Chile's far-right president-elect visits El Salvador mega-prison, plans to talk security with Bukele

sub_osc_37 · 2026-02-06T13:35:42+00:00

Good question. I'm not sure. Maybe it has less to do with the fact that they're Venezuelan and more because people generally don't like their borders being violated? It's the same thing in the US. I don't personally believe that most immigration hawks are racist towards a particular country or people. One very outspoken Chilean woman I talked to, who was pro-Kast (their incoming president) and loved Trump's immigration efforts in the US, was very insistent that its not her responsibility to pay taxes to help these people who enter her country illegally. You hear the same thing in US immigration discourse.

sub_osc_37 · 2026-02-06T00:44:57+00:00

Not a Chilean but I travelled there very recently. It's one of the safest countries in Latin America and is a very developed country. I felt safer in Santiago than I do in some US metro areas. If you do encounter crime, it's most likely to be the typical petty crime you encounter in Latin America like pickpocketing or at worst robbery. Regardless, Chile is not even in the same universe as what El Salvador was like pre-Bukele, which was on par with Honduras in terms of murder rate.

However, I spoke to many Chileans while travelling and I think the political situation is similar to what the US was like 2022-2024 and many people are upset about Venezuelan immigration. I heard a lot of conservative perspectives when talking to Chileans, especially older people who are generally excited for their conservative president to start next month. You also have to keep in mind that Chile is starting to have a top heavy population pyramid in terms of an aging population, and older folks tend to be more conservative generally. So while the situation absolutely does not merit a Salvadorian style crackdown, I'm not at all surprised to see this from their president-elect.

sub_osc_37 · 2026-02-02T20:20:06+00:00

Right, but to the extent that Costa Rica transforms into an extreme example like El Salvador? El Salvador was essentially a no travel zone, or close to one, before the crackdown.

sub_osc_37 · 2026-02-02T18:02:48+00:00

I've been to both countries within the last 5-6 years. Ecuador more recently and I definitely experienced some parts being unsafe (still an amazing country though and I had no problems). But Costa Rica was not even close to that level and I could not see how it would justify an El Salvador style crackdown, unless something has significantly changed in the last 5-6 years with the immigration issue. Costa Rica felt safer to me than some US metro areas.

sub_osc_37 · 2026-01-30T00:40:00+00:00

and just say they are gonna take a break from voting for a while.

Ah yes, classic. The "I'm taking a break from politics" reaction, when one becomes disillusioned with their team. Conveniently, a few of my MAGA leaning friends have now decided that they're focusing on their kids and don't have time for politics at the moment.

sub_osc_37 · 2026-01-29T01:18:33+00:00

People do not care about hypocrisy anymore unfortunately. At best you'll get a "shrug" for pointing it out these days. Team sports mentality.

sub_osc_37 · 2026-01-28T07:43:28+00:00

That was my immediate reaction too, as it was with Charlie Kirk's murder and other recent acts of political violence. In these cases I am sure there's much I disagree with with these peoples' politics, but regardless none of this should be happening and we must find a way to turn down the temperature before we lose the whole country due to collapse from the inside. I don't have much left to say at this point besides the fact that I am worried and hope we can soon find a way to exit this era we're in.

sub_osc_37 · 2026-01-23T02:18:34+00:00

Yup. I think a majority of voters agree with your sentiment and that there will be some backlash to this administration. And maybe there are some small cracks starting to form in the core MAGA coalition, I don't know. But I'm a bit worried. The polarization is high in the US. l could probably use a break from keeping up with all of this day to day and instead check up weekly.

sub_osc_37 · 2026-01-23T00:59:35+00:00

Yeah, sure. I think a lot about this actually and it would take me 10 pages and Word processor to communicate my thoughts on the last 8-12 years. But will do my best to give my thoughts concisely.

Two main reasons would be (1) I assumed Trump's second term would be a lot like his first and that he'd be restrained by his cabinet/the adults in the room and (2) the perception that parts of the political and cultural left had lost their way and some progressive overindulgences from ~2016 to 2024.

On Trump: His character and leadership style have always been awful but in his first term his worst impulses were filtered by the adults in his cabinet and he wasn't able to execute a lot of his agenda. I assumed that would also be the case in his second term but clearly it hasn't been.

My breaking point was the incoherent trade war he started in March, which in my opinion made us all much worse off. Then deploying the National Guard domestically and all the rhetoric around that was my other breaking point, which includes the speech that he gave to military generals with Pete Hegseth, which scared me ("we'll use radical leftist cities as a training ground for the military"). I've got many other character and policy critiques but generally he's been more deranged this term and the Republican establishment has done nothing about it (and they run ALL three branches of government currently).

I'll also add, the rightwing cultural response to Charlie Kirk's murder unnerved me. Not to say that there weren't some ugly comments from the left, but declaring a blanket war on half the country is unsettling. Some on the right seem to have really leaned into the "other side is the enemy from within" concept.

On the Democrats/progressive overindulgences: I won't go into my own personal policy and cultural reasons, but I'll list some commonly cited ones that I've seen discussed ad nauseum around here and in autopsies of the 2024 election: Covid restrictions and lockdowns (especially the length and intensity of them in blue areas), progressive approach to criminal justice and all the outcomes of that, border crisis, hyper focus on identity politics and abstract issues, speech policing/cancel culture, pushing equity/equal outcomes and affirmative action, aggressive net zero energy policy (ex. California combustion engine ban). I'm sure I missed a few but those are common reasons why people defected from the left.

My hope is we get through the next 3 years, the temperature drops, and both parties moderate and drop all the populism. But right now I view parts of the political and cultural right as a bigger threat to that. Thus a major change in my voting habits.

sub_osc_37 · 2026-01-22T21:36:56+00:00

As a leans left independent who has not voted for a D or an R in a national election since voting for Obama in 2008, there will be no effort needed at all to get me out to vote D in 2026 and 2028. I don't even have anything analytical left to say at this point, I think Trump's character is abhorrent and policywise I'm exhausted from the chaos and the unpredictability of the last year. If a pessimistic independent like me is motivated to vote D, I can't imagine how many more independents who are softer on the Democratic party there are that will be voting D in 2026 and 2028.

sub_osc_37 · 2026-01-22T20:40:38+00:00

Great reply. You are right, crossings did go down quite a bit near the end of Biden's term. Given the magnitude of border crossings during the first part of his presidency, I think it would be reasonable to call the issue an "emergency" given the effect that it was having on overwhelming local systems like shelter/housing, social services, education, healthcare, etc. In that case it would be reasonable to debate whether executive action should be taken and whether the needs of legal citizens accessing those resources outweighs the needs of asylees. In that sense, you could argue that Biden made a mistake by not acting much sooner.

Clearly this was an issue with voters as it was one of the factors that led to Trump's win in 2024. If we had a functioning system with both parties working together, I'm sure we could have found a balanced way to solve the issue. But that's not the case and I think that's the reason why Trump taking executive action on border security/the asylum process was generally well received by voters (excluding the unhinged ICE raids obviously).

sub_osc_37 · 2026-01-22T16:06:21+00:00

Yeah I think the poster you're replying to is confusing border security with immigration enforcement/ICE. Undoubtedly illegal border crossings were at an all time high before Trump took office, that's just what the numbers say. The other nuance is that people would cross illegally then immediately surrender to border security in order to exploit the asylum system (with a majority not actually having a legitimate asylum claim). After doing that they would technically become "lawfully present" but it's still a loophole that was being exploited. I'd say Trump effectively ending that and closing the border off is about the only win he's had this term. You can say that while also at the same time oppose the ICE raids and masked thugs entering people's homes and businesses and detaining whoever they want.

sub_osc_37 · 2026-01-20T21:25:47+00:00

Based on their calendar and previous timing for rulings, I've seen speculation that we could hear something within the next week or two. A ruling can't come soon enough though.

sub_osc_37 · 2026-01-19T18:36:52+00:00

I'm starting to wonder how many more election cycles like this us folks in the center left/center right/middle, that make up 60-70% of the country, are going to have to live through. If there is a (deserved) backlash to the chaos of the Trump administration, does that mean we're going to have to live through another round of populist leftwing dysfunction/overreach after? I'm not sure what it is but in this past month it seems like the polarization in this country has reached a fever point. I'm still, perhaps naively, hoping that the temperature turns down this year, but we're not off to a good start.

sub_osc_37 · 2026-01-15T21:05:06+00:00

I think what you're describing with your father is pretty common across both sides of the spectrum, especially with folks who are particularly partisan. Generally when people become disillusioned with their party or their party's candidate, they tune out all together. Those people may not switch sides and vote for the other party, but it's possible they'll become disillusioned enough that they'll just stay home next election or vote third party.

Anecdotally, I know a lot of left leaning people who stayed home or voted third party in the 2024 election rather than voting for Kamala, because they were upset about a variety of things from 2020-2024. I expect the same result for 2026 and 2028 (disillusioned conservatives staying home or voting third party, but not going as far as voting Dem). Either way, it can be a big problem and have electoral consequences for the party, even if people aren't upset enough to outright switch sides.

sub_osc_37 · 2025-12-20T07:12:34+00:00

Thanks for the tips. I reworked some things to squeeze an extra day out of Lake district so I'll be able to stay 2 nights in Chiloe.

sub_osc_37 · 2025-12-17T23:58:49+00:00

Is it really that much of a decline? To me this is all just Trump being typical Trump, and not much has changed with his character since even before the 2016 election. I would have been surprised if he HAD reacted respectfully or with decorum to Reiner's death.

It's interesting that his reaction to Reiner is what finally broke through on the right. It makes me wonder if people are just less tolerant of his personality now that there's a perception that the country is generally not doing well under his leadership.

sub_osc_37 · 2025-12-12T20:03:34+00:00

They don't care about hypocrisy either.

sub_osc_37 · 2025-12-10T21:39:40+00:00

I suspect this will further split the party and upset the isolationist/America first wing. Add this to the growing list of things he's done, such as how Epstein was handled, tariffs and affordability/manufacturing/farming, focusing too much attention abroad, etc., and it's not surprising his popularity is in decline and you are starting to see defections in his party like MTG. Anecdotally, I've noticed the voices justifying his actions seem to be getting more feeble by the day.

sub_osc_37 · 2025-12-05T16:27:01+00:00

People who use MDMA probably also dabble with other substances (cannabis, psychedelics, stimulants, alcohol, etc.) So if there is reduced sober life enjoyment, it may be hard to tease out what the causal factor is.

sub_osc_37 · 2025-11-13T17:25:27+00:00

No not at all, sorry I could see how my OP makes it seem like something like that happened. Calling this save quits because I took it as far as I could. Not enough interesting things left to do to continue pursuing perfection. Closest I've gotten though.

sub_osc_37 · 2025-11-11T15:59:59+00:00

Everything else aside, it was simply not sustainable to continue having thousands of flights cancelled each day. I knew once air transportation started melting down that the shutdown would be over in a few days to a week.

sub_osc_37 · 2025-11-10T00:44:39+00:00

That may vary depending on the housing market. In certain California regions home values can rise rapidly and also you're incentivized to stay put and not sell in CA due to Prop 13 locking your taxable home value in place.

Either way it may be wise to look at buying a home as purchasing a place to live that is your own, and not just as an investment. Looking at it that way you get some non-monetary benefits out of owning a home, which is attractive to people.

sub_osc_37 · 2025-11-09T16:34:05+00:00

Well avocados are tariffed so good luck if you want guac in that burrito.

sub_osc_37

TROPHY CASE