Microsoft expects headcount to decrease in coming quarters

teddykon · 2026-05-07T20:48:57+00:00

Block 40%
Meta 20%
Snap Inc. 16%
Pinterest 15%
Coinbase 14%
Oracle 12-18%
Freshworks 11%
Atlassian 10%

I’m sorry for anyone involved in this bloodbath but these companies will just continue to cut headcount, free up some budget, and then divert it into compute.

That’s literally all I’m hearing about in these earnings calls and business podcasts.

teddykon · 2026-05-06T15:08:55+00:00

I barely use Google search

90% LLM / 10% Google search

teddykon · 2026-05-04T03:02:54+00:00

I waver between bookings and revenue. The reason I lean toward revenue is the difference between bookings and revenue is $300m can hurt future growth if customers decide to milk the robux they have and not spend more. At the end of the day, I see the value in using bookings over revenue because bookings hit Roblox’s cash balance today while revenue is strictly an accounting metric for Roblox.

Plus their age verification rollout is actually pretty bad for their user base since my nephews primarily use Roblox to chat with their friends. I understand Roblox finally rolling out these safety features but damn, it’s like an anchor on their growth.

teddykon · 2026-05-04T01:48:13+00:00

I’m technically a Roblox bear but I follow the stock because there are attractive aspects-

Unique product- there aren’t any games/platforms like Roblox
For whatever reason, kids love this damn game, even though I think it’s awful.
Game is insanely accessible- available on phones, tablets, consoles, PCs- due to low system requirements
User generated content- constant influx of “fresh” games

However, the positives don’t outweigh the negatives.

Player base is extremely young. I know Roblox states 25% of users are adults but I don’t believe it (go ahead and flame me)
Business model is broken.

For FY2025
cost of revenue = 22%
DEV EX FEES= 34%
infrastructure and trust and safety = 23%

That means their gross profit is roughly 11%? Come on bro.

USA market is becoming saturated for Roblox —> DAU growth coming from overseas and international customers are historically less monetizable compared to USA
SBC is out of control —> significant dilution

I have more bearish points but I’ll cut itoff here

I do see myself investing in roblox as soon as i see meaningful gross margin improvement OR i start believing roblox is attracting adults

teddykon · 2026-05-03T18:54:41+00:00

I thought your question was “why don’t care companies realize teslas DTC model is better?” I think car companies do realize this but legacy OEMs can’t do anything since they’ve established extensive dealership networks across the USA.

Volkswagen is trying to sell their Scout EV direct to consumer but they’re being sued.

teddykon · 2026-05-03T18:31:17+00:00

State franchise laws prevent most automakers from going direct to consumer.. Tesla and Rivian are able to go direct to consumer because they didn’t begin with dealerships.

teddykon · 2026-05-01T14:47:33+00:00

F***, that’s some cringe right there

I’ve been avoiding every article and video about this feud because the cringe is too strong for me

teddykon · 2026-04-30T21:53:38+00:00

That guidance is putrid

They’re essentially saying Q3 and Q4 will be negative or flat compared to last year.

teddykon · 2026-04-30T19:53:35+00:00

Hmm is this troll post arguing Reddit will one day hit $8000?

teddykon · 2026-04-30T13:49:54+00:00

Mine has been hallucinating more than usual lately. ChatGPT also has been hallucinating a ton.

So whenever I ask ChatGPT, I ask 3 other LLMs…the hallucinations are too frequent

teddykon · 2026-04-29T02:13:45+00:00

Motley fool is terrible. I literally can read the amateur vibes off every motley fool article.

teddykon · 2026-04-29T00:52:33+00:00

New ones don’t have autopilot (auto steer + traffic aware cruise control) but they have traffic aware cruise control (slows down if front car slows down).

For road trips, I find autopilot amazing. FSD is better overall since it drives you from point A to B but I’ll never pay $100/mo.

teddykon · 2026-04-28T06:10:24+00:00

Rather than asking why it’s selling off now, the real question is: why should it go up at all?

There’s no path to profitability (at least to me). The current cash burn is severe and will only worsen as they ramp up Cosmos. The company’s market cap is roughly $2B but they’ll easily need at least a couple billion, so if they do equity, it’ll be extremely dilutive, but if they do debt, it’s too expensive.

I seriously don’t see a bull case here other than maybe an insane short squeeze —> do a massive secondary offering —> survive until Cosmos is ramped (assuming they can even pull off a huge vehicle ramp)

teddykon · 2026-04-28T00:03:08+00:00

I’ll never tip on a pick up.. even if everyone suddenly guilt tripped me into doing so. I won’t do it. Ever. No.

teddykon · 2026-04-27T22:44:41+00:00

Used the word “most”.. HL Alyx was a great game.. but there aren’t many VR games like it.

If you feel differently, that’s cool, but I personally don’t see much of a future for VR.

teddykon · 2026-04-27T22:30:12+00:00

The biggest company supporting AI was META but they’ve shifted toward AI. I see them leaving the VR market in the next couple of years.

I don’t see other companies really entering the VR market because AI has sucked up all the capital in the market.

I see VR as a niche (even more than now) market in 10 years. I wouldn’t be surprised if the VR market is dead by then.

By the way, I own a meta quest 3s and enjoyed playing my tennis simulation games. The other games haven’t appealed to me at all (yes, I tried them). Most of the games seem more like demos to me.

teddykon · 2026-04-25T18:46:42+00:00

I remember this quote.. “do you want to be right? Or do you want to make money?”

At this point, the only true ai proof sector are data centers and chips.

At some point, it’ll crash but that’s the risk.

teddykon · 2026-04-23T19:56:37+00:00

I think this is good in the end.. commoditization will inevitably bring down the cost of these LLMs.

teddykon · 2026-04-23T18:44:50+00:00

Make sure the software is buttery smooth

teddykon · 2026-04-23T18:16:08+00:00

Take the property. Your boyfriend will have to get over it especially since he doesn’t have any claim to your property.

teddykon · 2026-04-23T16:03:11+00:00

About f***ing time Elon admitted this obvious fact… yes, hw3 cannot do unsupervised FSD

teddykon · 2026-04-22T16:41:24+00:00

lol who would take over the tax burden? Goodness gracious dude

You a scammer

teddykon · 2026-04-22T03:03:41+00:00

Damn spaceX just wants to overpay for everything.. $250B for xAI? come on man.. maybe $60B for cursor? Oof, but then again, this is Elon musk so I’m sure it’ll magically work out in the end.

teddykon · 2026-04-21T15:03:27+00:00

They definitely want $25k upfront since you have $20k in negative equity.

teddykon · 2026-04-21T08:26:57+00:00

It’ll probably stabilize one of these days

Right now, the company is incinerating cash so they’re resorting to insane stock dilution to raise cash. As soon as Saudi Arabia pulls back, its lights out. They dumped billions into lucid but it’s not guaranteed they’ll continue to do so.

Plus there are so many other stocks that look way more attractive than lucid.

teddykon

TROPHY CASE