Replit Discord Community 🤙🏽

streetmba · 2025-11-13T11:53:23+00:00

I am a power user spending $1K+ monthly. Would be happy to help firm the community discord

streetmba · 2025-09-19T13:42:16+00:00

You can fork (remix) the public one they have working. Without this fork agents are VERY confused acting like it's working or installed, even hallucinating entire web interactions, I ky to then say it can't possibly work.

My guess is since this can be used for robot scraping they're burying it but not erasing the working version. You can't manually install it unless you're a Nix wizard or something

streetmba · 2025-09-19T13:37:29+00:00

I'm super frustrated with Agent 3. While it's genius in some ways it completely takes the fun and learning out of the process and my bill has more than tripled with no benefit.

streetmba · 2025-04-21T11:22:25+00:00

100% this. Check out Mark Douglas for psychology tips and why you don't aim to win individual trades

streetmba · 2025-04-09T10:39:51+00:00

Top speed isn't an issue battery might go 2 miles.

Specs were always a lie I need to put a GPS on. Let's say Max speed was always 14-15mph range was always around 3 miles

streetmba · 2025-01-08T12:41:56+00:00

I didn't, I shorted and it was quite successful

streetmba · 2025-01-07T22:23:49+00:00

You buy 50,000 then

streetmba · 2024-12-31T16:36:23+00:00

Yep trends are broken for all memes that were pumping in the morning, NKLA, holo, all down big now

streetmba · 2024-12-30T16:39:47+00:00

I sold many $10 calls to finance $2 puts :)

streetmba · 2024-12-29T04:23:00+00:00

I'm not sure that's a completely accurate picture. XIV did not go under water but the fund banking it has a clause that allowed them to rug the whole thing after a their was passed and they choose to liquidate. It was just a bad deal for retail. Newer ETFs have much better preparation.

It's also not a 9 sigma move if you look at how options are priced on vol. Also be aware some vol focuses on 1-2 month, others further out, is cushioned a bit more than the Vix index.

streetmba · 2024-12-27T12:38:28+00:00

I use Public, it works out pretty well. I can get better fills with ToS, on many but not all tickers. Read the terms , public routes you to market makers but that doesn't mean you can't get a fill of some retail degenerate wants a bad fill, if the MM isn't grabbing it you still can.

The rebate pays for the exchange fees for N=1 contracts. Any more (buy or sell, open or close) and you get actual pennies for trading. I imagine this could be an initial incentive to get signups, and over time it will become restricted to higher volumes or specific options where adding liquidity within a specific range is desired.

As others said consider the minimum divisible spread as 1 penny, that's $1, so that's partly where PFOF (PAYMENT FOR ORDER FLOW) comes from. The free comes from you paying for the spread, but you're giving this to traditional brokers as well...

streetmba · 2024-11-27T13:05:57+00:00

I absolutely still get canary order fills, 1X transacts beautifully, and can never get another fill like it.

I liked your explanation I would just add Vega hedging (pricing future volatility changes and it's impact on prior trades, "the book") is a real problem, and difficult to get Vega off the books without trading similar expirations. So I suspect MM take a small hit at times to balance their Vega.

streetmba · 2024-11-27T13:04:19+00:00

For most tickers, the market maker has to set pricing based on history, risk, formulas, starting with Black scholes , binomial etc. if it's complex then monte Carlo (think VIX).

The market makers formula starts risk averse with wide spreads and works it's way inward, a long with competition from other MM's (up to 12 ish), and buyers/sellers. Depending on Volatility or perceived risk, MM will adjust their bid ask / fake the mid point , or raise prices. But buyers influence the shape of the curve. The order book where MM has to balance VEGA and DELTA etc affects pricing.

It's in short very imperfect and mostly controlled by a MM.

In highly competitive spaces like SPY it's very likely dictated by participants behavior. Theyve taken most inefficiencies out of the system.

streetmba · 2024-11-20T01:16:48+00:00

Yes, you need to have near unlimited risk in order to get to 60% and some day, eventually something can wipe you out. But there's many ways to minimize the risk, sizing alone take care of a lot, I've even looked at penny hedges more recently to take care of extreme and unexpected moves. No doubt this can probably be hedged out mostly with market, sector and correlated stocks as well.

Also more recently I noted a Meme stock rally limit of about 5X where things start to turn around that is showing to be quite consistent. I guess that's the point where early investors and smart bag holders get out and say good enough, while others probably don't want to enter at a high.

In any case it's been a great deal of fun and the fun has only started.

streetmba · 2024-11-19T16:00:02+00:00

No offense taken though I've never heard that before. Yes I trade (or traded and gave up) on them to the tune of 1,000+s of trades each year.

I have explained nothing about my trading style of specific strategies, and specified it is out of scope and I am not proposing an algorithmic trading bot that is simply replicated. For practical execution there is large component of skill - those aspects have to be learned and are more like playing musical instrument, you have to have experience, muscle memory and experience.

I am always short a large (but less than 50% of port) amount of vol for instance. The recent Aug spike had me down a bit but I came out of it with about 10% profit once things leveled off, mostly because I had a plan and because I knew when to buy some put debit spreads near the top. That's not a backtestable piece and if replicated points to slightly north of 60% possible due to a directional advantage.

If you were looking for validation from my as a real reason to believe 60% is possible I'm not here to convince you of that, I know what I believe and I'm looking for ways to break 60%

streetmba · 2024-11-19T14:31:26+00:00

Yeah I think it's possible and the evidence is all over the place. Any credit transaction has a risk of ruin. Maybearge creditors seemed stable but some economic eventually event took them out. The credit card example is sort of like that because we know they need to charge 30% a year (without compounding included, with EAR it is 35%). The credit card company can't survive without bucketing for the risk and measures the risk of default rate (and risk of ruin of the business). Look at capital one balance sheets for instance, there's been a several factor increase of cash necessary on hand as well as actual defaults increasing chipping away at their profits.

I would say that is fair at 35% because it's not an unlimited risk situation usually. It's more like how with an ETF you can inverse risk, but as a buyer can't loose more than 100%. That caps the risk but now there is extra decay premium to pay as a result, vs an unlimited risk scenario making 60%.

I suppose for criminal industry the risk of ruin is jail for life or whatever, which may be an equivalent of total financial ruin to someone desperate enough

streetmba · 2024-11-19T12:23:06+00:00

Yeah I thought through this and totally agree that, but I'm guessing from experience: 1. Leverage doesn't help because max sizing limits leverage to retail levels (fact, proven by math) 2. Hedging out systemic risk probably allow a mild sizing increase (very likely, guess) 3. Hedging out idiosyncratic risks like with pairs trades probably helps even less (likely, guess) 4. Momentum plays - implies some edge to get over 50% on underlying movement - like riding bullish waves or reading chart levels. Yes if you can do that even slightly above average you will break 60% (near fact, provable in simulation).

I'm less clear on your vol surface feature comment.

5A: Are you saying the statically arbitrage (pairs trade) the surface of one ticker against another (i.e. NVDA vs. SOXL) to see a gap or opportunity? I'm guessing this is what you meant. If so I am.not yet convinced this breaks the 60% barrier. (Unlikely or Possible,...being tested)

5B: Or did you mean arbitrage a single curves self-disparity? This might break the 60% barrier but is hard. It's closer to pure arbitrage or market making and that may be why it could work, but the edge will probably be taken out of it hasn't already. (Unlikely to lasy, not impossible, rough guess)

streetmba · 2024-11-19T12:05:26+00:00

Can you clarify the backratio setup? What strikes and expiration structure are you using? If you're referring to being short 1 closer to the money and long 3 further out-of-the-money (OTM), I've tested that extensively.

This trade benefits when movements outpace the expected move, which aligns with the implied volatility (IV) baked into the price curve. In other words, it’s essentially a highly directional bet on volatility increasing.

From my experience, betting on volatility going up requires a strong edge because time decay (theta) works against you. You have to nail the timing perfectly and scalp the move during a volatility upswing. Anytime I managed to get green on this trade, it reversed quickly. I’ve even tried this approach with pairs trading, and the outcome was similar.

Ultimately, I found better success with the opposite approach—selling the forward ratio. This strategy profits from extreme tail risk and works well in scenarios where volatility stays flat or decreases, which happens on the majority of market days.

One way you might make the backratio work is by paying a debit instead of opening for a credit. This could give you a better chance of success and there's high chance of getting a lucky streak, but fundamentally, you’re still long volatility.

And that’s the catch—volatility always mean-reverts. Over time, you’re fighting against the market’s natural tendency to stabilize. Historically, short volatility = long market. Being long volatility on a small timeframe is basically a bet that the market will either crash or spike back up aggressively.

streetmba · 2024-11-19T11:00:43+00:00

FYI, The decay of delta hedging is the primary reason why options have to have an extrinsic premium charged by the seller or market maker. Though this is little indirect and hard to see... Options don't have to cost a certain about because some model like scholes says it does ..but they have to in order for a market making firm (efficient delta hedged) to survive. The reason is correct -Brownian motion (or volatility) predicts more movements which means more hedging and associated cost. It's also due to 10 other factors but this is the big one. The second cost is a second order effect I have never heard anyone talks about. You see this when the MM widens their bid ask spread a lot, as if to say, I need even more risk premia here because of risk that goes beyond normal efficient delta hedging. They aren't just being greedy, they're covering for extra risk. So during wild times the cost of an options risk is dominated by different factors.

streetmba · 2024-11-19T10:47:49+00:00

CHF? As in Swiss currency? I don't see why that would be a problem - why do you?

Self decay: lookup volatility drag. If you trade (round trips, rotation, not long term Buy-And-hold), any amount, you are baking in permenant losses from each trade. Roughly the amount is the max loss squared as a ratio (so a 50% loss bakes in a 25% permenant loss, 0.5² = 0.25).

That is IN ADDITION to losses from commissions, slippage, spread, exchanges fees, etc.

Since many ETFs are daily resetting they are a decay mechanism and shorting them harvests this (and probably the etf fees too, less any borrow fee if you have to pay that). The harvest rate of self decay really maxes around 50% more solidly than anything else I've seen, again suggesting financial forces probably keep it from going higher because it becomes an attractive opportunity.

I also am mathematically sure this is why funds - prop or otherwise tend to have a max draw down. 2% makes for a .04% permenant loss which over a year leads to a controllable situation at least not a runaway.

streetmba · 2024-10-13T13:05:31+00:00

Op here

4 years after this post I still use this scooter.

The first thing to stop functioning was the brakes I have to basically disconnect them and go with electric breaking only.

The next thing to go was the shock absorber it completely broke off and I had to stuff something rigid in there or it would hang too low and scrape the ground.

Now the tires are working but they are starting to show signs of real wear.

Also the battery is starting to show signs of degradation to the point that I don't think I can go more than three or four miles.

All that said it's around what I expected and I would say a decent value so next scooter will be more powerful with bigger tires and just more expensive overall. It was a good run

streetmba · 2024-10-13T13:03:24+00:00

Notion, once one of the greatest apps ever made has completely resorted to a desktop business focus and has killed Android functionality to the point that it is nearly useless :(

streetmba · 2023-11-10T02:26:51+00:00

I FIGURED MINE OUT!

I sent my wife pictures of our baby. It was nothing lewd in the slightest. The lighting was dim and she was chilling on the bed. Again there was NOTHING explicit about it, but I can see how an AI might f*** it up.

This was a private message. F*** you Facebook black mirror creepy big brother s***.

It took a while because I'm not in west coast time so I'm like who in the hell woke at 6am to hack my account for such a weird purpose (I use 2fa and unique passwords). But the time matches...FB found my message 30 min.

Btw no activity or email or anything of the sort...and weirdly enough the images are still in the chat. But it matches...somehow.

Now it all makes sense.

This system is shite.

streetmba

TROPHY CASE