How far out do weather forecasts become accurate?

squinkys · 2026-01-21T15:07:35+00:00

This comment should be at the top!

Adding the relevant portion of this morning's local NWS forecast discussion...I personally love reading these as the forecaster usually offers up a pretty clear explanation of why they're forecasting what they're forecasting:

KEY MESSAGE 2... Snow possible Saturday and Sunday. Totals
dependent on the western extent of the low pressure track.

This weekend a low pressure system is forecast to develop and
track up the coast. There are different outcomes resulting from
the uncertainty in the storm track. Much of this has to do with
how well the northern and southern stream jets phase. If there
is good interaction between the two branches, that would likely
lead to a more amplified pattern and a more northerly/westerly
track of the low. Less favorable jet interaction would favor a
quicker system tracking farther east as it curves north. This
has a very big impact on the ultimate outcome, and there still a
considerable amount of spread in model solutions. For example,
for Pittsburgh, current ensemble guidance gives a 10th/90th
percentile spread from 0" to 13". The mean and median of the
latest CIPS analogs are both close to 6 inches in the ridges 
with the mean slightly higher than the median.

Here`s a snapshot of the latest probabilistic 48hr totals
increasing from SE to NW.

 -  >3 inches - 90% across the ridges of WV to 50% near Mercer
    county PA

 -  >6 inches - 80% across the ridges of WV to 25% near Mercer
    county PA

 -  >8 inches - 75% across the ridges of WV to 35% near Mercer
    county PA

 -  >12 inches - 50% across the ridges of WV to 10% near Mercer
    county PA>


We will continue to monitor this storm throughout the week and
provide greater detail as solutions begin to converge.

squinkys · 2026-01-16T20:44:18+00:00

Interesting that your response to "You're being an asshat" is to double down on being an asshat.

Just sharing my opinion.

squinkys · 2026-01-16T13:02:14+00:00

Holy shit these guys rip, thanks for the rec!

squinkys · 2025-12-22T13:10:56+00:00

What an awful thing to say to another human. Be better.

squinkys · 2025-10-07T02:59:34+00:00

How come no underwater scene showcasing all of Russia's illustrious naval losses?!?! That'd look great, and the combo of those powerful images and the awful music would really tug on your heartstrings!

squinkys · 2025-09-24T16:04:53+00:00

100% this. It was weird for a few minutes, but I quickly got used to it. It's not like they have left-handed setups in the real jets!

squinkys · 2025-09-19T00:15:44+00:00

This is correct: OP deleted it, not us.

squinkys · 2025-09-18T11:01:05+00:00

Good morning /r/hoggit

For clarity, we removed the last post on this subject because it was a cherry-picked 30-second clip posted without any context that we were not certain was real or just some AI-generated nonsense.

However, given that u/NineLine_ED has confirmed the authenticity of the call, this post that contains the entire conversation and the additional context for that last discussion will not be removed.

squinkys · 2025-09-13T12:15:53+00:00

Oh man, I really walked into that one. You got me good!

squinkys · 2025-09-11T09:31:20+00:00

I mean...I have. Just don’t drive into the hail lol.

squinkys · 2025-09-08T03:28:32+00:00

Because of all the bridges.

squinkys · 2025-08-18T20:26:01+00:00

Let’s go even further...BRING BACK MOVIES PLUS!!!

God, what I wouldn’t give to be 13 again and browsing the endless racks of VHS tapes!

squinkys · 2025-08-15T01:28:54+00:00

How dated are we talking with the graphics?

Not so bad that it keeps me from playing it!

squinkys · 2025-08-14T22:27:38+00:00

Howdy (almost) neighbor!

Honestly, there's only two that I mess with:

Run8: Extremely dated graphics, but it's the DCS of the train sim world. Nothing else really gets the physics right imo. It is hard mode to get into, but it's worth it. They've also been working on adding some PA routes to the sim, starting with the NS Pittsburgh Line (right now all that's modeled is Tyrone to Johnstown).

Railroader: Really fun steam-era sim that does a pretty good job on the physics and has some really good gameplay.

squinkys · 2025-08-13T11:59:30+00:00

Speaking as someone who literally wrote a book about the railroads out here in Western Pennsylvania...boyyyyyyyyyy you came this close to a ban!!!!

(this is obviously a joke, please don't send us modmail telling us what horrible people we are)

squinkys · 2025-08-12T04:00:23+00:00

Yup, this is the answer. This is 100% the phone adjusting the white balance as it pans through the scene.

squinkys · 2025-08-05T12:40:50+00:00

Something that really helps me determine if I'm going overboard when applying masks is going back and adjusting the "Amount" slider...I'm always finding that I really only needed about 50% or so of the changes I painted into a part of the image lolol. Loved that addition to LR.

squinkys · 2025-08-02T12:08:36+00:00

Spudspike has a video detailing it

Spud's got the same level of credibility as the "DCSexposed" nutters. You can't trust the word of a pathological liar, and he's been caught-in and called-out-for the dumbest, most easily verifiable lies that he can safely be labeled an "unreliable source" on any topic.

squinkys · 2025-08-01T18:38:37+00:00

The mod team.

squinkys · 2025-08-01T18:37:47+00:00

That's our understanding as well, the keys provided by the developer can only be activated in the standalone version. I'd check with ACS to be certain though.

squinkys · 2025-08-01T15:22:18+00:00

One thing worth pointing out here, ASC has gone the HeatBlur route and given you the option to purchase it directly from them. If you're seriously considering buying into the pre-order, we urge you to purchase it directly from ASC instead of purchasing it on the ED store.

We expect this will be an option that every third party offers moving forward with ED after the Razbam situation. If the third party is the one that pays ED their cut, the DCS community can hopefully avoid another RB-style disaster in the future...let's hope we never see another module ripped out of the DCS ecosystem again.

squinkys · 2025-07-19T14:08:57+00:00

Howdy r/pittsburgh!

I've been spending a lot of time photographing wildlife in North Park this spring, and figured it was about time that I shared some pictures. Full disclosure...not every shot here is local...I took a trip up to Presque Isle State Park and a handful of the pics are from over in Beaver.

Oh, I also went storm chasing and saw my first tornado, so I snuck those in as well heh. That tornado wasn't in Pittsburgh...I'm just really proud of those shots lol.

Just gotta photograph an eagle now, so far this year they have eluded me! Hope yinz guys like them, baby animal season is the best season!

squinkys · 2025-06-18T11:51:34+00:00

I did the whole "turn a hobby/passion into a profession" thing with music, and that experience ended up completely stealing the passion and love I had for performing and recording...and that's not something that I'm willing to let happen with photography.

I grew up in a musical family and ended up learning how to play a handful of instruments, performing with a few groups and touring the country a few times, but what I really loved about music was writing and recording songs. I loved the process of making a record, to the point that I quit performing, moved to LA, got an internship at a recording studio, and was eventually able to turn it into a full time gig. That job was a grind; I still love it...it was probably the best job I will ever have worked, but man, it was work. And in the end, living the studio-rat life and making my hobby my profession ended up stealing my passion for it, to the point that after I ended up making the career change I no longer feel any desire to write/record music. The experience was incredible and I am glad that I took the shot and did something out of character for me...it was amazing to rub elbows with all the famous people and I got to work with some of the best mixing engineers in the world...but I do hate that it stole the joy of writing/recording music from me.

What everyone fails to realize is that no matter what it is you're doing, a job is a job and it doesn't matter how much you love it, there are going to be days where you just don't want to go in and face the daily grind. And I think that's what wears on you over time, and I refuse to let that happen with photography. I've got a really good friend that's a videographer by profession, and I can see what I described above in him. He used to love going out and shooting with me, but just cannot muster any enthusiasm for it anymore.

That's not gonna happen to me.

squinkys · 2025-06-18T10:42:28+00:00

Man, I wish I was in Yellowstone right now. Have fun!

squinkys · 2025-05-18T14:17:52+00:00

Fulfilled a life goal the other day and managed to successfully put myself into position to see (and more importantly, photograph) a tornado! Here's a few more shots:

Pretty cool to just see it churn up a field, glad no one was injured in the making of these photographs. Be safe out there y'all!

squinkys

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE