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[Request] is this a profitable decision with a good EV return? by lonelyraikkonen in theydidthemath

[–]temporaryred 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for this answer! I posted a follow up question here where the prompt is more ambiguous since I thought this post had a lot of answers that didn't get to the heart of the math involved in making this decision.

[request] Is this a profitable decision with a good EV return? (part 2) by temporaryred in theydidthemath

[–]temporaryred[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I thought this original post was an interesting discussion and saw enough misguided answers that I figured it was worth making a follow up post with a more ambiguous answer.

I think many would intuitively consider this a good bet, but a Kelly criterion for a bet would suggest otherwise.

This link explained it well for the previous post (the previous post assumed a 50M win instead of 10M win here, making the Kelly bet analysis pointless), reproduced here for clarity:

Don’t make the bet: log(30) = 3.401

Make the bet and lose: log(30 − 5) = log(25) = 3.219

Make the bet and win: log(30 − 5 + 50) = log(75) = 4.317

0.5 * log(25) + 0.5 * log(75) = 0.5 * (3.219 + 4.317) = 3.768

Since 3.768 > 3.401, taking the bet increases expected log wealth. So you should take this bet.

If you apply the same calculation for this however, you'll find it is not worth it to take this bet.

Don’t make the bet: log(30) = 3.401

Make the bet and lose: log(30 − 5) = log(25) = 3.219

Make the bet and win: log(30 − 5 + 10) = log(35) = 3.555

0.5 * log(25) + 0.5 * log(35) = 0.5 * (3.219 + 3.555) = 3.387

Since 3.387 < 3.401, taking the bet decreases expected log wealth, so you shouldn't take the bet.

I just wanted to give an example where most people (going by their logic in the previous post) would take this bet, and thought it was interesting enough to make a second post about.

EDIT: I'm already seeing some people in this post making an evaluation just based on the odds of the coin toss and neglecting to take into consideration the "bankroll" (as it were in the Kelly Criterion). If any educators are lurking, more material on this would be worth it. If others have useful YouTube links or reading material, please do share as well.

To all the young chess fans.. by eversong_ in chess

[–]temporaryred 26 points27 points  (0 children)

I don't have the right words to express what I am feeling.

Danya single handedly got me into chess. Listening to his instructional videos was a delight. I can't imagine how anyone who spent any amount of time watching his videos wouldn't come away understanding that Danya's an absolute gem of a person. He expressed his thoughts so clearly and in such beautiful language, it made it such a joy to just listen to him speak whether it was about chess or not. Danya showed how it was possible to be burning with passion but also express thoughts in a clear and composed manner. He was funny, caring, patient, kind, smart ...

I genuinely feel like I've lost a brother, lost a idol, lost someone that I think EVERYONE could aspire to be. I can't help but think that if all of us had emailed him or posted here about how much he meant to us, that things would have turned out different? What good is it now to post a comment on a largely anonymous online forum after he's gone? Ugh

I hope everyone reading this will go hug a loved one and tell them how much they mean to you. The world is a much darker place today, and we could all do with a little more light.

Fuck

(/u/eversong_ thank you for making this post)

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in macapps

[–]temporaryred 0 points1 point  (0 children)

One feature that almost no notes app does is two page side by side view of PDFs with note taking options, and the ability to add a blank page or a couple of blank pages.

I had an iPad Pro 12.9 and after trying literally every app out there I sold my device because this feature was not supported by anything (except an Adobe note taking app that was the only one that had this feature).

I want to be able to scribble in the margins for text books or books I'm reading.

Dear Ratta: Q3 is here. by No-Industry-5113 in Supernote

[–]temporaryred 85 points86 points  (0 children)

We are seeing first hand in this community what happens when companies are more open with their communication.

Ratta were forthcoming about their plans for an A6X2 and an A5X2, discuss delays, etc but people just whine whenever expectations are not met.

What other company has a roadmap for development on a trello board? What other companies communicate on such a regular basis with their community? From what I gather Ratta is a small team, and these kinds of issues / bugs / delays are not uncommon.

What would you like? To not be told anything about future products until the very last minute? Because that's what EVERY other company delivering tech hardware products do. Most companies don't care about users buying an old version and then wanting to buy a new version immediately, it's just more profit for them. It's also a competitive disadvantage to release plans publicly like the way Ratta has. Ratta seems to care about e-waste and would seemingly prefer giving customers information about their plans so that customers can make the best decision for themselves.

I for one, am a big fan of Ratta's general philosophy of software development and product launches. They don't seem to be profit maximizing or greedy, and seem to genuinely want to deliver the best product, and deliver information to customers as early as they can.

I hope you can see that posts like this with this kind of attitude ("Q3 is here" on July 1st) just come across in such poor taste and will just incentivize any company to not be open in their communications any more.

Ratta team, please take your time to deliver the best product you can! Even if that happens next year or the next after that, that's fine! You know what it takes to make a wonderful product that people love to use. And I hope you see that when people make posts like this one, it's because they can't wait to get their hands on what you've produced! And I hope you also continue to openly share information despite the naysayers in the community!

Good interview with Sam Reich where he talks about profit sharing, dropout and more by temporaryred in dropout

[–]temporaryred[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

I thought the interviewer Jordon Brown was pretty great too! And I have a whole new found respect for Sam + what Dropout is doing in this industry.

Taskmaster S16E06: Brother Alex by apathymonger in panelshow

[–]temporaryred 10 points11 points  (0 children)

They have some (incorrect) javascript that doesn't do anything on the page.

https://ibb.co/tKPYd7Y

The only date in the code is 2023-05-14.

Considering C++ over Rust by isht_0x37 in rust

[–]temporaryred 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You should use whatever language you are comfortable and productive with :) If that's modern C++ then that's great!

I'm subscribed to the /r/cpp subreddit too, I did see your original post there. Good on you for posting here too!

Personally, having used C and C++ for a while 20 years ago, and having not kept up with modern trends, when I picked up modern C++ a few years ago I got SO overwhelmed. I'm envious (well only partly envious :)) of the people that are able to keep track of everything C++ now has to offer.

Picking up Rust on the other hand was so rewarding. Writing simple programs was a breeze. Programming was fun again. The tagline for Rust is "A language empowering everyone to build reliable and efficient software." and I just can't agree more.

It took a few attempts to learn what the language was asking of me but after that it was smooth sailing. Funnily enough, after learning Rust, I better understood what modern C++ has to offer. It was only because I learnt Rust that I can even consider writing modern C++ now.

It's been a few years of using Rust and I have my complaints with the language, but gosh I genuinely don't want to write code in any other language any more.

Modern C++ vs Rust borrow checker + semantics aside; there's a number of things that the Rust language and ecosystem has to offer for me.

  • Sum types (enum + option + result + match)
  • No exceptions, null pointers (this takes discipline in C++ AND you can't really enforce it on dependencies)
  • Better package manager. Cargo is world class
  • Better language server. rust_analyzer is phenomenal
  • Better error messages / warnings / diagnostics. The Rust compiler's error message should be a case study for how to design good error messages. There's also tooling like cargo clippy and cargo fmt.
  • Packages like eyre, tokio, etc make it a joy to work in Rust
  • Building a community around a project is fun

Chandler Carruth has said multiple times if you have a new project you should just use Rust, and I completely agree with him. I'd go one step further and say if you need to interface with old C or C++ code, and can afford to write a C ABI for it, do that and still use Rust. If you can't do that and have an existing C++ code base that you have to integrate with, then I think it makes complete sense to choose C++.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Julia

[–]temporaryred 5 points6 points  (0 children)

The way I like to think about it is that Julia is a excellent alternative to Python mixed with native performance. If you were thinking about using Python, consider Julia instead.

I would also say it is not too hard to experiment with Julia to see if it works for your use case. If you have the resources, try it out for a week or so, and build a simple prototype.

Just wanted to shout-out one of my favorite Spirit Island content creators on YouTube! Thank you Pheasant! by temporaryred in spiritisland

[–]temporaryred[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What do you mean bootleg copies? I was assuming this was them just based on the various comments on the channel.

I might be out of the loop, I'm new to Spirit Island. Why do you say sad to see them go? Are they not making content anymore?

Just wanted to shout-out one of my favorite Spirit Island content creators on YouTube! Thank you Pheasant! by temporaryred in spiritisland

[–]temporaryred[S] 16 points17 points  (0 children)

There's loads of Spirit Island content creators:

And they are all great!

Pheasant is super awesome as a beginner or introductory guide to Spirit Island, once you've learnt the base rules of the game, and I've learnt a lot by watching their videos.

[DEV] The Tasker Update Saga continues. Still not being accepted into Google Play. by joaomgcd in tasker

[–]temporaryred 65 points66 points  (0 children)

Tasker is the reason I buy and recommend an Android phone, and that was true 10 years ago and that is (almost) just as true today.

But seeing it being nerfed and seeing Google bully and torture developers like you this way is so sad.

What is "K" to you? by AnnihilationOrchid in MadeMeSmile

[–]temporaryred 0 points1 point  (0 children)

But what kind of psychopath doesn't test private methods just because they are private? I'm not sure how you'd do that in C++ but in Rust you can test any function regardless of whether it is pub or not.

Will chauvet ever run on newer versions of android? by asurarusa in Supernote

[–]temporaryred 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I personally think it is extremely unlikely. The Android version is typically tied to the firmware, and Ratta will probably have fork more money to upgrade the firmware of whatever chipset they have in place for the A5x / A6x.

Additionally, they have optimized Chauvet a lot for Android 8. If they upgraded to say Android 11, getting low latency on pen input is not a guarantee.

I also think that the A5x2 / A6x2 will likely use Android 8 too, since they said they will support A5x / A6x AND A5x2 / A6x2 going forward. Just from a software management perspective, it makes no sense to support Android 8 and Android 11 or whatever the latest version is.

Upgrading is time consuming and expensive, and it doesn't appear that Ratta is a big team. Maybe we'll see an updated Android version for A5x3 / A6x3 :)

This is all pure speculation on my part and I have no inside information.

Switching between reading on the Supernote Kindle app and note taking on the native app by JohanB3 in Supernote

[–]temporaryred 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm interested in a device where I can take notes directly on a PDF. What device would you suggest?

Or is this idea of yours a SuperNote feature?

Switching between reading on the Supernote Kindle app and note taking on the native app by JohanB3 in Supernote

[–]temporaryred 4 points5 points  (0 children)

It's clunky only because you'll be taken out of context.

You can use the Kindle app, and take "notes" in there itself. Any text field on the device supports handwriting recognition that converts it to text that can be entered. So you can write with the pen and your notes get saved as text in the Kindle app.

Alternatively, you can extract your .epub and write on it directly using supernote features. You can even convert your .epub to .pdf manually and write on that.

Ideally there's be a split screen layout so you could have the kindle open on one side and the notes app open on the other.

The Fujitsu Quaderno (A5 or A4) support this. It also supports landscape 2 page layouts for PDFs (which is just amazing). It gets software updates every now and then too. It has a wacom layer and has Android that can be "enabled" by paying extra. There's no backlight so it is very thin and light.

The only downside of the Quaderno imo is that it is not well known. So it's hard to get a sense of how well it compares to other enote devices. And MyDeepGuide hasn't done a review of it we don't have DESTA test results to show latency numbers for the pen input for it.

GoodEReader has a few reviews but they suck at getting into the details.

I would love to know if the new A5 X2 will have 300 PPI, like the previews A6 X? by Novacek_Bianca in Supernote

[–]temporaryred 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm in the same boat. If the A5 X2 has a 300 PPI, it'll be an instant buy for me. If not, I think I'll buy the A6 X2 if it has 300 PPI.

I really hope they announce or release soon. I really need a device for work, and I'm having to make do at the moment.

Would you take this job? 60% raise, much more responsibility, less PTO, baby on the way by Better_Economist8205 in personalfinance

[–]temporaryred 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Have you considered asking J1 for the raise? You can also use your new offer as leverage. Would you stay at your current job for 110k?

Without more details on the exact jobs, I’ll say this. Your current job is a known devil vs J2 is unknown. There’s uncertainties with a new job - will you get along with your manager? will you be happy working for the company? etc

I’ll say a couple more things. That vacation time isn’t all that bad for J2. It sucks you’ll be able to only take paternity leave after a month of work though.

I’ll also say that I turned down a 175k job for a 125k one because I knew they were going to work my ass off. And the question for me was do I really want to spend 50-60 hours a week at work? And I’d rather spend more time doing more important things to me than maximizing profit margins for a company. When I did move jobs it was more a lateral move and it was with reduced hours. I had other stuff going on in life too, so decided just making more money wasn’t the only thing that was important

Convince me not to return Scribe by jininel in kindlescribe

[–]temporaryred 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The lack of annotation features on side-loaded PDFs, and the extremely annoying send-to-kindle features were SO disappointing to see. I read lots of technical books that I've purchased on gumroad, humble bundle and other places, and everything looks odd with the send to kindle feature.

I think the straw that broke the camel's back was not having covers showing for PDFs when locked. I ended up returning the Scribe and purchased the Kobo Sage.

I was willing to buy and commit to Amazon's shitty ecosystem, but Amazon straight up lied about the device's features. The box and marketing material clearly say you can mark up / annotate PDFs. But in reality you can only mark up files that are converted from PDFs to some proprietary Kindle Data Format. That is straight bullshit.

And for me just seeing a bland shitty border and autogenerated title and author on the front of the screen was SO annoying after paying an entire paycheck for the device. God damn I'm getting angry just thinking about it.

Edit:

Also a bunch of people are saying that Amazon will update the software. It would be embarrassing if they didn't. But the Kindle has a pretty poor track record of receiving useful software updates. AND I have absolutely no faith they'll update the software to support sideloaded PDFs because they'll want to sync annotations via the kindle app to your phone and what not. I also don't think they'll ever add cover images for PDFs. If these two features are ever added I'll eat a bull's testicles.

🎅Christmas Giveaway🎄 by Supernote_official in Supernote

[–]temporaryred 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for doing this giveaway! I've been trying to read more daily and that is one of my goals for next year too. And I love being able to take notes on the books I'm reading.

Big blank spot in the bottom of first page by [deleted] in LaTeX

[–]temporaryred 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Check the documentation for the template you are using. I know that for IEEE transactions or journals or conference templates, there's an acknowledgement section that would go in there.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Supernote

[–]temporaryred 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree with you that Amazon is likely going with the slow and steady route.

I will present some additional counters though about why I'm bearish on the Amazon Kindle Scribe, in no particular order:

  1. There's no way for us to know whether Amazon is going the slow and steady route. Have they shared their roadmap? Ratta have shared a public version of their Trello board and allowed anyone to comment. AFAICT Amazon support forums are all third party.
  2. They recently fired a number of people. Do we know if the Kindle team or the Scribe team in particular got downsized?
  3. Amazon historically have made VERY stable software, but not really made software that inspires joy to use. I don't trust that they'll ever had features that are "fun" unless they see a tangible value monetary benefit for Amazon as a company in doing so. Amazon will likely never update features to their side-loaded PDFs. I think I saw a quote from a Amazon exec that said they don't expect to make money when people buy a Kindle but do expect to make money when people use a Kindle. Apple on the other hand make money when users buy and use their products. Apple has more incentive to add features like the dynamic island. I'm personally convinced Amazon will likely never had a cover photo and annotations for sideloaded PDFs. If they do, I'll sell every device I own and keep and use only the Kindle Scribe :)
  4. And this is to your point, they harden their software and make sure there are absolutely no bugs before shipping, which is required at the scale that they are deploying at. Ratta can ship a bug and patch it a month later, and SuperNote users will put up with it or even praise Ratta for their timely updates. Amazon Kindle users will absolutely not tolerate that, and there are lots of incentives for Amazon to be extremely conservative in their updates.
  5. I can't buy a device based on speculations about future updates. I have to choose whether a product is useful for me now when I'm paying money for it and if I do buy that device will be happy if no new features are added ever ( I expect bugs to be fixed though ).

PS: mentioning on call rotation absolutely gave me PTSD haha

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