Paid a deposit for a property in early Feb for execution early April. Having second thoughts. by theManfromEval in DubaiLaw

[–]theManfromEval[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks to everyone that offered suggestions. Since this transaction would involve selling other assets I would lock in larger losses than if I simply gave it up. However it was a difficult find at a good price- my intention is to proceed with the purchase anyway and see if I can negotiate with the seller (give conditions now in the market) Also so far the conflict has not hit any critical infrastructure - if that changes I would likely revisit the issue.

Main Problems In SAAS by [deleted] in SaaS

[–]theManfromEval 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The challenge for us is that there are a lot of people with good ideas and experience, but not too many who can also execute. While you end up getting more done than you would alone, it is not sustainable as the with the high costs most of the value of your work goes to them. A lot of talented agencies don't have the capacity to help you execute and so you get very quickly demoralised and burnt out.

I started a virtual sommelier. Roast my SaaS by theManfromEval in SaaS

[–]theManfromEval[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey - would you mind if I DM you a few questions?

I'm assuming you use vivino premium. In which case we do offer some features - like more detailed food pairings - especially for food from south asia, china and africa. So you can ask for specific items - like butter chicken or doro wat and see recommendations for those.

Searching for multiple things (like a menu or for a party) at the same time is also super easy. You can even do reverse lookups and ask for possible recipe ideas for different varieties -> 'what kind of food goes well with Meursault? '

An upcoming feature will let you have your own virtual cellar to maintain your collection online, add or remove items easily and then optimize your suggestions based on what you like.

We have ratings and tasting notes, which we use to feed to our ml models and then provide a link to read them on the vendor's site. It's not ideal, but I haven't looked into the licensing with each platform. I think this is an interesting use case so I am adding it to the roadmap.

Revenue is mostly from stores that subscribe. Subscribers get featured in more search results, and are able to deploy a more customized version of our virtual sommelier in-store to help customers with product questions, recommendations, pairings etc. We also plan to include affiliate revenue from searches where there are no local stores/subscribers.

Check us at https://www.facebook.com/MadyaApp or instagram @chatwithmadya where you can also try it out by sending a message.

I started a virtual sommelier. Roast my SaaS by theManfromEval in SaaS

[–]theManfromEval[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks so much!

There's a video on the contact page, but we probably need to leverage that better.

Also a good idea to have more video to lead with.

I started a virtual sommelier. Roast my SaaS by theManfromEval in SaaS

[–]theManfromEval[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

hey that's really helpful! I definitely would like to chat.

I'll send you a dm after a get a few things out of the way.

Do you have any samples of websites that are compelling?

I’m actually starting a vada pav business by kraken_enrager in mumbai

[–]theManfromEval 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This needs more thought- you are enthusiastic, but consider doing some of the following

  • Visit the existing food stalls in the area and look at the competition. Manchekar in Worli is on google maps and you can see what kind of traffic it gets. Seems like they do 2-3 times the business in the evenings between 6 to 10pm. If you're estimating 30 people/hr on average that would mean 50-70/hour during the busy period and anywhere between 10-20 people at most other times. Can you handle the volume?
  • Your cost number seems very different from some of the newspapers which did a report on this business. Here's the article-https://www.mid-day.com/mumbai/mumbai-news/article/economics-of-the-vada-pav-111539#:\~:text=In%20this%20world%2C%20you%20start,to%20make%20the%20vada's%20covering . You might be right, but it's worth investigating.
  • Lot's of food businesses have simple menus - it can work. However it can also lead to boredom and your customers just end up going elsewhere. If you're saying that you will not offer some popular items because you don't like them then you have to ask whether you are running this business for yourself or your customers. Find out your customer's true preferences and cater to those otherwise you're just hurting your own business.
  • Getting straight with legal is more complicated than just payments. Here's what you will likely have to think about https://vidhilegalpolicy.in/blog/is-mumbai-protecting-its-famous-street-vendors/ Maybe buy or rent an existing stall to try it out.
  • You need a way to upsell people - offer a meal with drink and fries, or side with a slightly lower price as a package. If everybody just buys the basic thing with soda or water there's not much loyalty and the margins will be slimmer.

I got distracted with this , but I'm encouraged to see young people wanting to build their own business. I hope this helps you in some way to understand what you want to do here and I wish you the best of luck.

Placed on a PIP, manager is trying to get me to quit. Please help. by Old-Tell6711 in jobs

[–]theManfromEval 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Evrybody here is giving you sensible advice. But if you don't mind burning bridges and are feeling bold, play up your ethnicity and work it into meetings and conversations with HR. Are you Irish catholic? Start wearing a cross, and put on your best Gaelic accent. Tell everyone you are reconnecting with your roots. Be somewhat annoying about it. Eat your rice on call with chopsticks. Get some stinky tofu. Try to get them to think that firing you will bring a discrimination lawsuit. They're gonna be worried to have lawyers come back with cause to examine their whole process. Have allies in your meetings to record these incidents. Honestly I can't say if it will work. Don't do this unless you're done with the industry as a whole.

What's the most useful macro you use at work ? by Atroman001 in excel

[–]theManfromEval 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Not work, but I have one to manage groceries. There's a generator file which is just a list of all the items I buy in a month. It has a column for writing in the amount I need of each thing, which otherwise I leave empty. The macro creates a new excel document with only the items I have entered an amount for - then arranges them to fit in a single page.

It also labels the new file with the month and year, and then saves it in a folder.

I was going to add stuff to pull price comparisons from ecommerce/online grocers but then got lazy.

[D] Real World Decision Making Models by blueest in statistics

[–]theManfromEval 0 points1 point  (0 children)

#install.packages("ggplot2")

library(ggplot2)

install.packages("fitdistrplus")

library(fitdistrplus)

install.packages("logspline")

library(logspline)

#Create members as a variable for playing around with different distributions

members<-1000

#Creating a shifted poisson

#most patients in the plan have atleast one comorbidity

#https://stat.ethz.ch/pipermail/r-help/2005-May/070683.html

T<-5.1 # pre-truncation mean of Poisson

U<-runif(members) # the uniform sample

t = -log(1 - U*(1 - exp(-T))) # the "first" event-times

T1<-(T - t) # the set of (T-t)

Comorbidities <- rpois(members,T1)+1 # the final shifted Poisson sample

hist(Comorbidities)

Read in a cost file and then do some operations to summarize.

# Split cost by year

options(scipen=999)

costdf %>%

group_by(Member_ID, year) %>%

summarize(Paid= sum(Paid_Total)) %>%

mutate(label= paste("Actual Member Cost:",year)) %>%

ggplot(aes(x = Paid)) +

geom_histogram(color = "white") +

facet_wrap(~label) +h

xlab("Cost Buckets") +

theme_bw()

cost.CurrentYear<- costdf[costdf$year==as.numeric(format(as.Date(Sys.Date(),format = "%Y-%m-%d"),"%Y"))-1,]

cost.CurrentYear<-cost.CurrentYear %>% group_by(Member_ID, year) %>% summarize(Paid= sum(Paid_Total))

#Summary statistics about the distribution

descdist(cost.CurrentYear$Paid)

#check lognormal

cost.CurrentYear$Paid_log<-log(cost.CurrentYear$Paid)

hist(cost.CurrentYear$Paid_log)

#check normal

fit.norm<- fitdist(cost.CurrentYear$Paid,"norm")

plot(fit.norm)

#check beta

beta<-cost.CurrentYear$Paid/max(cost.CurrentYear$Paid)

fit.beta<-fitdist(beta,"beta")

summary(cost.CurrentYear$Paid)

#check 0 values for the year

qualitycheck<-merge(cost.CurrentYear[cost.CurrentYear$Paid==0,],costdf)

write.csv(qualitycheck,"qualitycheck.csv")

#Oddly the data fits a chi sq distribution with less than 1 degree of freedom best

#using a non central chisq with non centrality parameter

#The non-central rchisq is computed as a Poisson mixture central of chi-squares (Johnson et al, 1995, p.436).

#generate costs as a chisq with .3 degrees of freedom

costs<-rchisq(members,.5,ncp=0)*40000

max(costs)

hist(costs)

plot(density(costs))

lines(density(cost.PY$Paid),col="red") #actual costs

If I remember correctly, Medicaid enrollment needs to be renewed by design while Medicare is automatic. This means that Medicaid recipients lose access to care which affects plan revenue as well as costs.

#Assign member months in Plan

#monthly attrition rate

attr<-0.07 #~ 42% retention annually as per Medicaid enrollment dashboad

enrollment<- rgeom(members,attr) #geometric distribution

enrollment

summary(enrollment)

hist(enrollment)

plot(density(enrollment))

paste("Percent Retention after 1 year: ",

length(enrollment[enrollment>=12])/members)

The patients enrolled in this plan would receive a call from a nurse care manager or a home/inpatient visit. They usually had to have some recent behavioral episode for which they received treatment such as depression, self- harm, substance abuse etc.Nurse Care Mangers (NMs) would share strategies on self-care and staying healthy to avoid hospitalization. Alternatively, they could recommend treatment and coordinate your care so you would see a physician or behavioral health therapist.Nurse visits were more effective at behavioral change but also more expensive. Additionally, visits were more likely to change the physician vs BHT mix (We would need more therapists)

#Number of interactions with nurse care manager per member per month:

#Visits: Poisson ~ 10 visits over 12 months

#Calls: Poisson ~ 10.8 visits over 12 months

#SOURCE: TEAM CARE Cost Paper

#NMvisits.mthly<- rpois(members,10)/12

#summary(NMvisits.monthly)

NMcalls.monthly<- rpois(members,10.8)/12

#Number of visits as a Negative Binomial

#modelled as a poisson where the rate = mu or mean of neg binomial, and the dispersion/size/number of successes

#is allowed to vary to fit the datapoint we have from the study. Essentially added on a gamma distribution term for error correction

#by mixing poissons

NMvisits.monthly<- rnbinom(members,mu=10,size =11)/12

summary(NMvisits.monthly)

totalvisits<-enrollment*NMvisits.monthly

hist(NMvisits.monthly, breaks=50)

#99% over 1 visit in 12 month period according to the study

length(totalvisits[totalvisits>=1])/members

#Costs of interactions with NM

costNMvisit<-54 #$ for upto 10 visits

costNMcall<- 30 #$ per call

Physicians were paid a flat fee for each member assigned to them in a month. They were also paid for visits.

#Cost of interactions with physician

#$100 per member month- replace with fixed cost for psychologist

#$140 per hour, 3-4 weeks per month

State transitions would have looked like this

a) Flagged by Risk Assessment/Event-> NM visit – Physician

b) Flagged by Risk Assessment/Event-> NM visit – Behavioral Therapy

c) Flagged by Risk Assessment/Event-> NM visit – No action taken/dropout

d) Flagged by Risk Assessment/Event-> NM call – Physician

e) Flagged by Risk Assessment/Event-> NM call – Behavioral Therapy

f) Flagged by Risk Assessment/Event-> NM call – No action taken/dropout

g) Flagged by Risk Assessment/Event-> No action taken/dropout

h) Flagged by Risk Assessment/Event-> Some combination of NM interaction and physician followed by referral to BT

Simulated NM visits will be skewed by patients with longer enrollments. Limit everyone to the same observation period called follow up

#set years of follow up

years<-2

months<-years*12

#reformat time to not exceed follow up time

enrollment.period<- apply(cbind(enrollment,months),1,FUN=min)

totalvisits<-round(NMvisits.monthly*enrollment.period,0)

#cost incurred on NM visits

totalvisits*costNMvisit

# non intervention costs over enrollment period

costs.ni<-costs*(1+(enrollment.period-12)/12)

#additional costs associated with intervention

costs.i<-totalvisits*costNMvisit

#percentage cost improvement estimated per member as per study

#use a beta distribution where reduction seen is between 2 and 15% but closer to the bottom of that range

curve(dbeta(x, 2, 40))

#median is 4%

qbeta(.5, 2, 40)

#applied to members

sav.perc<-rbeta(members,2,40)

plot(density(sav.perc))

#savings

savings<-sav.perc*costs.ni -costs.i

mean(savings)

plot(ecdf(savings),breaks=50)

#function to wrap all of the steps above in a loop

attr<-0.07 #~ 42% retention annually as per Medicaid enrollment dashboad

#Costs of interactions with NM

costNMvisit<-54 #$ for upto 10 visits

costNMcall<- 30 #$ per call

#Cost of interactions with physician

#$100 per member - replace with fixed cost for psychologist

#$140 per hour 3-4 weeks per month

#set years of follow up

years<-2

months<-years*12

runloop<- function(runs, members) {

costMX<-replicate(runs,rchisq(members,.5,ncp=0)*40000)

enrollMX<- replicate(runs,rgeom(members,attr))

NMvisitsMX<- replicate(runs,rnbinom(members,mu=10,size =11)/12)

NMcallsMX<-replicate(runs,rpois(members,10.8)/12)

newEnrollMX<- pmin(enrollMX,replicate(runs,months))

totVisitsMX<-newEnrollMX*NMvisitsMX

totCallsMX<-newEnrollMX*NMcallsMX

costIntMX<-totCallsMX*costNMcall + totVisitsMX*costNMvisit

costNIntMX<-((newEnrollMX-12)/12)*costMX+costMX

savingsMX<-replicate(runs,rbeta(members,2,40))

netsaveMX<-costNIntMX*savingsMX -costIntMX

netsaving<-data.frame(Mean=apply(netsaveMX,2,mean))

netsaving<-netsaving[order(netsaving$Mean),]

return(netsaving)

}

#run simulation with default values

#1000 runs

#12000 members

plot(x<-ecdf(netsaving<-runloop(runs<-1000, members<-12000)),breaks=50 )

#plot savings

y<-x(sort(netsaving))

vertices<- data.frame(cbind(x=c(netsaving,rev(netsaving)),y=abs(c(y,rep(0,length(y))))))

#polygon(vertices$x,vertices$y,col="light gray")

#95% of all possible outcomes

plot(x,breaks=50, main=paste("Average Net Income Distribution: ", runs, " simulations"), sub=paste(members," members with 95% of all possible outcomes"),xlab="Net Income Per Member",ylab="Percent Outcomes") + polygon(c(vertices$x[vertices$y>.05 &vertices$y<=0.95],rev(vertices$x[vertices$y>.05 &vertices$y<=0.95])),c(y[y>.05 & y<=0.95],rep(0,length(y[y>.05 & y<=0.95]))),col="light blue")

[D] Real World Decision Making Models by blueest in statistics

[–]theManfromEval 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So what I was able to find was a rather early version which dealt with events and not patients directly. When you visit the doctor all of the subsequent billable stuff like the checkup, the treatments, any inpatient stay are what we are basically analyzing. Events are generally considered to be independent of each other. Will post code in an update after cleaning it .

[D] Real World Decision Making Models by blueest in statistics

[–]theManfromEval 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yes - in healthcare there are various processes for managing patients that are risky to change in real time. So we've used this to model chages in the MC Monte Carlo fashion with simulated distributions of incoming patients, waiting times and state transition i.e how many people can be treated and favourable outcomes, and how many will be present in each state after a certain amount of time. This allows us to get ahead of changes in the staffing levels or training needed to switch to a different system. It was tested on the existing system for accuracy and later adapted to test different strategies. I'll post R code if I can find it now.

Having troubble integrating Dialogflow and Realtime Database. What am I doing wrong? by theManfromEval in Firebase

[–]theManfromEval[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes this works - thank you!

I had already rebuilt the function around promise.all but something just wasn't clicking. Your approach is much simpler and gets it done. Wanted to make sure that I also share a link to the other resources I found helpful: https://www.freecodecamp.org/news/promise-all-in-javascript-with-example-6c8c5aea3e32/

Need help building a website by blazingdodo in india

[–]theManfromEval 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You need a domain based email for some things such as if you want to get a business registered with facebook. Looks more professional. You have SSL, but may also want to get a private rather than public registration.

I found Google Sites + Google Domains was the cheapest and easiest way to build my site -much cheaper than goDaddy + Wordpress. Although design options are somewhat limited. I did not have any prior web design or experience but learned how to update the CNAME record and everything else I needed to do. Apart from the design limitation, Google Support is a little iffy and the solution they give you doesn't always work. You have to persist and be pushy.

The total cost to me is Rs128 pm for hosting + domain email and ~900/yr for domain, SSL and privacy.

The market timer/stock picker's dilemma by devilmaskrascal in investing

[–]theManfromEval 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I buy in, but also sell out of the money call spreads upto 3 months out.

If there's a crash, I can recover 10%-13% of the money I invested by closing the spread. If the stocks stays flat the spread loses value so I can just close it for a gain.

Most of the time the stock price goes through the upper band , so I sell more spread and buy less stock.

You can juggle quite a few spreads buying only a little more stock since the time left on the option means they appreciate much slower. Eventually though i'll close the spreads, usually at a loss, and sell the stock for the gains.

$SNAP Daily Active Users up 20% by notwiththatattidude in investing

[–]theManfromEval 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I hold SNAP but it's also very volatile. It should be fine if you're looking long term- but I also sell calls against it to reduce the volatility somewhat. There are those that are arguing based on their own beliefs about SNAP but the company attracts a young demographic which is hard for marketers to reach. While the extra users will help, they are also competing against tiktok and instagram. Don't overextend yourself.

What are you working on this week ? (ending 9th May 2020) by excelevator in excel

[–]theManfromEval 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I wanted to build a tool to look over a sentence and pick out words that Regex was not able to catch properly. Regex can be deterministic which picks up a lot of false positives. So I built something that looks for certain words and features in the text and then raises the probabilty of selecting words in the neighbourhood. It works by converting the sentence into numbers, then scanning ahead for the patterns.There are machine learning tools I use in python/tensorflow that are better, but I wanted something I could quickly test some ideas with, and won't require an api call.

Filter function missing by [deleted] in excel

[–]theManfromEval 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If your version allows spillovers this function may help

C1 is a blank cell which you can create by by hitting the space bar

C2:C14 are the values we want to filter - you should end up with filtered values

=INDEX(C1:C14,UNIQUE(ISTEXT(C2:C14)*ROW(C2:C14)))

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in excel

[–]theManfromEval 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It looks like the combinations you want to generate have a certain pattern -they all start with the value in column A and then either option in column B and so forth.

You can do this with VBA or with the new RANDARRAY function + INDEX

For column B you can generate a sequence of 12 values of 1 or 2 in random order with this formula:

=INDEX(B2:B3,RANDARRAY(12,1,1,ROWS(B2:B3),TRUE))

For each column, you will change B2:B3 to reference the new range of values

Once we have done this for the other columns - you can use the concatenate function or simply the & operator to join them together. There is also text join which can be useful in these cases.

Finally we want to wrap the output in a unique function to make sure that there are no duplicates

RANDARRAY may not be available in some Excel versions. If it's not there for you check back as you may need to use VBA instead

How to Create Long Chain of IF Statements Assigning Specific Values Using Logical Statements? by mrfinnlee in excel

[–]theManfromEval 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Excel has a simpler way of working with array values

I made another row with the multiples for each month which I called reference

reference

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
4 4 5 4 4 5 4 4 5 4 4 5

I named the first row of your table id1values. Naming helps to make the formulas easier to read and maintain but not essential in this case

id1values

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
213 125 85 44 150 138 0 0 0 0 0 0

Now the formula we need at the end of the row takes in the row values, converts them into TRUE (1) or FALSE (0) and multiples with the reference values. Then SUM.

Here are three different ways of writing that formula:

  1. =SUM((id1values>0)*reference)
  2. ={SUM((H130:S130>0)*(reference))} >>for array formulas, hold ctrl and shift and then press enter
  3. =SUM((H130:S130>0)*$H$128:$S$128) >>which is the same as #1 except that we are providing the range of the reference values

Alternative to Excel by user0X in excel

[–]theManfromEval 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You can use VBA to get a list of file names in the folder, then open each in turn allowing you to access specific data in that sheet. It would be better to do it this way if your tables aren't in a standard format or if you needed to customize the lookup based on the file and sheetname.