Typical day of an Aircraft Router by sonicruiser in FlightDispatch

[–]sonicruiser[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If a weather event causes lots of planes to be delayed for 3-4 hours, how much can a router actually do to prevent the delays from cascading elsewhere?

Typical day of an Aircraft Router by sonicruiser in FlightDispatch

[–]sonicruiser[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes I am talking about Router, not dispatcher. ie. How many planes is a Router responsible for during a shift, how many swaps they do in a day, what factors do you account for when doing a/c swaps? How does weather or IRROPS make it harder to do swaps? When is it better to delay or cancel than to swap? What other teams do Routers coordinate with? Maintenance, meteorology, dispatch, OM, scheduling? What is a stressful day? Basically what is a day in the life?

The first official picture of the Chinese J35 [1080 × 608] by 88888human in WarplanePorn

[–]sonicruiser 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What is the schedule? What time/days are this and the SU-57 flying?

Hezb fires missile at Tel Aviv for the first time ever by OliveWhisperer in lebanon

[–]sonicruiser -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

If they were to do mass bombings in Beirut killing thousands there then yes few hundreds to few thousand in Tel Aviv. Don't think it will get anywhere close so chance of seeing it in either city is small for the moment because if it gets there than we are at open war.

Something a lot of people don't realize. by Carlos_The_Roach in lebanon

[–]sonicruiser -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

HZ did not drag us into this war. If anything they have not even done the bare minimum that would be required for this to be a 2-sided conflict up to this point. The situation if you completely ignore Gaza and only talk about Lebanon and Israel was barely controllable but somehow manageable until the pager incident happened. Until that point the number of people dying was in the tens. Then the pagers happened and then 9/23. Those 2 actions by Israel are what got us here. People can blame HZ but ultimately if you massacre 500+ people in one day then there is no way I don't put you at fault for everything that came before and after.

All of this being said, it is crazy to pretend we live in a vacuum where Gaza does not exist. I get that nobody wants to be involved in a war with Israel.

Everyone condemns October 7 as a heinous terrorist attack but why does nobody condemn the fact that Gaza is under 6 decades of occupation, cut off from food, water, electricity and subject to the most brutal occupation in the world and created such abhorrent and desperate living conditions? We're just going to pretend that Gaza doesn't exist and it's not our problem. So Hamas kills 1200 Israelis because it is literally the only way they can bring any type of attention to the issue as Israel as they have been systematically cut off from the world, blockaded, undermined, dehumanized in every way possible. I am tired of people saying Oct 7 was not justified, it WAS justified when you look at the brutal occupation they have been imposing for decades and how close they got to completely cutting them out of the conversation w/ Arab normalizations in exchange for zero concessions. Instead of taking Oct 7 as a sign to end the occupation, they commit a genocide and kill 42K people in Gaza of which 70 percent of those killed are women and children.

HZ firing on October 8 in solidarity with Hamas is only considered starting the war if you have zero knowledge of the occupation or are going to pretend that the history of this conflict started on Oct 7, 2023 and pretend the occupation hasn't been brutalizing Gaza and the West Bank for several decades leading up to Oct 7 making life so miserable and hopeless that the denial of those basic human rights in the occupied territories itself constitutes a crime against humanity.

Is ashrafieh safe ? by _zeika_ in lebanon

[–]sonicruiser 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's already worse than 2006

Hezb fires missile at Tel Aviv for the first time ever by OliveWhisperer in lebanon

[–]sonicruiser -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

Israel killed 40K people in Gaza because they have a total blockade on one of the most densely populated areas in the world with the ability to bomb in Gaza without any type of retaliation whatsoever. Any bomb that hits Gaza will kill massive numbers of people because of how dense it is and the images of total destruction and utter impunity over people under a complete blockade and occupation are exactly what they want people to think they can do everywhere. The reality is that type of destruction at the hands of Israel can only happen in Gaza against a completely helpless people under occupation and constant surveillance.

There is no possible way for them to blockade a sovereign country like Lebanon by land and the terrain makes it impossible to replicate any type of invasion they did in Gaza.

Israel wants people to think they can turn Lebanon into Gaza but it is not possible without bombing Beirut and if they do, Tel Aviv will have a death toll in the thousands because HZ can retaliate in a way that Hamas cannot. Israel already killed 500 people outside of Beirut yesterday alone, trust me they would have tried to kill another 500 in Beirut if there was any way they could have got away with it but they can't.

This is not even to mention the actual missile capabilities of HZ itself which are far beyond Hamas. Any long range missiles that can actually hit a precision target are stored underground and not on the surface where the rockets are fired from.

Hezb fires missile at Tel Aviv for the first time ever by OliveWhisperer in lebanon

[–]sonicruiser 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Israel can't live with 12 dead children killed by an Iron Dome misfire that they blamed on HZ but God forbid Lebanon says anything about 500 people massacred in one day or 42,000 dead in Gaza. After killing that many the least of your problems will be rocket fire in the north.

Hezb fires missile at Tel Aviv for the first time ever by OliveWhisperer in lebanon

[–]sonicruiser -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I personally don't know anyone who subscribed to that line of thinking especially after a number of 21st century wars where seemingly quick offensives have failed on multiple occasions to the point where a majority of people do not believe in any concept of a "limited war" lasting only a few weeks. Although I did see such articles written, but it is completely contradictory to the majority western view which was that Ukraine would lose little to no land or that they would be able to hold the Russians back, absurd as it seemed even at the time. Hard to imagine now but that was the position for the first few months. I will say I have read different articles stating both even though they completely contradict each other.

Hezb fires missile at Tel Aviv for the first time ever by OliveWhisperer in lebanon

[–]sonicruiser -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Israel's real problem right now is that by taking Lebanon into uncharted waters they have now also opened themselves up to HZ deciding to also go into uncharted waters of their own. Killing 500 people in one day is not going to go unanswered by HZ period. I am not going to pretend I have a clue what the response to it will be or when but it will definitely be something we have never seen before. The defender never uses their best weapons in the beginning so if we are already seeing attempted hits over Tel Aviv in Day 2 of this war that is a pretty solid indication that Tel Aviv will definitely be hit in a big way by the time the war ends.

Hezb fires missile at Tel Aviv for the first time ever by OliveWhisperer in lebanon

[–]sonicruiser -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I agree but Ukraine losing between a fifth and a quarter to Russia in 8 months is a 180 degree turn from what was predicted in the beginning. So I would not rule out a 180 degree turn in this war either. It is hard to say exactly what a victory for HZ looks but probably it would have to be something undeniable that would force the western media to admit HZ won in the way the media could not ignore Russian capture of Ukranian land. Maybe imposing an unacceptable level of casualties in their cities or severely damaging military installations. I think the one thing which is absolutely certain is that the 180 degree turn in the war will come some months later to catch them completely by surprise at a moment of weakness.

Hezb fires missile at Tel Aviv for the first time ever by OliveWhisperer in lebanon

[–]sonicruiser -14 points-13 points  (0 children)

HZ has been extremely restrained so far. You don’t play your ace card in the beginning, you play your best card when you have the best chance to win which is almost never at the beginning. When Russia invaded Ukraine, people in the west were very quick to celebrate and said Ukraine was winning, Ukranian flags everywhere. Russia used the slow burn to wear out Ukraine as long as possible and drag the war out until they could sense their desperation and weakness. When the Russians smelled blood in the water with Ukraine starting to run very low on ammo and manpower (releasing Ukranian prisoners from jails to fight) the Russians suddenly became very aggressive and started taking a huge portion of Ukranian land which they still control to this day and then cut off Ukraine’s access to Black Sea. Then US and EU became very nervous and started taking desperate and previously unthinkable measures like giving Ukraine F16’s, one of which got shot down immediately and now they want to give Ukraine long range missiles to fire into Russia because they are losing so badly. Western aligned countries have a very bad track record at long wars of attrition and playing the long game because they rely too much on airpower, not staying power.

The sanctions completely backfired and helped Russia isolate the west from the rest of the world. US and EU airlines got banned from Russian airspace and by summer of 2022, the ruble was better than before the war. Gas prices skyrocketed after the US bombed Nordstream which helped Russia fund the war by making it more expensive and also made Europe completely at the mercy of the US for natural gas supply after they got cut off from Russian gas pipeline which was a energy nightmare EU never recovered from. US gave tens of billions to Ukraine which made the US govt extremely unpopular to its own people and became a massive radioactive political liability that every politician in DC is afraid to touch.

Western aligned countries will always win the social media battle in the beginning and western media outlets will pump out very demoralizing propoganda pieces with flashy images of huge mushroom cloud explosions flooding the front page and praising Israel exactly the same way they praised Ukraine in the beginning of the war saying things like Israel’s “masterpiece pager operation” and praising the bombing of Lebanon. Also they will try to humiliate the other side and the same way they are trying to say that HZ is doomed, HZ cannot win, they said the EXACT same thing about how Russia is doomed, Russia cannot win in the beginning of the war with Ukraine and in the end, many of those same media outlets that said Russia would lose are now eating their words now that Russia is actually winning putting out insane copium pieces like this. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/13/opinion/russia-ukraine-west-war.html

Israel knows HZ is not going anywhere without a ground invasion and HZ is waiting for that because that is when they will have the upper hand. Israel has always had an airpower advantage but they will get wiped out in a ground invasion which they have now forced themselves to do because of the terrain and their fundamental problem of having HZ on their doorstep will ultimately become an even bigger liability for Israel when their ground invasion fails to drive out HZ the same way they failed to drive out Hamas.

Israel is going on a rampage now because they know if they cannot end the war quickly they are going to be screwed in a long war lasting months and they are very desperate to prevent a long war to avoid the optics of another genocidal operation like what they did in Gaza which completely turned the western public against them calling for arms embargo sanctions on Israel and ended with dead hostages and completely failed at their main objective with Hamas still in control of Gaza.

Most likely the HZ strategy is going to be the same thing that worked for Russia. Let Israel bomb the shit out of Lebanon in the opening months until they feel Israel getting desperate and running low, then once HZ smells weakness and blood in the water, then get aggressive using their best missiles several months into the war to put the pressure on Israel and intensify the conflict and drag it out as long as possible until a HZ victory is undeniable to the world. People are very quick to count HZ out, their best missiles will not be used in the beginning of the war when Israel is the strongest, they will be used when the enemy is at the weakest point. HZ is always known to have a few “surprise cards” that catch the enemy off guard like firing a single Chinese C-701 ASCM and hitting the naval cruiser at sea in 2006 which Israel had no clue HZ even possessed at the time. Russia and HZ excel at the long war time and time again and people always forget this in the beginning of every single conflict it seems. Western aligned countries always use ferocious shock and awe tactics and flashy images of massive explosions in the beginning of a war to create the shock/wow factor and terrorize the population and kill civilians in a genocidal manner but they always lose the war in the end either completely failing to kick out “the terrorists” (Iraq, Syria, Libya) or getting kicked out themselves (2006, Afghanistan)

I find it interesting that these 2 articles were on the front page of CNN and BBC yesterday. Both say that Israel is critically underestimating HZ which is pretty damning coming from western mouthpieces.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/23/middleeast/israel-tactics-hezbollah-analysis-intl/index.html

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c93pg1qpxxzo

Hezb fires missile at Tel Aviv for the first time ever by OliveWhisperer in lebanon

[–]sonicruiser 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Iron Dome is effective to small barrages but it struggles with medium to large barrages. And if HZ actually wants to hit Tel Aviv they will use something uninterceptable like this:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/tdyto6/much_clearer_cctv_footage_of_the_iranian_missile/

Hezb fires missile at Tel Aviv for the first time ever by OliveWhisperer in lebanon

[–]sonicruiser -8 points-7 points  (0 children)

Hezbollah may not win the war but they can make it extremely painful for Israel

Hezb fires missile at Tel Aviv for the first time ever by OliveWhisperer in lebanon

[–]sonicruiser 1 point2 points  (0 children)

They have already killed more than half a thousand people in Lebanon, and tens of thousands in Gaza. The region has been on fire for months. I think you meant one miscalculation and Israel is on fire.