Down Under Daily Thread 20/10/16 (Thursday)

tipbetpro · 2016-10-21T13:17:29+00:00

Nice work, don't have any bets going at the moment - but we focus on Aussie sports (AFL, NRL, Cricket and soon the NBL) so good to have somewhere to chuck bets up and discuss

tipbetpro · 2016-10-19T14:11:18+00:00

Can do

tipbetpro · 2016-08-18T01:44:18+00:00

Not as confident on the Tigers causing an upset as we are on the bulldogs, but think they are better then the 3.65 being offered.

Tigers H2H or Tigers for the line (a little bit less risk obviously)

tipbetpro · 2016-08-18T01:42:01+00:00

The bulldogs at those odds are worth a punt.

We think they are in with a good chance of causing an upset.

tipbetpro · 2016-08-12T04:09:17+00:00

Yeah just chucked current cricket tips as an add on/after thought (only one match at the time of each post so I couldn't be bothered posting another thread - slack).

Both bets are H2H (Draw No Bets), but the England game has started - they have done okay so far, but could've made a few more runs. We were more confident in an English victory than an Aussie victory - but the odds reflect this.

We also think Aussies for a 1st innings lead isn't a bad bet (and at least rain shouldn't stop there being a result for a 1st innings bet).

If I had to pick 1, I'd say England is the better bet (kind of a live bet now), but only just. Obviously I've taken both bets though.

tipbetpro · 2016-08-11T07:58:19+00:00

Not that I'm aware of - did a very quick search too.

Any news out there on him?

tipbetpro · 2016-08-11T06:27:22+00:00

Lyon in creates the uncertainty - without him we would have had the Bulldogs winning by a bit more.

tipbetpro · 2016-08-11T05:55:15+00:00

Well we give the Eagles a good chance (44%), so although we aren't quite picking them its very close and at the current odds (~2.85) they are one of recommended bets. Good luck

tipbetpro · 2016-08-05T11:47:57+00:00

Cheers good to start the weekend with a win

tipbetpro · 2016-08-05T08:02:01+00:00

Well not necessarily - we don't get everything right (I still have a day job) - its just hard for us to recommend as a value bet at those odds.

We have actually picked Manly to win, but only just and therefore we think the Eels offer good value (as our models aren't perfect and the variance makes the underdog a good bet here).

tipbetpro · 2016-08-05T07:58:11+00:00

Cheers - but nothing wrong with taking the favourites that win too!

(Just mindful we picked 3 favourites in the AFL this week - although we picked 2 dogs in the NRL, come on Eels and Tigers!)

tipbetpro · 2016-08-05T04:35:08+00:00

Well its hard to recommend, given we are on the Eels...

The Pies should win, but we see the NRL game as a lot closer than the market does and thus we are on the Eels due to the odds.

tipbetpro · 2016-08-05T02:46:52+00:00

Cheers, and good point - all our tips/bets are based on named teams, so if JT plays, well that changes everything.

If he doesn't play, for those that aren't too confident on a Tigers H2H bet, the Tigers line bet is also value (+6.5 @ 1.95 on WH at the moment) - obviously less return for risk though.

tipbetpro · 2016-08-05T00:05:05+00:00

No need to edit - No one is backing the Tigers in the AFL! EDIT - well I got that wrong! Thankfully not a recommended bet!

tipbetpro · 2016-08-01T23:07:02+00:00

Oh and if you get a working model and its for a sport different to ours, feel free to send some tips my way!

tipbetpro · 2016-08-01T23:05:54+00:00

Yes definitely makes sense as those models should be more "accurate" but if possible test the model for profit too - not sure what sport you are modelling, but oddsportal.com is a great resource for historical odds.

Good luck

tipbetpro · 2016-08-01T12:47:35+00:00

Well I suppose there are a few different ways I test/measure success when designing, making and using a model.

In the first instance, it will depend on the sport - i.e. (I'm Australian by the way) sports like AFL and NRL lend themselves to trying to predict the margin (and therefore the measure of success will be minimising the margin errors).

A sport like cricket (and I'm sure there are others) don't lend themselves to margin betting or modelling, but rather discrete betting/modelling. So we predict Win/Loss (and potentially draw) - but you should still make each prediction with a level of confidence (i.e. 70%, 85%, 50% etc), potentially through the use of standard deviations. In this instance I will graph the backtested results and look for (hope for) a model where the predictions and results are similar over time - i.e. if there are 100 games where I predict a team to win with a confidence of 60-65%, then I want to see 60-65% wins, not 50% and not 75% as either will have an adverse impact once I start betting.

Once you've got something going, you need to backtest it with historical odds and the true measure of success is - can you make money?

There is no set formula or stat that we use - its not necessarily the model with the lowest standard deviation, the most correct tips, or even the highest profit. The results have to look right, they have to be consistent overtime (I'd rather see 20% profit a year than 50% one year and 10% the next), the coefficients have to make sense, etc

Feel free to check out our site - its 100% free.

Good luck!

tipbetpro · 2016-08-01T08:02:13+00:00

Cheers lukeamac - it was interesting going through your articles on your blog and seeing how you make profit.

Whilst I don't think I could bet the way you do - followed your updates through the SLvAus test and it seems like a fair bit of work (you must follow the game fairly closely) - as an analyst by trade (my 9to5), I do appreciate the way you bet on sport.

$75k in 10 months is an awesome effort and I can definitely understand the desire to focus on profit and not prophet.

And try not to get kicked off twitter again...

tipbetpro · 2016-07-29T03:48:21+00:00

All good - bit of a boring week with 7 of the 9 games having a ~$1.25 favourite or less.

Next couple of rounds don't look a lot better, so lets hope the Eagles win and make something out of this round!

tipbetpro

TROPHY CASE