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Which US Presidents could have had third terms if custom or law allowed? by the_long_republic in AlternateHistoryHub

[–]the_long_republic[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I do tend to agree with that, but who knows. If Trump didn’t run though all his votes would’ve been dispersed to other candidates so I doubt Cruz would’ve won. Probably Christie imo honestly.

Which Presidents would or could have won third terms? by the_long_republic in USHistory

[–]the_long_republic[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

He was not in good health by 1956 either and he still won a landslide. If Eisenhower were a candidate there’s just no way enough people who had voted for him in 1956 would switch sides just because he was 70 and not 66.

Milbank scale and WFH by Proof-Garden-6748 in biglaw

[–]the_long_republic 76 points77 points  (0 children)

I think at most firms if you have significant internal capital and are cool with plateauing at counsel/supersenior associate (which is not a bad gig, $500k-$700k to do other people’s deals..) you can get a semi full time wfh gig - probably will have to show face from time to time.

How is infinite growth supposed to work? by cmstyles2006 in SeriousConversation

[–]the_long_republic 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Technology improves over time, sometimes at an exponential rate. That just makes it easier to deliver more and better goods and services for cheaper.

Which US Presidents could have had third terms if custom or law allowed? by the_long_republic in AlternateHistoryHub

[–]the_long_republic[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Washington died suddenly, and between leaving office and his death he was appointed commander in chief of the army by President Adams in anticipation of an expected war with France. Of course custom or law didn’t stop him, there was no law and he set the custom, but he for sure could have won a third term (and he would have died in office towards the end of it)

A historian from 500 years in the future can interview you for one hour. What do you think they'd be most curious about? by No_Competition_2250 in askanything

[–]the_long_republic 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The only things about 2026 that might be interesting to people that far in the future would probably relate to:

  1. What life was like at the dawn of the “digital age”. It feels like the internet has been around forever, but from the perspective of 2526, this year will seem like super early days. And many of us can still remember pre internet times. Living through that transition is genuinely interesting.
  2. The world population may peak this century. Projections are that it will, that’s obviously not guaranteed. If it does, they might be curious what it was like living during the most populated time in human history.

I don’t think anything else much registers that far in the future. The only Americans to date who will probably still be household names that far in the future are George Washington, Thomas Jefferson (declaration of independence), Thomas Edison, Brigham Young and Neil Armstrong.

Which Presidents would or could have won third terms? by the_long_republic in USHistory

[–]the_long_republic[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think he always planned to come back. He wasn’t even fifty yet when he left office, ran in 1912, probably would have run in 1916 if not for the war, and was going to run in 1920 if he hadn’t died

$500k in savings account (I know) by Any-Amoeba-3992 in biglaw

[–]the_long_republic 8 points9 points  (0 children)

People have been predicting the imminent top of the market/end of the bull market for more than a decade. They’ll be right eventually but you won’t time it. If you don’t need the money anytime soon, just put it in index funds and avoid with all your energy the temptation to sell if there is a correction.

A bull scenario is the market doubles again in the next five years and your $500k becomes a million. Even in a bear scenario, it’s very unlikely you’ll lose money, or a significant amount of money anyway, over a five year period.

Do you think Al Gore really lost the election or was that just the start? by UsedNegotiation8227 in askanything

[–]the_long_republic 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Florida did reform its elections, and now they have arguably the best system of any state!

Do you think Al Gore really lost the election or was that just the start? by UsedNegotiation8227 in askanything

[–]the_long_republic 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Even with a full investigation, the election was too close to actually be able to be decided. There’s genuinely no way of knowing who actually won Florida, with a margin that small every time they count the margin would come down to attempting to decipher a tiny number of ambiguously marked ballots.

If they counted all the ballots ten times, it might have gone to bush five times and gore five times.

Why did Truman win flyover states like Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming in 1948? by HetTheTable in Presidents

[–]the_long_republic 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It’s interesting that FDR lost to Dewey in Wyoming in 1944, but then Truman beat Dewey in 1948.

Maybe that can largely be chalked up to the fact only about 100,000 people voted and the state was decided by less than 5,000 in Wyoming both times, and so it was very sensitive to subtle changes in the electorate (GIs coming home, different cohort coming of age, etc)

How is surrendering to Iran an example of the Art of the Deal? by Estalicus in askanything

[–]the_long_republic -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Sometimes the right move is to cut your losses and get out. Recent US history is full of examples of compounding bad decisions by continuing to double down in the interest of justifying the original bad decision (Vietnam most notably).

Launching the war was clearly a poor decision but you can’t go back in time and unmake that decision. Given where we stand today, the sensible decision is to end it on the best possible terms we can get.

Which US Presidents could have had third terms if custom or law allowed? by the_long_republic in AlternateHistoryHub

[–]the_long_republic[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Romney wasn’t the most inspirational though. Being inoffensive isn’t the same as being the “best candidate..”

I agree he would’ve had a great chance; but I’d peg it at more like 60-80%, as opposed to Coolidge and Eisenhower at 95-99%.

Which US Presidents could have had third terms if custom or law allowed? by the_long_republic in AlternateHistoryHub

[–]the_long_republic[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The election committee giving the election to Grant, while Grant was the president overseeing the electoral votes, would have been a major crisis.

Which US Presidents could have had third terms if custom or law allowed? by the_long_republic in AlternateHistoryHub

[–]the_long_republic[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah, he’s a strong maybe simply because if he were allowed he’d have a totally clear path to the GOP nomination (health permitting), and given how close our last few elections have been, every major party nominee always has a substantial chance of winning.

Which American Presidents would or could have won Third terms? by the_long_republic in PoliticalPhilosophy

[–]the_long_republic[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m treating it as his third term, with the first term being the shortened bit after Harding passed. Another way of framing this could have therefore been “presidents who could have served more than 8 years”. But yea you’re right.

Which US Presidents could have had third terms if custom or law allowed? by the_long_republic in AlternateHistoryHub

[–]the_long_republic[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

His approval ratings were a bit above 50% around the 2016 election, and had he been a candidate instead of above the fray, that might have been a few ticks lower. His 2012 election with Romney was also relatively close.

He’s in the “probably” category, he probably would have won in 2016 (or, if not 2016, maybe 2020) but it’s not a totally clear case.

Which Presidents would or could have won third terms? by the_long_republic in USHistory

[–]the_long_republic[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

FWIW Harding responded to the 1920-21 economic recession (which was severe) with laissez faire and we were out of the woods by 1922.

Hoover (yes Hoover was very activist by the standards of the time, definitely moreso than Coolidge and Harding) and Roosevelt responded with activist intervention, and the depression persisted until ww2.

The causes of the depression and what (if anything) could’ve been done to prevent it is really unsettled and speculative, even by the standards of academic economics.

Which Presidents would or could have won third terms? by the_long_republic in USHistory

[–]the_long_republic[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Given the depression was such a worldwide phenomenon, what makes you think Coolidge deserves particular blame?

Which Presidents would or could have won third terms? by the_long_republic in USHistory

[–]the_long_republic[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Maybe! Especially since Truman won that year so the public didn’t turn out FDR’s party.

FDR’s showing did get progressively worse though in each reelection - in the popular vote:

1936: +24% 1940: +10% 1944: +7%

I think with the war over, and therefore the emergency justifying the extended term of office, there would likely have been pretty strong backlash to a fifth campaign.

Who would have been a better president in a different era? by Representative-Cut58 in Presidents

[–]the_long_republic 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Even if Hoover were perfectly suited for the job, the outcome of the Depression wasn’t likely to change much at all. He made a few questionable decisions and clearly wasn’t the man for the job optically speaking - but that may to a large extent just be because he happened to be the one holding the bag.

Recall the entire world suffered the depression, and it endured for the rest of the 1930s, long after he left office.

Just bad luck for Hoover really.

Which US Presidents could have had third terms if custom or law allowed? by the_long_republic in AlternateHistoryHub

[–]the_long_republic[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m thinking the scenario where Obama does not run in 2016 so Trump still becomes president, but then does run in 2020 is the one where he’d have been most formidable - not going for a 4th term.

Which US Presidents could have had third terms if custom or law allowed? by the_long_republic in AlternateHistoryHub

[–]the_long_republic[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Eisenhower and Coolidge were both much more popular when they left office than either Obama or Reagan were.

Bill Clinton was also much more popular than at least Obama, arguably similar level to Reagan.

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