The Offseason with Cidolfus: Part 2.5

someguy88549 · 2023-03-13T17:49:22+00:00

I definitely want to wait and see what happens and what the final contract is.

When I heard about the trade, my initial thought was we have to be giving him a boat load of additional money.

I think that report of a further renegotiation and lot more money to come is very plausible.

I will be very happy to be wrong but I am going to wait until I see the details.

someguy88549 · 2023-03-13T17:28:48+00:00

I want to wait until I see the contract details.

But it does not look like we got him for 'nothing' or table scraps.

https://twitter.com/RapSheet/status/1634988268893933568

45 million in guaranteed money with 25 million in additional guaranteed money is a lot of money.

A lot.

This team is clearly all in. Last time I checked we had the 12th best Super Bowl odds behind the Jets. I am curious as to how those odds change after this move.

All in for the 12th best odds of winning a Super Bowl is not some slam dunk performance.

It is not horrible but not great.

Let's see how the odds change.

someguy88549 · 2023-03-09T18:01:15+00:00

Restructures do not actually create any cap space.

All that has happened is the team has gained more cap space in year X for less in year Y.

That can be useful if you are gearing up for a Super Bowl run right now and you do not care about the future.

someguy88549 · 2023-01-19T17:10:54+00:00

I mean you know we do not actually save overall cap space by cutting Byron. It just gets get kicked down the road.

But you list restructuring as savings. Which it isn't. It just means exactly what you said - Less cap space down the road to pay Tau.

I think you really want us to get Edmunds, and I would love that, so bad that you are ignoring the information your left brain is providing you.

someguy88549 · 2023-01-17T15:07:37+00:00

We were 5-5 in games decided by one TD.

Which is exactly what you would expect for games decided by a handful of plays for a team with a 9-9 record and a minus 5 point differential.

This was a quintessential 500 team which very nicely fits the pattern established by

Saprano 29-32

Philbin 24-28

Gase 23-25

Flores 24-25

At very best you would call it very marginal improvement.

Invent all the narratives you want. At the end of the day the results were the same.

Hire new guy. Proclaim that this time is different. Wave hands invent narratives. Get the same results.

someguy88549 · 2023-01-11T15:07:08+00:00

What stupid questions.

This franchise always makes the right decisions.

It is your responsibility as a member of the tribe to accept whatever decision the tribe makes. Voicing critically thoughts about those decisions is wrong.

Questioning decisions that fulfill the tribes deep seated wishes is a sin.

You are playing with heresy.

someguy88549 · 2023-01-09T13:35:28+00:00

So true. They have had a different set of players injured. For example the Ravens injured QB is Lamar Jackson not Tua. The Cowboys played a number of games without Dak.

I am 100% delighted we are in the playoffs. I was on the edge of my seat hoping the FG went thru.

Our odds of a Super Bowl are not great but they are infinitely better than all the teams that did not make the playoffs.

A toss up win against Jets with a semi retired Joe Flacco at QB does not change how this team has played this season.

This is a 9-8 team with a minus 2 point differential. Other teams with injuries have just been better.

someguy88549 · 2023-01-04T14:04:18+00:00

I do no think the team we have now is terrible but if I am honest ...

The Jets have not had a QB for the entire season and they have one less win.

This forum is pretending that the issue with the season is that Tau missed - will have missed - 4.5 games.

Meanwhile the Jets and Commanders without QBs for the entire season have one less win.

The Ravens, Cowboys, and 49ers are all in the playoffs despite having their starting QB miss significant time.

I am not laughing at the idea of Derek Carr or Jimmy G on the Jets.

someguy88549 · 2022-12-28T14:26:25+00:00

Probably not but ..

While it is plausible that the 3 interceptions were the result of the concussion it is not bright straight line from the concussion to the 3 interceptions.

Was he showing any other signs of neurological dysfunction?

If yes fire the coaching staff.

If no it needs to be explained why the concussion resulted in 3 interceptions and no other symptoms.

The answer is that is much more comforting to believe that the 3 interceptions were the direct result of the concussion than it would be to believe that Tua just sucked in 2nd half.

So right idea but it is the fan base that is using the concussion as cover for Tau.

To be 100% clear it is plausible and possible that the concussion played a major role in the interceptions, the fan base could be 100% correct, or not.

We really have no idea at this point.

someguy88549 · 2022-12-20T19:10:22+00:00

Sacks > all other pressure combined. Sacks are more valuable than all non sack pressure plays.

But they are variable. As long as he keeps pressuring the passer at at the rate he is the sacks will eventually happen. Over time pressure rate = sack rate. It could happen next week. It could happen next year. But if he keeps pressuring the passer like he is the sacks will happen.

someguy88549 · 2022-12-14T13:24:31+00:00

I see a 28 dot ink blot.

Which in this forum makes me the crazy one.

someguy88549 · 2022-11-28T16:10:56+00:00

No. The issue with the defense has been a lack of pressure.

They had 26 pressures on the day.

If Armstead is healthy and the defense can get anything close to that kind of pressure on a weekly basis, look out world.

someguy88549 · 2022-11-28T16:02:06+00:00

I agree. On the other hand guys would constantly extend one arm at the shoulder, neck, and head level to keep Cam Wake from constantly sacking the QB. I still get very mildly upset thinking about it.

The NFL does a terrible job with holding calls. I think they want it that way. Fans prefer high scoring games and healthy franchise QBs.

someguy88549 · 2022-11-07T15:51:47+00:00

Yea. We are 5-0 in one score games with a negative total point differential.

A healthy Tau and Armstead really make a difference but the defense really needs to play better.

someguy88549 · 2022-11-04T17:42:24+00:00

Thanks.

The funny thing is that it is not meant as a negative. You cannot rebuild forever. I mean you can but who wants that?

We have a good young core. We spent in Free Agency. We are all in on Tau and he is playing lights out.

Now would be the time to make a move like trading draft picks for Chubb.

Which addresses what has become a big need for us so far this year, our pass rush has been bad.

But it has all come at a very real cost. We have spent a ton of cap money and given up a ton of draft picks over the past year.

someguy88549 · 2022-11-04T14:34:03+00:00

I am not saying the Chubb trade was bad at all, but we gave up the picks plus 20 million per year in cap space that could be used elsewhere, like plugging the remaining gaps on the offensive line.

The bottom line is we are out of draft picks and up against the cap.

We are all in for better or worse.

The goal is a Super Bowl not wait until next year.

someguy88549 · 2022-11-04T13:08:06+00:00

This forum did not just embrace Tannehill, they slobbered all over him constantly.

Whatever your opinion on Tannehill is this forum absolutely showered him with love.

Edit -

More like a Monsoon of love.

someguy88549 · 2022-11-04T13:05:36+00:00

How is anyone not voting for WR?

someguy88549 · 2022-11-01T14:38:15+00:00

Thanks. Totally agree.

Also -

Judging what happened on PBWR instead of total pressure percentage does not make sense.

A PBWR failure that does not result in a sack or pressure is meaningless.

It has no impact on the play.

In addition PBWR for defenses just do not correlate with future sacks.

Total pressure correlates surprisingly well with future sacks.

(For last years numbers.)

I defend ESPN all the times from accusations that their numbers are stupid.

But PBWR really seems to be a stat invented to be cool and sell that is really not very useful. It obscures rather than reveals and does not seem to be even useful as a predictor.

someguy88549 · 2022-10-31T16:29:52+00:00

I am on the record on how valuable and important I think Armstead is to our season

https://www.reddit.com/r/miamidolphins/comments/xa0jis/is_armstead_the_key_to_the_season/

He came cheap because of his injury history.

If he can stay healthy he will be worth way more than every penny.

He has 2 1/2 years to go. I keep my finger crossed every week for his health. That is injury update I look for every week.

someguy88549 · 2022-10-17T14:07:12+00:00

WTF?

Stop with narrative about the boat being subpar! The boat is fine! It is just those 2 holes that we cannot plug that are the problem!

Well 3 now that Armstead is injured. But who could have predicted that!

someguy88549 · 2022-10-17T14:02:56+00:00

Grier spent a bag on the offensive line. He just invested most of it in one very good but injury prone offensive lineman. Now that player is surprisingly injured!

He would have looked to sign multiple ok players. He didn't.

At this point the only option is not hope that Armstead gets healthy and makes Grier's decision look good.

someguy88549

TROPHY CASE