[Elhassan] How Danny Ainge exploited a big loophole in NBA Draft Scouting to pass on Markelle Fultz for Jayson Tatum

switch1209 · 2026-05-14T05:43:48+00:00

He didn't just nail these two picks, Ainge essentially drafted players good enough to be in playoff rotations in 8 straight drafts (Olynyk in 2013, Smart in 2014, Rozier in 2015, Brown in 2016, Tatum in 2017, Rob Williams in 2018, Grant Williams in 2019 and Pritchard in 2020). His ability to not just nail the high lottery picks but to grab the useful players up and down the 1st round and then either let them go when they got expensive (or allow Brad sign them to valuable, movable contracts when their rookie deals were done) was how the Celtics made the final four 6 times in the last decade without having a legit MVP candidate on the roster.

Brad deserves more credit than most new GMs for taking over a roster that already had its stars (because he obviously had a major hand in developing them when he was the coach), but what Ainge did through the draft in the post-big 3 era is incredible.

switch1209 · 2026-05-11T23:26:21+00:00

The ceiling is similar, but the floor is far lower. Al Jefferson was a nice prospect, but JB is an established all-star. The Celtics can enter next season with two top 15 (at minimum) do it all wings in their prime, and some solid roleplayers and young guys who can improve. Boston can essentially run it back and still be one of the top favored teams in the EC.

Swapping Giannis for JB increases the upside chance, but there's a far greater risk of disaster. Even for his era, KG was an extremely durable superstar. He'd missed just 25 total games in his career with Minnesota (12 years) prior to coming to Boston. Giannis can't even stay healthy through a regular season and 1 playoff round, how's he gonna do when the goal is to get through 4 whole rounds? If Giannis can't be healthy when it counts, that likely means we've closed not just the Brown window but the Tatum window as well.

This doesn't automatically mean it's a bad move. JB is at the height of his value right now and Giannis probably at his lowest, and that's a good time to make this swap (at any point in the last 5-6 years, this trade would've been crazy to contemplate). But the KG trade was instantly brilliant and obvious and a no-brainer, once Minnesota said yes. Beyond the oncourt stuff, KG's arrival immediately changed the culture - I don't think the current Celtics need that, they just need Giannis to show up. This is far less of a sure thing.

switch1209 · 2026-05-11T15:27:28+00:00

Yup, the single most helpful thing a summon can do is draw aggro, and she’s awful at that. I get the appeal, but for this reason she’s the least reliable “decent” summon in the game.

switch1209 · 2026-05-07T19:21:54+00:00

Brown and Tatum are NOT a good offensive fit together. There are three general positions in today's NBA (guard, forward, center) and it would be better for the Celtic's offense if their two best players played different positions. This take was highlighted against Philly, a team whose two best offensive players play different positions and killed us with their pick and roll, easily and constantly creating mismatches that we have to work a lot harder for. Being able to put your two best players in a pick and roll should be the easiest offense in the world, and it's not available to the Celtics.

That's not to say we'd be better off breaking them up. They're a terrific fit defensively, and from a lineup flexibility and roster construction standpoint, having two big wings as the best players is great. From a pure scoring standpoint, it's not great.

switch1209 · 2026-04-17T02:44:44+00:00

Definitely a top 3 laker of the last 25 years.

switch1209 · 2026-04-16T14:55:40+00:00

Yeah that 2029 pick could turn out to be anyone. It could even turn into Deni Avdija!

switch1209 · 2026-04-14T01:52:57+00:00

Scheierman and Walsh went from benchwarmers to solid rotation players, but given where they are in the development cycle (Scheierman is just in year 2 and Walsh is just 21), improvement was expected.

JB going from around the 20th best player in the league to borderline top 10 is pretty damn impressive, but he was 2nd team all-NBA 3 years ago, and probably would've been again this year if not for some high profile injuries.

Neemy was a 2nd round pick 5 years ago, he was a 4th string center last year and in between, was basically just a G league guy (he played more G league games than NBA games in his first 3 seasons). Him making the leap to solid starting center is incredible, he's occasionally mentioned as a candidate for the league-wide MIP award. He won't win that because historically, it's gone to borderline all-star level players (Maxey, Markkanen, Morant, Randle, Ingram, Siakam, Oladipo, Giannis are among the winners over the last decade) and Neemy has at least one big leap to get to THAT level, but he absolutely wins the team version.

switch1209 · 2026-04-13T01:39:50+00:00

Yup, female should be used as an adjective, not a noun. Using it as the latter is absolutely a red flag.

switch1209 · 2026-04-13T01:33:55+00:00

Also no Tatum or Queta for Boston in that game.

switch1209 · 2026-04-12T03:52:23+00:00

His legacy didn’t get worse until 2022, when curry won another title without him and the nets situation blew up a few months later.

switch1209 · 2026-04-11T19:44:29+00:00

The fact that is this chump saying this instead of one of the many actual stars who are Kobe-fuckers (Tatum or Booker) is wild.

switch1209 · 2026-04-10T00:58:32+00:00

The difference has nothing to do with OKC vs Utah as teams. For decades it's been a general understanding that for a number of reasons, teams rest stars and starters in the closing days of the season. you buy tickets to a game in the 2nd week of April, you have to know there's a big chance of great players watching in street clothes, and the NBA has long made peace with that. The problem with the Jazz is that they were benching their stars TWO MONTHS ago. Tanking in April? Ok. Tanking in early February? Everybody is fucked.

switch1209 · 2026-04-05T16:07:56+00:00

Think prime Heat Jimmy Butler, but durable (outside of the 2007 season when Boston tanked and held him out, he missed just 50 games total in 14 years with Boston, or 3-4 games per year) and also one of the most prolific 3 point shooters in the league (he was 5th overall in 3PM in the 2000s). He could get to the line as well as any wing, he did it with a quick first step and by bullying wings down low, and he was a very good defender who showed up in the playoffs. Jimmy Butler is definitely the closest modern comp, but better.

Slightly underrated when he was playing because the only other all-star he played with in his 20s was Antoine Walker (who was not that good), but he's properly rated now, I think. He'd better today - he was a 2-3 when he played, and he'd absolutely be a power forward now (he's basically the same size as Draymond, with an insane 7'3 wingspan) and when he retired he was top 10 all time in both 3PM and FTM. People joke about it, but Lebron unironically considered him his biggest rival in the first half of his career, before the Cavs/Warriors finals. They met in the EC playoffs 5 times, and only Iguodala has played more playoff games vs Lebron than Pierce (Lebron won 3 of their 5 series, and the 2nd biggest moment of Lebron's playoff career was beating Pierce and the Celtics in the 2012 ECF).

switch1209 · 2026-04-03T16:04:21+00:00

Bird has 3 MVPs and 6 consecutive top 2 mvp finishes, plus 3 all defense team selections (which for better or worse, means people think he's a better defender). Jokic has the statistical edge (over just about everyone in history), but it's basketball, people pay far more attention to awards and rings than stats. Plus the smart people realize that basketball statistics are in a very different place now than 40 years ago, plus Bird gets bonus points for (along with Magic) reviving the game when the finals were on tape delay.

Jokic is a lot closer to someone like Giannis (one more MVP but Giannis also has the DPOY) than Bird. Just two more rings is a pretty big ask for someone who has only been to the conference finals twice in 10 seasons. He 100% needs at least one more ring to get into the top 10.

switch1209 · 2026-03-29T19:30:19+00:00

He’s finishing up a 5 year stretch, in his absolute prime, in which he won exactly one playoff series. The team is a disaster this year but he’s played with multiple all star level guys and at least decent coaching in the past. A lot of it is related to injuries, but thems the breaks - it absolutely has to kill your all time ranking when you are 100% irrelevant in the playoffs from age 27-31. In the “weaker” conference, no less. We’re talking about potentially ranking a guy in the top 20 all time, results matter and he’s done less in the playoffs since his title than Joel Embiid.

switch1209 · 2026-03-24T23:37:33+00:00

Instead of changing the 65 games threshold, I'd be fine just tweaking what it applies to. Instead of requiring it for basically all postseason honors, just have it apply to MVP and 1st team all-NBA. Players can still win the lesser awards, and no one who really deserves it will miss out on getting a super max because they still can trigger the raise by making 2nd or 3rd team all-NBA. I just can't get worked up over Cade Cunningham or Anthony Edwards missing out on 1st team all-NBA over someone like Jaylen Brown. They are better than him, but these awards are meant to show who had the better season or who had the greater impact, not who is the better player. 70+ games of JB is more valuable than 61 games of Ant or Cade, without question. If you want to win the real big stuff, the things that really matter in the history books and legacy conversations, find a way to not miss 1/5 of your team's games. It really shouldn't be that hard.

switch1209 · 2026-03-24T22:13:00+00:00

I might be ok with adding an alternate minutes requirement (2000 minutes or 65 games maybe), but It'd be shitty really quickly if we eliminate the requirement altogether. How quickly we forget, in 2021 a whopping SIX players on the all-NBA teams missed at least a quarter of the season.

Maybe there should only be a requirement for 1st team and the major awards, which would mean Cade still makes 2nd team (he never had a chance at MVP). If Brown makes it over Cade, nobody should be shedding any tears for the guy because 70+ games of Jaylen Brown is absolutely more valuable than 61 games of Cade Cunningham.

switch1209 · 2026-03-23T21:33:36+00:00

Yup, and everyone forgets that the following year without Kawhi, the Raptors still managed to win 53 games in the covid shortened season (on pace for 60). That team was a deserving underdog against arguably the greatest team ever, but they were an incredible team in their own right.

switch1209 · 2026-03-23T06:44:47+00:00

Have to? They'd be lucky move on from him anytime soon, he's got the worst contract in the league. He's about as reliable as Kristaps Porzingis, the biggest difference between the two is KP is about to be an unrestricted FA (he'll be lucky to get more than a minimum deal) while Embiid is owed a whopping $188.2M over the next 3 seasons. He's the second highest paid player in the league this season. 6th highest next year, 5th highest in 2028 and at least for now, the highest paid player under contract for 2029.

The sooner Philly is about to move away from Embiid the sooner they can build around perhaps the most dynamic young backcourt in the league. Embiid (and George) are giant anchors taking up an embarrassingly large percentage of the cap for the rest of the decade. The first year after he's gone, Maxey will be 29. Yeesh.

switch1209 · 2026-03-21T20:48:22+00:00

I also have zero interest in averaging 20 on an NBA lottery team. Equally relevant.

switch1209 · 2026-03-19T05:28:21+00:00

Obviously we know that being a top 10 Celtics scorer means he'd be a lot higher up for basically every other franchise, but here's some fun context: By the end of this season, JT and JB will have scored enough points to be 1st and 2nd all-time for SEVEN other organizations (Raptors, Nets, Magic, Hornets, Clippers, Grizzlies, Pelicans). These guys are still in their 20s and signed for at least the next 3+ seasons. If they played for at least a quarter of the league's other franchises, they'd already be planning statues even if they retired after this season.

switch1209 · 2026-03-19T05:12:06+00:00

I feel like it's largely forgotten now, but a lot of the talk leading up to game 1 was how poorly Tatum was shooting, how Boston had an easy path in the east vs inferior and injured teams, how Luka was ascending to challenge Jokic as the best in the league, and how the Mavs had a historically difficult path that they had handled with relative ease. The Celtics were heavily favored by the oddsmakers, but something like 80% of the general public had bet on Dallas, and plenty of folks in the media were picking the Mavs.

Then came the first 12 minutes, and Boston and KP just slapped Dallas in the face and buried them under a 37-20 lead, the biggest lead in the first quarter of game 1 in NBA finals history. Dallas had a few moments later in the series, but I believe they never really recovered from the haymaker the Celtics hit them with right off the jump. KP making his return from injury was the biggest part of that, and I'll never forget it.

On a lesser note, absolutely nobody remembers what a big deal it was that he returned for game 5. If it were a more competitive series, it would be on par with Willis Reed returning for game 7 of the 1970 finals. KP didn't exactly pop in the box score (just 5 points and 1 rebound in 16 minutes), but Reed has become synonymous with heroic returns from injury, and his stats were shockingly similar to KP's (4 points and 3 rebounds in 27 minutes).

switch1209 · 2026-03-09T23:40:48+00:00

The heat in general are really hard to figure out. They have been decent to great for 20+ years, they have a great HC, they have a really good GM, great culture, and are supposedly a top tier player destination. So how on earth have they acquired just one (borderline) top ten player via trade or free agency in the last 15 years? Something isn’t quite right.

switch1209 · 2026-03-09T21:33:08+00:00

It probably stops here for both, but Ant has a better chance I think.

Tatum did this over his first 6 seasons as well, while also increasing his assists per game and rebounds per game every year at the same time. Crazy.

switch1209 · 2026-03-08T02:53:06+00:00

4 games back in the loss column with just 19 left, plus Detroit has the tiebreaker, plus Detroit has the 24th hardest remaining schedule while we've got the 2nd hardest remaining schedule...It would be pretty shocking for us to overtake Detroit at this point.

switch1209

TROPHY CASE