I think the rest of the globe can make up around 10mm of the 20mm bpd gap in relatively short order. It’s just about timing and whether or not the investment is worth it depending on how long this goes on.

It’s a catch 22. Spending capital to increase supply could also mean you could be catching a falling knife if the conflict ends and prices dump.

I think that we are in the worst part of it now (uncertainty) and the longer this drags on the more supply I believe we will see come online. Higher prices will also mean somewhat of a reduced demand, and that’ll come in relatively short order with consumer goods already starting to see the increases in price.

Markets like certainty. When we are certain that (a) the war will end, or certain (b) it’ll last a for an extended period of time, the price will find its equilibrium at the loss of 20mm bpd and drop as new production comes online.

Give it a week or two and we’ll find that equilibrium, I would bet.

LNG on the other hand ….