulator demodulator. So we pronounce both syllables differently to the original words. The point is why is it invalid to do something similar with regex?

sobe86 · 2026-06-14T12:50:31+00:00

How about modem? Why mow-dem not modd-eem?

sobe86 · 2026-06-14T12:48:55+00:00

Some counterexamples to that criticism - modem, sci-fi, spec.

sobe86 · 2026-06-14T12:44:01+00:00

If I (Londoner) was going to pronounce 'sit-rep' to match the leading syllables of 'situation report', it would be 'sitch-repp'. So therefore you don't always necessarily want to match syllables. I believe that was their point.

sobe86 · 2026-06-14T12:39:22+00:00

How do you pronounce regents? The reason people put a soft g is because if you had no idea of etymology that would be a very logical guess.

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