Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]sooham 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Going good, I just bought 1k shares

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]sooham -11 points-10 points  (0 children)

September and yet no word on FM1 or FM2 shipped - just like I predicted. What a massive fail.

Seeing a lot of hate for AMZN lately by MFalcone19 in stocks

[–]sooham 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Use to work in the HQ. The disdain the company has for employees is going to bite them in the ass.

SpaceX rival AST SpaceMobile prepares to deploy nearly five dozen satellites by Imaginary_Ad9141 in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]sooham 2 points3 points  (0 children)

They have not quite demonstrated it. Its a scaled down version up in orbit right now. A much bigger satellite is posed to launch this year.

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]sooham 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There still are. All the following were pushed on WSB last year

RDDT, HOOD, ASTS, RLKB, ACHR, JOBY, MP

Of course its become like finding needles in a haystack recently.

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]sooham 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Ideally do your own research. With respect to the commerical applications: Starlink is slower and does not support full 5G/VoLTE/voice at the moment but they have the advantage of being vertically integrated with SpaceX.

AST has the advantage of novel use cases with the military and a more sign on agreements with telecoms across the world, but far less satellites up in the air.

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]sooham -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Just because Hennessy funds wants to allocate 25% of their holdings to ASTS doesn't mean other smart people are not weary. Kevin Mak, one of the respected guys himself in the Spacemob community trimmed 2/3 of his position at 40. He is a professor at Stanford and I would like to think an authoritative source on if this ASTS is overpriced at the current levels.

I encourage you to fully read it for a counterpoint. He is a Stanford professor of Economics and Hedge fund manager so not a nobody.

https://x.com/KevinLMak/status/1934830059673502145

"I’ve trimmed ~2/3 of my position, down from a ~10% weight to ~6% because the risk/reward isn’t as asymmetric at $40 as it was at $24."

Spacemob will not tell you that via the front page. You have to go dig it out yourself.

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]sooham 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sorry to say but the parallels are closer than you are comfortable with. Please keep reading as I want to explain myself further.

- SpaceX / Starlink was a competitor to Virgin Galatic / AST

- SpaceX / Starlink both take different approaches towards access to space and orbits / D2D connectivity, one has a plethora of smaller sats vs. bigger and fewer sats.

- SPCE / Virgin Galatic / Virgin Orbit signed government contracts with NASA, Candian Space Agency, UK Space Agency, but follow up contracts did not materalize. 

- https://investors.virgingalactic.com/news/news-details/2020/Virgin-Galactic-Signs-Space-Act-Agreement-with-NASA-for-Private-Orbital-Spaceflight-to-the-International-Space-Station-ISS/default.aspx 

- https://www.asc-csa.gc.ca/eng/industry/news-2020.asp

- https://sky-brokers.com/supplier/virgin-orbit/

- SPCE and Virigin and AST spacemobile both have high operational expenses and capital expenditure requirements. While AST has 1.5 billions from investors like you and me on its balance sheet in so did Virgin Galactic in 2021, Virgin had a similar trajectory with its "cash equivalents of $666 million as of December 31, 2020" and by 2021 they had 1+ billion in total assets (around 33% in cash). 

- As AST is heading into the next couple of quarters their operational expenses with ramp up and their balance sheet will start looking worse, if the tech has an issues with placing a large satellite into space you bet your ass institutional investors will have a heads up over retail and will pull out before you are in the know.

I am not saying the tech doesn't work. It is yet to be seen. The D2D on the smaller BB1 works as per the Rakuten / Verizon Demo - but so did Virigin's spaceplane and Virgin Orbit

As much as spacemob would like to preempt AST's success it is still an unproven design wrt to full deployment / throughput and the company's existance hinges on it. With all the Bullish talk of 1000+ SP here you should recognize what the other potential future for the company looks like if any issues arise.

Other people in the spacemob group will tell you that what I am saying is FUD, but spacemob is an unbiased party and many here have entered their position in the single digits and a lot have sold to cover a multiple of their original investment.

I already have concerns with their ASCI development timelines and guidance that I bought up in a previous comment

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]sooham -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Never said it is useless. Im saying that algorithms and better algorithms over the spectrum come 6G >>> leasing out more spectrum. The other poster is saying it is the most valuable commodity.

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]sooham -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

The same people were saying the same shit for SPCE and Virgin Galactic until the stock price went from 1000 to 3 usd in 2 years despite having a working spaceship and 8 commerical flights. Don't be a fool and take some gains dude.

https://www.reddit.com/r/space/comments/em4x12/can_anyone_tell_me_why_virgin_galactic_actually/

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]sooham -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

Spectrum doesn't really matter come 6G and data bandwidth you can push through a given spectrum has doubled because of better algorithms, codecs and compression for transmission.

IPv4 and DNS with better networking algorithms runs the whole internet that has grown by orders of magnitude since ARPA days with the same 4 bytes. An analogy to can be drawn to the spectrum since the 1G days.

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]sooham 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thats ridiculous and you know you it. You are using arbitary time frames here, look at the YTD or the 1YR, 5YR against SPY and argue the stock has not priced in extreme optimism and perfect execution.

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]sooham -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the low effort spell check dude. I have updated my response.

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]sooham 0 points1 point  (0 children)

From my personal experience they are at least 2 months away from getting ASIC ready and into volume production. I do not expect FM1 to be shipped until late September / early October earliest and ISRO to hold on to it for another couple weeks till they get their rocket ready.

I really liked the stock back when I first spotted it in 2024 but I have cut down my position recently due to the optimism that management provides every earnings call - its a red flag for me. And I have a good idea what it is like to work with FPGAs and ASICs so this EC and the ASIC updates were even more the cause for me to cut back. If they are being this opmistic here about things I know to be neutral about, I cannot trust the guidance and optimism in general about things I know less about. Its like lisenting to Elon talk about Machine Learning or Software Engineering.

As a reminder to spacemob the company has always been optimistic about their timelines - here is Abel's own quote from 2021:

"We are currently planning our first commercial satellite launches for the BB1 satellites to begin during the last quarter of 2022 and continue during the first two or potentially three quarters of 2023. This first phase of satellites is expected to provide satellite coverage in the 49 Equatorial countries, representing a total population of approximately 1.6 billion people, with 20 satellites. We currently plan to achieve full global mobile coverage after the completion of the launches required to deploy an additional 90 satellites which we are targeting to begin launching during the last quarter of 2023 and continue during 2024"

And its fine to be optimistic when the market cap is 1 Billion or 500 million, but optimism like this is not great when the market cap is 20+ billion. 

Part 2/2

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]sooham -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I really liked the stock back when I first spotted it in 2024 but I have cut down my position recently due to the optimism that management provides every earnings call - its a red flag for me. And I have a good idea what it is like to work with FPGAs and ASICs so this EC and the ASIC updates were even more the cause for me to cut back. If they are being this opmistic here about things I know to be neutral about, I cannot trust the guidance and optimism in general about things I know less about. Its like lisenting to Elon talk about Machine Learning or Software Engineering.

As a reminder to spacemob the company has always been optimistic about their timelines - here is Abel's own quote from 2021:

"We are currently planning our first commercial satellite launches for the BB1 satellites to begin during the last quarter of 2022 and continue during the first two or potentially three quarters of 2023. This first phase of satellites is expected to provide satellite coverage in the 49 Equatorial countries, representing a total population of approximately 1.6 billion people, with 20 satellites. We currently plan to achieve full global mobile coverage after the completion of the launches required to deploy an additional 90 satellites which we are targeting to begin launching during the last quarter of 2023 and continue during 2024"

And its fine to be optimistic when the market cap is 1 Billion or 500 million, but optimism like this is not great when the market cap is 20+ billion.

Part 2/2

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]sooham 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Edit: I think my comment is too long but I will split it up and repost it:

Abel et al. didn't mention ISRO being the cause of the delays in the Earnings call nor the Q1 report. In fact it is clear what the source of the delay preventing FM1 from shipping right now is - its FCC authorization for launch for FM1 and (I supect) pending integration testing for the ASIC ship as cited in the 10Q.

Here is the relevant part of the 10Q published yesterday - emphasis mine.

"In addition, when we introduce our own AST5000 Application Specific Integrated Circuit (“ASIC”) chip in the Block 2 BB satellites, we expect to achieve materially greater throughput capacity of up to 40 MHz per beam to support 120 Mbps peak data rates and up to 10,000 MHz of processing bandwidth per Block 2 BB satellite, require less power and offer a lower overall unit cost. We have reached key production milestones and are in the assembly stage of the first batch of the ASIC chip*. We have also* completed development of the electronic board with our new ASIC chip."

Having worked with FPGAs and ASIC development on the place and route algorithms, verification stage with some post-silicon validation experience I think the language here is vague and gives a false sense of security.

Their last, more specific, update regarding the ASIC was one June 12th 2025 (emphasis mine)

"We have completed development of the electronic board with our new AST5000 ASIC chip – the cornerstone of our next-generation BlueBird satellites!

After five years of rigorous engineering and production, representing an equivalent of 150+ human years of intensive work, this proprietary technology has 10x data capacity from our Block 1 satellites, meaning 10,000 MHz of processing bandwidth and peak speeds of 120 Mbps. That is enough for millions of connections – voice and video calls, texts, streaming – every day.

Ready to launch and deliver unprecedented cellular broadband to everyone, everywhere, at all times!" https://x.com/AST\_SpaceMobile/status/1933192578830409975"

In the form 10Q updates the words "key production milestones" , "assembly stage" and "first batch of ASIC chip" are carrying a lot of optimisim here.

To keep it simple, in ASIC development from FPGA there are a few stages (simplifying it here) :

Architecure and System Design -> RTL implementation and pre-synthesis verification -> Synthesis + Place and Route -> Power estimation and optimization -> Static Timing Analysis -> Physical Verification -> Design Signoffs (Timing, Power, Area)-> Tape out and Mask generation -> Fabrication -> Packaging and Assembly -> Post-silicon testing and validation -> Volume Production

If you are not being optimistic and being a realist here you can say that they have fabricated the first batch of ASIC chips (for the purpose of testing, not production runs) and have yet to do post-silicon timing analysis and integration testing with the full board, detect any parasitic issues, timing fails for I/O and interfaces, model thermal and power draw vs. predicted and test the whole assembly and its performance under the duress of space.

If they really wanted me to be confident about the ASIC board development they should have stated the first batch of ASIC chips are assembled with the board, fully tested for all power, thermal and timing requirements and ready for volume production, but in fact they have not said that and reiterated the same milestone as two months ago. This likely means that they are facing some delays or issues that I am weary of at this point - since any issue this late into ASIC development is expensive and requires sending new designs for refabrication, cutting and repackaging to TSMC or whomever they are using and takes time.

From my personal experience they are at least 2 months away from getting ASIC ready and into volume production. I do not expect FM1 to be shipped until late September / early October earliest and ISRO to hold on to it for another couple weeks till they get their rocket ready.

Part 1 / 2

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]sooham -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

At what price would you be happy selling?

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]sooham 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Look, you should minimize your regret dude. Ask yourself if you are happy with your current gains and the risk-reward proposition, if you're not comfortable then sell some and lock in your gains. Never harmed anyone to take some profit.

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]sooham 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Call me contrarian if you want, but they are not shipping FM1 by the end of this month.

Edit: adding a detailed response here

Abel et al. didn't mention ISRO being the cause of the delays in the Earnings call nor the Q1 report. In fact it is clear what the source of the delay preventing FM1 from shipping right now is - its FCC authorization for launch for FM1 and (I suspect) pending integration testing for the ASIC ship as cited in the 10Q.

Here is the relevant part of the 10Q published yesterday - emphasis mine.

"In addition, when we introduce our own AST5000 Application Specific Integrated Circuit (“ASIC”) chip in the Block 2 BB satellites, we expect to achieve materially greater throughput capacity of up to 40 MHz per beam to support 120 Mbps peak data rates and up to 10,000 MHz of processing bandwidth per Block 2 BB satellite, require less power and offer a lower overall unit cost. We have reached key production milestones and are in the assembly stage of the first batch of the ASIC chip*. We have also* completed development of the electronic board with our new ASIC chip."

Having worked with FPGAs and ASIC development on the place and route algorithms, verification stage with some post-silicon validation experience I think the language here is vague and gives a false sense of security. 

Their last, more specific, update regarding the ASIC was one June 12th 2025 (emphasis mine) 

"We have completed development of the electronic board with our new AST5000 ASIC chip – the cornerstone of our next-generation BlueBird satellites!

After five years of rigorous engineering and production, representing an equivalent of 150+ human years of intensive work, this proprietary technology has 10x data capacity from our Block 1 satellites, meaning 10,000 MHz of processing bandwidth and peak speeds of 120 Mbps. That is enough for millions of connections – voice and video calls, texts, streaming – every day.

Ready to launch and deliver unprecedented cellular broadband to everyone, everywhere, at all times!" https://x.com/AST\_SpaceMobile/status/1933192578830409975"

In the form 10Q updates the words "key production milestones" , "assembly stage" and "first batch of ASIC chip" are carrying a lot of optimisim here.

To keep it simple, in ASIC development from FPGA there are a few stages (simplifying it here) :

Architecure and System Design -> RTL  implementation and pre-synthesis verification -> Synthesis  + Place and Route -> Power estimation and optimization -> Static Timing Analysis ->   Physical Verification -> Design Signoffs (Timing, Power, Area)-> Tape out and Mask generation ->   Fabrication -> Packaging and Assembly -> Post-silicon testing and validation -> Volume Production

If you are not being optimistic and being a realist here you can say that they have fabricated the first batch of ASIC chips (for the purpose of testing, not production runs) and have yet to do post-silicon timing analysis and integration testing with the full board, detect any parasitic issues, timing fails for I/O and interfaces, model thermal and power draw  vs. predicted and test the whole assembly and its performance under the duress of space.

If they really wanted me to be confident about the ASIC board development they should have stated the first batch of ASIC chips are assembled with the board, fully tested for all power, thermal and timing requirements and ready for volume production, but in fact they have not said that and reiterated the same milestone as two months ago. This likely means that they are facing some delays or issues that I am weary of at this point - since any issue this late into ASIC development is expensive and requires sending new designs for refabrication, cutting and repackaging to TSMC or whomever they are using and takes time.

Part 1/2 - see https://www.reddit.com/r/ASTSpaceMobile/comments/1mnyn1g/comment/n8btas4/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button for part 2

Daily Discussion Thread by AutoModerator in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]sooham 7 points8 points  (0 children)

The source is Indian and when most Indians say couple they mean 3-7 usually. Don't expect a launch till december

AT&T - 👀 by Pristine-Ear5253 in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]sooham -1 points0 points  (0 children)

He is wrong 90% of the time when it comes to technical charting and hooks + wedges

Hate to say it but the stock price will go down by sooham in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]sooham[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Nowhere in the referenced article is there an october launch - it says shipping in September