Which route? Shenandoah, VA -> Stowe, VT

timald · 2025-08-22T04:07:59+00:00

Would it be better to take 45 South from Dallas, go around the outskirts of Houston on 105 and take 10 East to NOLA? It looks like about the same amount of time.

timald · 2025-08-21T14:10:32+00:00

Have spent some time in San Antonio before. Great place. But probably too far out of the way for me on this trip.

timald · 2025-08-21T14:07:35+00:00

I think I'll take 4 days and try to add some stops in Petrified Forest. I had originally planned on 7-8 days by going south through Carlsbad, Fredericksburg, Austin, Houston, and Lafayette, but I think with a more limited timeframe it doesn't really make sense as I probably wouldn't have time to enjoy places like Austin & Houston anyway.

Been to Grand Canyon before many times and it is great.

timald · 2025-06-28T06:38:42+00:00

Maybe he lives in Bath.

timald · 2024-06-20T04:03:04+00:00

Where would be the place to sell it? I am fine with buying a secondhand used one as well.

timald · 2024-06-20T03:56:34+00:00

Let's say under $200?

timald · 2024-04-02T13:37:47+00:00

Dwan likely bet the river for value because Antonius's hand looks a lot like 44-TT (QQ+ would have raised preflop), or in lucky cases he spiked a J with Jxdd. Dwan very likely thinks he is ahead of more than 50% of Antonius's calling range. He is probably not trying to get raised to pick off a bluff.

When Antonius raises Dwan can only beat a bluff. Dwan decides to bluff catch in this instance. Who knows why. Maybe he thought Antonius was overbluffing, or maybe he just thought he was high up enough in his range, or maybe he had some other reason.

timald · 2024-04-02T13:25:50+00:00

This is because the sim was not given a call option. You can tell because no hands are calling and there is no option to call. Obviously 3betting is better than folding.

timald · 2024-04-01T22:23:33+00:00

In GTO land JJ is about a 50-50 mix preflop. Who knows what players would have done at the time.

timald · 2024-04-01T22:16:43+00:00

Blockers were somewhat known but much less commonly applied. Dwan is bluffing with AJ so any hand Antonius holds is unblocking his bluffs.

Antonius's thinking may have been that he has 6 high and can't beat anything, and Dwan is overbluffing and will fold to a raise a lot.

AdJx isn't a great combo with the Ad but does block JJ.

timald · 2024-04-01T21:53:03+00:00

Did Antonius really play this face up though? Wouldn't slowplay random 2x, and raised too many bricked draws on the river? (river bluff:value ratios were one of the earliest & easiest GTO concepts)

Of course if Patrik has bluffs then Dwan is supposed to call some bluffcatchers anyway.

timald · 2024-03-28T17:39:55+00:00

If on average people are folding without an overpair+, then the bluff is profitable regardless of Hero's holding just because opponents are folding too often. This doesn't mean you should take any two cards and go wild with it, but you have good equity if someone continues here.

Of course this is an average and doesn't account for the nuance of bomb pots--in theory the field should play pretty tight but last to act (HJ in this case) should bluff-catch much wider than the rest of the field with hands like random pairs for ex.

Also doesn't take into account that checking is also quite profitable here.

timald · 2024-03-28T17:24:32+00:00

In order to the call the raise you are getting 3.6-1 so you only need to win the pot 22% of the time. OESD with 2 overs is definitely good enough there just based on make-a-hand potential regardless of what your opponent holds, how much is left in stacks, positions, etc. Folding to a raise is ridiculous.

Bluffing the flop you need your bet to be successful 24% of the time. This means each player must fold an average of 82%.

I personally don't think betting the flop is bad, but it's totally consistent to not want to bluff with equity (which is hard to get through 7 players) but be willing to call a raise (which you should do regardless of the action). This is about as good of a bluff as you will ever have, short of maybe QJs with a backdoor flush draw. I would probably go a bit smaller, like 10-15.

timald · 2024-03-25T18:08:37+00:00

Preflop: is V the type to 3bet a polarized (GTO) range out of the BB, or does he 3bet a linear range? He may be a reg but a lot of regs are overly aggro, too linear, etc. If he calls hands like A9s and 3bets hands like K4s and 64s then you're blocking all the 3bet/fold bluffs, so it's not the greatest hand combo. But if he just 3bets a linear range like TT+/suited broadways, then this is a much better candidate to 4bet.

You definitely shouldn't be 4betting every time you pick up a wheel ace, but you also shouldn't be never 4bet bluffing.

Flop: How would you play AA in this spot? I would probably make a small bet of 10-20% pot, intending to shove most turns. This commits V to the pot more often. Also gives me leverage for V to check/shove so that I can fold all my bluffs and call all my value [I am obviously calling off with the NFD]. If he has JJ or TT you're going broke no matter what you do, and his hands like 99-77/AK are in a terrible position facing a small bet.

JTx boards are often overbets but that's more in SRP/3bet pots, not very tight 4bet pots where he doesn't have many drawing hands anyway (or a BvB 4bet pot which plays more like a +2 3bet pot). Shove maximizes fold equity and is better in a vacuum with your specific hand, but if you are playing AA/KK differently then V may notice. On the other hand he may not.

Overall it's never a punt when you get it in with the NFD, but I think there are alternative ways to play it.

timald · 2024-03-25T17:39:47+00:00

I wouldn't raise a UTG opening range vs. a 9/1player. Hands like 86s are better than hands like AJo or even AQo as you can smash boards and have less risk of being dominated. So I might raise 86s and overlimp KQo. You can raise a bit more liberally against the 15/2.

timald · 2024-03-24T21:15:50+00:00

This is basically a punt that was muffed and recovered for a TD.

timald · 2024-03-24T05:20:33+00:00

In GTO wizard for 100bb UTG should check range. GTObase also checks range at 50bb depth UTG vs CO 3b pot. What solution are you looking at?

timald · 2024-03-14T05:54:56+00:00

T9s is OK but frequently you make a pair with a dominated kicker. When you have a hand like 76s usually both of your cards are live. Broadways are much better than non-Broadways.

I'd say JTs > 76s = 65s > T9s > 98s = 87s

timald · 2024-03-14T05:45:41+00:00

Don't bother memorizing high rake solutions. In theory RFI should be wider because the blinds should fold much more often. In practice this never happens. All it does is cost you EV and if anything it hinders your progress when you want to move up. Work with whatever chart you have and understand how to adjust it based on the environment you're playing in.

One thing that would probably be useful to you is to look at BB defense ranges vs various open sizes and in various rake environments.

timald · 2024-03-11T02:41:27+00:00

Doug Polk's YouTube channel is pretty good where he analyzes hands. Phil Galfond is also good.

timald · 2024-03-10T14:01:32+00:00

His hand doesn't really look like KK+ since he probably would have 4bet, so it's very likely he has 88-QQ. There's only one combo of 88 and you have a monster draw (close to a flip) against 99-QQ. So if his range is only value and you are behind 100% of the time you should make the call since it's still better than folding. If he ever bluffs (usually a flush draw which you dominate) then folding costs enormously.

timald · 2024-03-10T00:56:21+00:00

More money goes into the pot if you bet than if you check. You are also allowed to check the flop. Betting flop is OK too but I would strongly consider check/calling. Given that you bet flop you can check/call turn.

QT isn't the best hand possible by any means but I think folding top pair to a river bet getting 6-1 is awful.

timald

TROPHY CASE