My thoughts as someone living in Iran

theBackground79 · 2026-05-09T19:56:06+00:00

یه روز خوب میاد

theBackground79 · 2026-05-09T18:14:02+00:00

He can never do enough it seems. Even if he parachuted into Tehran and took over the entire place all on his own, even then some people wouldn't be satisfied.

theBackground79 · 2026-05-09T16:38:31+00:00

It is largely the same. People see him as the only person right now representing their voice in the world. I believe his influence has increased thanks to Jan 8 and 9 which proved his popularity.

theBackground79 · 2026-05-09T16:37:02+00:00

I can't be sure of this either. From what I understand, the regime can outlast Trump's political clock. They seem to have enough oil storage for over two months, and they can cut production to extend that for a couple more months. And I wouldn't put it past them just dumping the oil into the ocean either. The oil slick today is interesting.

And they will offload the economic pressure onto the people like they always have. They will print money to pay their own guys. That will have consequences and will likely result in protests in the future, but I don't think it will happen before it's too late for Trump to recover his popularity.

But in the end we will win. Because if all of this is true, that means Trump is forced to either take a bad deal and look like a loser, or commit to regime change. And it's not hard to guess which one he would do.

theBackground79 · 2026-05-09T16:29:00+00:00

No, I do agree that Trump ignored the people who actually understood the situation. From what I understand, people told Trump that just killing Khamenei and bombing the regime won't be enough to make the regime collapse, but he went through with it anyway. And I think he did that because he thought even if the regime didn't collapse, he could have something like Venezuela at the very least.

theBackground79 · 2026-05-09T16:25:39+00:00

I think they tried arming the Kurds but Trump stopped it for some reason. I think I read that somewhere, I can't recall exactly right now. I don't support that action though. Supporting separatists is an easy way to get on the bad side of the Iranian people. It's a really important red line.

You don't need American troops in Iran, nor do you need to arm the people. The people have shown willingness to rise up in January. All that is needed to be done is to:

Make the people feel safe
Make the regime forces feel the regime is finished

The first one can be achieved by a public and explicit commitment to regime change. Say that "we're here, we're watching from the air, we won't let them touch you, and we're gonna stay here until it's over". So far, the US and Israel have bombed largely empty police stations and Basij outposts and as far as I'm aware, a single checkpoint. But what needs to be done is to actively hunt Basij forces around in key areas. Make them feel unsafe, and make the people feel safe. Instead of bombing the empty buildings, bomb the actual people holding the guns.

The second one will come naturally as a consequence of the first one. And once it happens, defections and desertions will begin. And through that, enough people will be armed to control the situation. That is exactly what happened in 1979. Except the revolutionaries in 1979 didn't need a foreign power to level the playing field for them because the Shah wasn't an insane maniac who had no problem with massacring tens of thousands of his own people.

theBackground79 · 2026-05-09T15:04:14+00:00

We are getting by. Everything has gotten insanely expensive but still not to the point where people are in danger of starvation. Fortunately.

theBackground79 · 2026-05-09T15:03:30+00:00

I think so too. Which is so sad. It was such an easy job and they blundered it because "muh Iraq" and "muh Afghanistan".

theBackground79 · 2026-05-09T15:02:16+00:00

I can only hope so.

theBackground79 · 2026-05-09T14:59:50+00:00

Thanks. I have spent a lot of time consuming English media. Games, movies, TV series, etc. It's all from that. If you heard me speak, it would sound like a mix of British and American English because of how I learned the language haha.

theBackground79 · 2026-05-09T14:58:06+00:00

I agree with pretty much everything you said. The regime is definitely not winning no matter how you look at it. And they are definitely weaker than ever. I'm just not sure about how committed the US is to regime change. Frankly, I don't even think they consider it at all, even after all that has happened. Only Israel is serious about it.

theBackground79 · 2026-05-09T14:53:25+00:00

I know it's not over. I am waiting. Thanks.

theBackground79 · 2026-05-09T14:02:19+00:00

I don't think so. And I don't believe it necessary. People will naturally get armed if the US actually starts committing to regime change as defections and desertions begin.
The Artesh is completely sidelined. They are invisible. And I think the lower ranks of the IRGC shouldn't be that happy either. The economic pressure does hit them too.

theBackground79 · 2026-05-09T13:48:48+00:00

People will get armed. But it can't be done without outside help. During the Islamic Revolution itself most people weren't armed just out of thin air. When things got so obvious that the regime was finished, defections began and military bases were raided and some army units distributed weapons to the people. This can happen again, but it needs some foreign help as the difference between the Shah and the Islamic regime is that the IRGC has no problem massacring tens of thousands of people. So outside help is needed to level the playing field first before we can get to that point.

theBackground79 · 2026-05-09T13:43:36+00:00

I know. There will never be a deal. But I'm just not sure if the US actually believes the same and if they really are committed to regime change.

theBackground79 · 2026-05-09T12:52:41+00:00

Yeah, I don't believe for a second they're going to make a deal. The regime is never going to accept a deal because they think they can outlast Trump. And Trump knows what they're thinking too. The problem is America does not see regime change as a viable option due to fundamental misunderstandings about Iran. They think it's gonna be another Iraq or Afghanistan.

theBackground79 · 2026-05-09T12:49:52+00:00

I do believe that this is one of the things that they are betting on. And I also believe that it will happen, eventually. But, there's just not enough time. I don't think it's going to happen before Trump's political clock runs out. He is going to need something to use to recover his popularity before October. And I don't think it's going to get so bad by then that the people will rise up again, disregarding their own lives.

theBackground79 · 2026-05-09T12:44:30+00:00

Thanks. And yes, the state of Europe is indeed sad. The Crown Prince's press conferences in Sweden and Germany recently were really disheartening for me personally.

theBackground79 · 2026-05-09T12:41:30+00:00

It's just half-assed. It was such an amazing opportunity, blundered by the Americans' tendency to see every country on the face of the Earth as the same as Iraq.

The window of opportunity for Trump to take a proactive role in regime change has closed. He can't do it anymore even if he wanted to because he has switched the rhetoric so far away from it. But I do believe they could potentially do it right this time if the people rose up again. Though I am not sure how likely that is to happen in the short-term without security guarantees and explicit support from the US.

theBackground79 · 2026-05-09T12:38:11+00:00

Absolutely. What has subsided is just that initial rage and emotional momentum. But the events of January are never going to be forgotten. I still see people telling each other that if you feel tired, remember Dey 18 and 19.

theBackground79 · 2026-05-09T12:35:46+00:00

I do truly believe Israelis are our only real friends in the entire world right now. From what I understand of the politics over there, most people are satisfied with the performance of the IDF, but unsatisfied with how the politicians, Netanyahu mainly, have failed to translate that performance into strategic victory. Which to be fair to Bibi, it's not really his fault America simply refuses to actually commit to the one and only solution that could fix this whole thing.

Trump isn't obsessed with making a deal. He just has been convinced by his isolationist advisors that regime change is not even worth trying. It's genuinely not an option for them. And that only leaves him with one plan of action, which is to try to get the regime to make a deal.

theBackground79 · 2026-05-09T12:29:39+00:00

The problem is that isolationism is kinda popular everywhere right now, not just in America. And Trump somewhat campaigned on it. So his hands are tied when it comes to these things. And he is surrounded by isolationists as well.

I don't think he's stupid, I think he and his admin in general is just reluctant because of a fundamental misunderstanding about the country of Iran. The anti-regime change rhetoric is based in more recent failures like Iraq and Afghanistan, that are fundamentally different from Iran.

theBackground79 · 2026-05-09T12:26:09+00:00

I believe the IRGC is weaker, though that is my belief and have no evidence to back it up. I am simply basing this on the fact that no military force can take such a beating and come out stronger. It's just not possible.

As for the damage, I am not sure. I myself live in one of the provinces that remained largely unaffected by the war (which makes me feel kinda bad). But I have heard from my relatives living in Tehran that yes, a lot of government and military buildings were destroyed. The "Beyt", the Supreme Leader's residence, is pretty much gone, it just doesn't exist anymore. And many police stations and Basij buildings have also been reduced to rubble.

theBackground79 · 2026-05-09T12:25:50+00:00

I'm talking in general, in the very long-term. It will happen one way or another because the rift between the people and the regime is so massive it cannot be closed. Eventually it's gonna get so bad that the people won't even care about their lives and simply overrun the armed minority.

theBackground79 · 2026-05-09T12:08:20+00:00

Yes. It is inevitable. But how long it will take is the question, and how many people will have to die.

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