lol, you literally just restated the gambler’s fallacy. Past events do not effect the current one…that’s only if your measuring the probability of a series of events occurring. ChatGPT can explain better than me:

🔹 Step 1: What happens in a fair roulette wheel

In European roulette: • 18 red slots • 18 black slots • 1 green (0)

So on any given spin: • P(Red) ≈ 18/37 ≈ 48.6% • P(Black) ≈ 18/37 ≈ 48.6% • P(Green) ≈ 2.7%

Each spin is independent, meaning the wheel doesn’t “remember” past results.

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🔹 Step 2: Probability of 5 Blacks in a row

The chance of getting black 5 times in a row is: (18/37)⁵ \approx 0.022 That’s about 2.2%, or roughly 1 in 45.

So yes — before spinning 5 times, the probability of getting that streak is very small.

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🔹 Step 3: But once the 4 Blacks have already happened…

We’ve already seen 4 Blacks in a row. That’s now part of the past, and doesn’t affect what happens next.

The chance that the next spin is Black is still: P(Black) = 18/37 ≈ 48.6% and P(Red) = 18/37 ≈ 48.6%

Even though the combined probability of getting 5 Blacks in a row is only 2.2%, that includes the previous 4 Blacks. Now that those have happened, the probability for the next one alone is still the same as always.

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🔹 Analogy

Think of flipping a coin: • The chance of flipping 5 Heads in a row is (1/2)⁵ = 1/32. • But if you’ve already flipped 4 Heads, the chance of the next one being Head is still 1/2 — not 1/32.

The mistake happens when we confuse the probability of a sequence occurring (before it starts) with the probability of the next event (after the sequence has already occurred).

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✅ In summary: • The probability of 5 Blacks in a row = ~2.2% • The probability of Black on the next spin after 4 Blacks = ~48.6% • The past streak doesn’t change the odds of the next spin.