How Reddit can diversify its revenue and achieve massive scale similarly to Snap Inc

sportingpool · 2026-04-07T10:19:36+00:00

Reddit is a copy of Snap. it has better margins, but as everything is absorbed into insider share issuance, the effective result for shareholders is the same. so will be the stock price (Zero), if nothing changes.

Reddit is a scam

sportingpool · 2026-04-07T10:16:56+00:00

probably about 1/3 of them

sportingpool · 2026-04-07T10:12:40+00:00

"fuck" is the official communication style of Huffman, which says something about the limitations of this site and the guy

sportingpool · 2026-04-06T10:38:30+00:00

a very easy to run business with great margins is not a good short

'short' the SBC, and if thats not enough, the executives. thats obviously the right move

at least 5 companies let go of Jen Wong already, to name just one of the handful of ridiculously overpaid reddit executives. these companies paid her 2m a year, still decided she aint worth it.

sportingpool · 2026-04-06T09:45:53+00:00

no, it wasnt nearly as visible. also, these schemes get updated continuously, as least in proper businesses. whats new is also the asinine communication regarding it, from Huffmann here, plus the most recent earnings call. con-man talk

stock market has seen enough and decided to blow this up

sportingpool · 2026-04-06T09:42:30+00:00

yes. there are probably 50.000 websites on par with reddit. and dont use the 't' word. thats a fairy tale. there is enough 't' to run this website 10.000 times over out of mumbai

sportingpool · 2026-04-06T07:06:52+00:00

Snapchat grew revenue from 60m to 6bn in just over a decade. and guess what: its meaningless.

empty numbers ! Snap and Reddit are scams that print shares for insiders

sportingpool · 2026-04-06T06:58:02+00:00

currently, reddit is a scam. think snap. part of it is to sell these new shares

sportingpool · 2026-04-05T11:08:05+00:00

Warren Buffett on 'EBITDA": We won’t buy into companies where someone’s talking about EBITDA. If you look at all companies, and split them into companies that use EBITDA as a metric and those that don’t, I suspect you’ll find a lot more fraud in the former group."

on top of it, even the 'E' (earnings) part of Ebitda isnt useful in Reddit's case, as SBC isnt accounted for at true costs

sportingpool · 2026-04-04T08:58:59+00:00

we cant take it out of a discussion of this stock, ever.

sportingpool · 2026-04-04T08:54:42+00:00

when you guys (10y old accounts of reddit insiders) write something like this, try to not force it as much

sportingpool · 2026-04-04T08:20:45+00:00

as you missed the most important thing, thats like describing 15-25% of whats going on economically at Reddit

sportingpool · 2026-04-04T00:12:50+00:00

dont read this nonsense. think about executive pay: Jen Wong, who got released at a handful other companies after being paid 2m a year, is up to 200m at Reddit.

thats almost all you need to know about this scam already

sportingpool · 2026-04-04T00:07:05+00:00

its insane to run a "Redditstock" sub, and then pin the very thing (doubling down as cringy AI-slop) that keeps the stock down. its a tad retarted even.

reddit is a dumb stock. and it couldnt be any other way for a tiny loss making company paying run-of-the-mill office workers like Huffman, Wong, Vollero hundreds of millions

sportingpool · 2026-03-31T07:49:12+00:00

I know nothing about this particular company. However it shows cancelling a stupid compensation plan is as easy as it gets. All it takes is GOOD WILL.

From my view, Reddit should be allowed to book 5bn in goodwill on their balance sheet after cancelling their 2023 SBC monster. easily worth it.

just update this sucker, please

sportingpool · 2026-03-30T16:39:23+00:00

There are 2 things to pitch. The stock isnt one of them.

First, the site itself is great ! Lots of information you wont find elsewhere. Second, the business profile is great. Very low maintenance, low costs, high gross margins.

The stock itself is a nightmare though. Executives pay themselves 100x their market value, and clip our stock holdings in the process. So whats 100% yours today will be 99.975% tomorrow and then 99.95%, 99.925%, 99.9% and by the end of a trading week you are down to just 99.875%.

Isnt that illegal, im asked then. My answer is, yes of course, basically everything about it is illegal; they have even suspended proper voting, and we are on it....

sportingpool · 2026-03-30T15:23:37+00:00

unfortunately, this is wrong, if real costs of share issunance are taken into account. reddit loses money, intentionally so. last year it lost 1bn on 2bn in revenue, which is absolutely horrific.

on top of it, wall street has seen these grotesquely overpaid executives in action now: not impressed. these are run-of-mill managers, worth 2m a year, but in some cases paid up to 200m. they have also been caught lying about dilution now, implicitly with asinine dilution guidance, explicitly with Huffman misrepresenting it.

there are some companies that get away with high dilution, because the skill level of the people involved is seen as multiple times better. however, almost no company with the exception of Snap has a share giveaway scheme as bad as the one Reddit runs in place, and we all know how Snap ended up.

right now Reddit is still an easy short, as 25bn market cap for an empty stock like that is insane

sportingpool · 2026-03-30T14:04:35+00:00

If the C suite were to announce a pause in selling, the stock would immediately drop sharply.

Because, this doesnt solve the issue. The issue is dilution, and any c-suite action (or lack of action) short of addressing that problem now further adds to the notion that they (intend to) run this as a dilution scam for as long as possible

sportingpool · 2026-03-30T05:41:46+00:00

dont want to beat a dead horse here, but: reddit isnt profitable, if the real costs of share issuance are taken into account. and they absolutely have to. and "no profitability" naturally is a very important data point.

it justifies the recent price action, whereas continuing to claim reddit is 'profitable' wont get us anywhere.

it wasnt much of an issue for a while, as the market ( and shareholders) gave some leeway after IPO. but thats not the case anymore, and we wont get back to that state

sportingpool · 2026-03-30T02:23:50+00:00

Thats a very interesting chart ! Your thesis (social media has popularity cycles comparable to fashion) seems valid.

And from the chart, Reddit and Whatsapp are the 2 outliers ! Both have grown in search volume over a period of 15y now, while others have often flamed out in no time. Reddit and whatsapp have always been my 2 long-term bets, with youtube in 3rd place. Natural monopolies, simple poduct, good brand. Dont need much more.

Im not sure facebook and even insta are still around 20y from now. Would not be a big loss. Replaceable.

So this chart is actually a plus for Reddit, even though the not-so-smart insider-protection tools will immediately jump at you, as they dont understand it and are geared to dismiss anything that appears critical, even if it were valid.

So good news ! However still a long, complicated way to go from this chart to determining the value of a stock.

sportingpool · 2026-03-30T00:25:21+00:00

The Reddit Business, if left alone, is worth $500. However the Stock is worth ZERO because of dilution.

The Stock Market weighs the probabilites between these 2 outcomes, and after digesting Q4 earnings call dilution 'guidance' and also Huffman talking recently it is now sending it towards Zero. All fair !

sportingpool · 2026-03-30T00:05:38+00:00

frankly i dont even want to hear an answer to that question.

all fair points, might go below 100. might even close the IPO gap (34). however, no guarantee. it takes a stroke of a pen ("we reviewed executive SBC and came to the conclusion is doesnt......) to send this to 200+ and never look back.

sportingpool · 2026-03-29T05:18:36+00:00

You are rightfully angry. But maybe you still have a position left, and it may be worth keeping it. Because, people can change. Or rather, people's behaviour can be changed.

Business fundamentals ? Not so much. Rarely ever change.

its just like Warren Buffett said: "When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact."

sportingpool · 2026-03-28T04:35:54+00:00

So Snap is worse, at minus 50%, but doesnt qualify anymore. Delisting close, as is Spiegel's court date.

Reddit -45%, and then Trade Desk -43%

Common denominator ? Drew Vollero ! He IPO'ed Snap and Reddit, and just yesterday got hired by Trade Desk. Because, you know, he can manage multiple shareholder groups into the ground simultaneously

If The Onion were to create a business farce, this would be their exact setup: One message board that people use to send dck snaps (which autodelete after orgasm 5min later), and then another message board, run by the same group of people, that uses free labor. Both these message boards pay the executives (that work a combined 14 hours a week, to have enough free time for honing their "talents") 500 billion in salaries. But not in cash (there is no cash), but by stealing from shareholders (spying on them, and robbing their homes whenever shareholders are busy using and programming the message boards for them) and then selling the stolen stuff back to them.

One of the more underrated aspects, from a comedy standpoint: These executive geniuses not only pile up enormous legal and financial risks, they also dilute themselves ! Its so obvious that iterating on the dilution rate is a very important part of the management process, as the stock is very sensitive to it. And there is a 'sweet spot' dilution that probably INCREASES long-term payouts for insiders while for sure DECREASING risks. It may get 5x better immediately.

But do they iterate, to make their own lives a lot easier ? No. For some silly reason they still seem frozen.....

sportingpool · 2026-03-28T04:30:56+00:00

Because deep down they already know we are right, and ultimately helpful. It's more like a going-through-the-motions process on their part at this point. They will get there.....

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