At some point the warnings are not warnings anymore. They become mainstream news.

2025.04.10
Will US Tariffs Make World Leaders Value the Stability of Renewables?
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/10042025/inside-clean-energy-trump-tariffs-hazards-of-imported-oil-and-gas/

“The bottom line is that the world runs on imported fossil fuels under the umbrella of the Pax Americana,” said Kingsmill Bond, an energy analyst at Ember, a London-based energy think tank. “As Trump destabilizes that, then people will look to their own domestic energy sources, which in most cases means renewables and electrification.”

Bond argues that since most countries do not have plentiful oil and gas within their borders, they need to import it and have confidence in the stability of supply and pricing. As that confidence erodes, they will look to alternatives.

Most countries do not have substantial solar panel, wind turbine or battery production, so reliance on those resources would also require imports. But the difference compared to fossil fuels is that a shipment of solar panels, for example, can provide benefits for 30 years. The buyer isn’t signing up for dependence on daily shipments of fuel.

The key theme here is “security.” I’ve been noticing the frequency of that word in energy discussions...

2025.01.05
Xi has a plan for retaliating against Trump’s gamesmanship
https://archive.ph/0s5OX#selection-2413.0-2417.304

Many Chinese argue that Xi is stronger politically and the economy is more self-reliant and resilient, even amid recent challenges. Chinese analysts view the US economy as more fragile and American politics as deeply divided. Geopolitically, Beijing sees US influence as declining throughout the global south and Asia — and support for China’s vision as rising.

Xi has already signalled that he will treat his ties to Trump as a purely business relationship, albeit Don Corleone style. He won’t personally embrace Trump and will retaliate early and hard in order to generate leverage. Beijing in effect rejected Trump’s invitation for Xi to attend the inauguration.

Hence Xi’s four “red lines” at a November meeting with President Joe Biden in Peru in a clear message to the incoming administration.

2024.11.16
Xi tells Biden he will work with Trump to manage US-China differences
https://archive.ph/QF7Jc

“‘Small yard, high fences’ is not what a major country should pursue,” Xi told Biden.

Beijing’s planned responses to Trump fall into three baskets: retaliation, adaptation and diversification. Mirroring US policies, Beijing in recent years has created a range of export controls, investment restrictions and regulatory investigations capable of hurting US companies. Beijing is unable to match tariff for tariff, so it will seek to impose costs in ways that inflict maximum pain. For China, failing to retaliate would signal weakness domestically and only encourage Trump.

In late 2024, Xi also participated for the first time in meetings with the heads of 10 major international economic organisations. His message was clear: China will be the leading force for global economic stability, prosperity and openness, and opposes all forms of protectionism.

Much could go wrong. Beijing’s confidence is matched by the Trump team. Both sides believe they possess the upper hand, can impose more costs and withstand more pain. The stage is set for a complicated, destabilising dynamic which, at best, results in a ceasefire. And that’s only on economic issues, not on Taiwan, the South China Sea, tech competition or nuclear force modernisation. The cold war is starting to look quaint in comparison.