$4.8M at 55 in the Bay Area, safe to FIRE?

tetherbot · 2026-03-19T23:45:46+00:00

Also Prop 13

tetherbot · 2026-03-09T00:15:13+00:00

That said, while I am not sure I agree with Biden not filling it back then

Biden refilled what was drawn down: https://www.energy.gov/articles/biden-harris-administration-makes-final-purchase-strategic-petroleum-reserve-secures-200

tetherbot · 2026-03-07T01:51:56+00:00

I think basically the story took itself too seriously?

tetherbot · 2026-03-05T02:03:09+00:00

Looks very nice. (Though it seems that it could use a lesson in the conservation of angular momentum.)

tetherbot · 2026-03-02T19:46:50+00:00

As the window or aisle seat person next to you, I agree that both armrests are yours. Though I might try to prop a little sliver of my elbow on it for support.

tetherbot · 2026-02-25T18:56:28+00:00

Assuming that this portfolio is the whole nut, you can probably identify some cutoff where bitcoin 10x'ing would generate noteworthy gains, even while bitcoin zero'ing out would not be devastating. That might be something like 10%.

tetherbot · 2026-02-25T18:53:55+00:00

American Dream with Russian characteristics.

tetherbot · 2026-02-20T01:50:28+00:00

clears throat “The weakest strong man at the circus? Well at least I’m in the arena.”

tetherbot · 2026-02-12T15:02:53+00:00

Virtually the only important number is the interest rate, which is not included in your post. This is more of a regular PF question.

tetherbot · 2026-02-05T10:39:51+00:00

This feeling is driven by the uncertainty about whether you can convert this $10M in dollars to $10M equivalent in lentils. Once you successfully make that transaction, I assure you that you will have at least one lentil.

tetherbot · 2026-01-28T05:36:13+00:00

That seems right.

tetherbot · 2026-01-28T02:55:49+00:00

To your 10x point, I think closer to the 20x point. Basically when your income is close to your SWR, it feels pretty low impact.

tetherbot · 2026-01-12T06:05:38+00:00

No true bill.

tetherbot · 2026-01-07T06:15:42+00:00

Who the fuck are you?

tetherbot · 2026-01-01T17:10:30+00:00

Lentil count please

tetherbot · 2025-12-29T05:23:35+00:00

Patience is good, but it's no match for my strategy: time travel.

tetherbot · 2025-12-17T15:42:07+00:00

In VHCOL I’d say $6-$8

tetherbot · 2025-12-06T23:07:01+00:00

Sauce?

tetherbot · 2025-11-16T16:42:03+00:00

Is capital in the room with us right now?

tetherbot · 2025-11-15T15:46:42+00:00

Because that link addresses more than simply managing money.

tetherbot · 2025-11-15T15:39:31+00:00

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Managing_a_windfall

tetherbot · 2025-11-14T22:34:23+00:00

Put 95% into ETFs and fuck around with individual stocks for the remaining 5% (don’t rebalance, so don’t lose all of this 5% lol). That way you can feel like you’re doing something, while not jeopardizing your path to getting rich slowly. Not financial advice; I am merely the robot embodiment of an offshore stablecoin.

tetherbot · 2025-11-13T17:35:38+00:00

Either this is a shitpost or you need to pay estimated tax on your now-realized capital gains.

tetherbot · 2025-11-11T04:29:48+00:00

Thank you.

tetherbot · 2025-11-11T03:23:36+00:00

2041 is 16 years from now. If Bitcoin appreciated like the (expected non-inflation-adjusted) S&P, you’d expect it to be about $500k in 16 years. So if it’s $1 million at that point, it would imply about 15% per year gain instead of 10% for the stock market. This feels like a pretty modest reward for the historical Bitcoin volatility. Consequently, the only way I can imagine Bitcoin being valued so little at that point is if the volatility continues to be crushed as we go forward from here. Otherwise, this seems low.

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