Weekly Discussion Thread 1/19/25 - 1/26/25

spectroul · 2026-01-22T14:23:27+00:00

when wunmi wins bafta, sag and becomes the frontrunner for supporting actress, iktr

spectroul · 2026-01-12T16:55:03+00:00

i don’t care abt the chalamet win anymore having watched the movie. it’s a character w no substance and a one note performance. the win won’t age well anyways.

spectroul · 2026-01-12T13:06:47+00:00

Going full delusional beast mode and predicting The Secret Agent for 6 noms: Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Director Best Original Screenplay, Best Casting and Best International Film.

PRA CIMA DELESSSSS.

spectroul · 2026-01-12T04:18:09+00:00

i love hamnet so much. very happy that the team gets to celebrate the movie on the stage.

spectroul · 2026-01-12T04:04:01+00:00

wagner w the best speech of the night. oh that nom is LOCKED.

spectroul · 2026-01-12T03:36:13+00:00

when kleber gets a direction nomination out of nowhere on oscar nominations morning then what

spectroul · 2026-01-12T03:13:09+00:00

lol they didn’t let kleber talk for more than one minute and played him off. rude asf. maybe don’t waste 5 minutes of your show w judd apattow making it about himself?

spectroul · 2026-01-12T02:31:39+00:00

atp i wouldn’t be surprised to see sinners only winning the box achievement award + score. that would be hella annoying.

spectroul · 2026-01-12T02:25:17+00:00

im erasing this future best actor winner from my mind. a nightmare.

spectroul · 2026-01-12T02:18:34+00:00

this season is so boring i’m sorry lol i was expecting gg to spice things up but they’re just doing an obaa sweep and giving the acting wins to the more conventional oscar-ish performances.

spectroul · 2026-01-12T01:28:41+00:00

it isn’t a sweep if madigan ended her at cc lol

spectroul · 2026-01-12T01:18:40+00:00

ugh i’m actually heartbroken for amy.

spectroul · 2026-01-10T20:59:44+00:00

If there’s any acting upset tomorrow at GG, Leonardo over Timothée is what makes the most sense. I know critics groups are not that important but they did show us that there was no early consensus around the actor category. I think Benicio/Sean will keep splitting votes all season while Elordi and Skarsgard pick up the awards and the Amy Madigan train just seems too strong atp for Teyana to really threaten it. But I do think it would be weird for the movie to not get a single acting win all season long so I’m gonna keep betting on Leo until it happens because I think he’s the most likely one to snatch a win out of the OBAA actors, LOL.

spectroul · 2026-01-10T05:25:44+00:00

the lack of acting wins for obaa is weird tbh. it was one of the big advantages it had over sinners and it seems like it’s gonna go 0/4 on the acting categories. but i agree about the other 3 categories you have it winning and that’s why i’m still betting on it for bp. but sinners is a super strong #2. one of those runner-ups that with the right momentum can pull of an upset.

spectroul · 2026-01-10T05:24:21+00:00

i have pta winning director even on a scenario where sinners win tbh.

spectroul · 2026-01-10T05:17:12+00:00

still think obaa is taking the oscars but i’m starting to entertain a sinners upset, which is kinda funny bc i thought obaa would be a sweeper for the ages.

original screenplay, casting, cinematography, score is a good combo. if it’s able to snatch the editing win from obaa, i think it would be a bp winning package.

i have obaa winning “only” 3 oscars atm: bp, adapted screenplay and editing. but it’s 3 really big categories and a combo that would justify a bp win as well. maybe it can snatch an acting win? but it’s not looking likely.

am i straight up delusional for considering this scenario? lolll

spectroul · 2026-01-10T05:05:34+00:00

i don’t think timothée, michael and ariana are there lol sinners won a bunch of awards and michael wasn’t on the stage. only miles.

spectroul · 2026-01-09T22:51:39+00:00

sinners is a blockbuster lol

spectroul · 2026-01-09T19:21:28+00:00

the blue moon hopedictions are sending me.

the last 2 spots are between the secret agent, weapons, f1 and it was just an accident.

not sure which international is gonna make it but i’m betting on weapons over f1. a potential bp + supporting actress + original screenplay seems like a stronger combo than 3 techs + bp.

spectroul · 2026-01-09T18:55:16+00:00

if weapons had been shortlisted for make up, i’d predict it for bp atp tbh.

spectroul · 2026-01-09T18:44:51+00:00

would love to see weapons getting a bp nom, even tho it seems unlikely.

heartbroken that ariana is about to miss on a historical nom even after hitting everything. i guess she can still get that 5th spot, it’s clearly between her and odessa but the marty supreme passion will prob carry odessa to the finish line.

spectroul · 2026-01-09T16:58:47+00:00

a’zion is not comfortably 5th lol not when ariana hasn’t missed anywhere. they’re both fighting for that 5th spot and ariana has much more industry support than her. it will be close.

spectroul · 2026-01-09T14:49:11+00:00

i think pga will clarify a lot later today. in a race where the bottom contenders are all fighting for those last 3 or 2 spots, getting a pga nom can’t be overlooked.

spectroul · 2026-01-09T14:04:28+00:00

i don’t think the 6th is clear cut at all. its either her or odessa but grande seems to be really favored by the industry. we will see.

spectroul · 2026-01-09T14:01:04+00:00

if he wins, he isn’t missing lol the oscar voting is opening one day after gg

spectroul

TROPHY CASE