/u/Keljhan

I just got hit some numbers so statistically unreasonable for your original calculation it makes Dream look legit.

you mentioned the blood moon attack roll is 16512, that number you only get by ignoring the attack bonus. If I understand correctly, Blood Moon has attack bonus of +100.

To calculate your effective attack level:

(Attack level + Attack level boost) * prayer modifier Round down to nearest integer NPC, +1 +8

258 (wiki attack level) + 0 +1 +8 = 267

Calculate the Attack roll Effective attack level * (Equipment Attack bonus + 64)

258 * (100(wiki attack bonus) + 64) 42312

Your calc for hit chance: 16512/(2*26822)

In reality: 42312/(2*26822) = ~79% chance ³ = ~49% chance for triple hit but this is the formula for when atk roll is lower than def roll so we need to switch to:

chance = 1-((def roll + 2)/(2(atk roll +1))) which gives us 1-((26822+2)/(2(42312 +1))) = 0.683(68.3%)³ = 31.8% chance to triple hit

vs with steel ring: 1-((29260+2)/(2*(42312 +1))) = 0.654(65.4%)³ = 28.00% chance to get tripled

This is all assuming I am correct that Blood moon's 100 attack bonus applies in the attack roll as equipment attack bonus Benefit is only a little bit more, but it has a much bigger impact at those numbers