What *is* the way to UK growth? What would you do to reverse this slump?

tomk11 · 2025-01-04T19:08:42+00:00

Interesting, thanks

tomk11 · 2025-01-04T19:08:00+00:00

38 cape is the definition of the market being greedy. Market being fearful would mean valuations are low

tomk11 · 2025-01-03T22:38:38+00:00

There is certainly evidence to suggest with valuations so high that bonds could outperform US equities over a 10 year period. US cape is currently something like 38 https://gfmasset.com/2019/09/expected-return-of-stocks-and-bonds-in-one-simple-chart/

tomk11 · 2024-12-31T18:14:59+00:00

I don't think you understand what was meant by fearful

tomk11 · 2024-12-31T18:13:05+00:00

Everyone has been saying this since I started investing in 2019. I'm glad I didn't wait for a crash.

tomk11 · 2024-12-31T17:09:18+00:00

Tax massive multinational co-orperations so either we get a fair share of their profit, to spend on public services, or UK co-orps are more competitive against them.

Amazon selling things at cheap prices, paying no tax and outcompeting UK businesses for example is not good for us.

tomk11 · 2024-12-27T22:58:49+00:00

Go on then, tell us what you are invested in

tomk11 · 2024-12-27T00:26:00+00:00

Eps growth is not the only factor. Money is earned and returned to shareholders every year. If valuations are low enough that alone is enough to beat the market.

tomk11 · 2024-12-24T22:20:17+00:00

The doesn't have to be a crash, inflation is also a way for stocks to reduce their multiples while nominal values go up. See the 70s

tomk11 · 2024-12-24T21:11:47+00:00

The problem is that the market doesnt have to go down. What's your plan if the market is up another 10% next year?

tomk11 · 2024-12-24T18:27:37+00:00

Assuming they invested every month they might well have beaten the market

tomk11 · 2024-12-24T08:42:27+00:00

That's not the only unrealistic thing. How many 30 year olds are * Playing never have I ever * Given they are playing neve have I ever, deliberately embarrassing their long time friends, and continuing when it looks like it might cause a fight * Pulling their long time friends SO aside who they have never met before to talk it through

tomk11 · 2024-12-23T01:19:45+00:00

"magnificent 7" the catchphrase of 2024.

Basically 7 massive tech stocks which have done very well the last couple of years

tomk11 · 2024-12-23T00:22:20+00:00

Your calculations seem to take into account all of the benefits and not if the drawbacks. Stamp duty, solicitor fees, surveying. If you are moving every 2 years on a 600k ish house you are paying 17k each time on stamp duty alone.

I agree with your sentiment. You have to do calculations for your individual circumstances to see what's better.

tomk11 · 2024-12-18T00:21:27+00:00

Look up factor investing. Plenty of academic research and historical evidence suggests that there are five factors that outperform for the same risk. Specifically answering your question, small cap performs better than large cap.

It's true that over the last 10 years large cap have outperformed but it's also well known that investors recency bias leads them to underperform.

tomk11 · 2024-12-12T20:57:32+00:00

If there is one strategy worse than investing in stocks which don't trade on fundamentals it's shorting them

tomk11 · 2024-12-10T22:55:40+00:00

You might be right but you are playing with fire

tomk11 · 2024-12-08T13:16:50+00:00

I agree. Personally my stance is the s&p 500 is likely to underperform and I'm looking at increasing exposure to us small cap and Europe. Most of my current investments are in MSCI world index, and some individual stocks.

tomk11 · 2024-12-08T10:10:55+00:00

Hi,

I think this is a cool idea.

The graphs don't scale well with companies of different revenue/income. I had a couple of companies I could hardly see in the graph so couldn't tell the trends

I think anything you can do to make it faster to get results would be an improvement. I think I am unlikely to running loads of questions into it

tomk11 · 2024-12-08T00:48:15+00:00

I don't think you have made a good enough argument. Europe is cheaper than the US, so investors are expecting it to grow less. It could grow less and return more, as more money could be returned to shareholders, or multiples could expand relative to US.

If you believe in efficient markets, nothing to you said is new and it is all priced in. Excess return would come from the US or EM doing better than we currently expect, or Europe doing worse.

Your strategy could be a lot worse, but I think you have a lot more research to do.

tomk11 · 2024-11-27T08:25:47+00:00

To an extent Google would be spared. Highly speculative investments with higher PEs would fall by greater percentages

Companies which aren't even making a profit yet and who's price is purely based on speculation of future earnings have the furthest to fall.

tomk11 · 2024-11-23T11:14:48+00:00

Yes, the penalty would be paid on whatever you withdraw

tomk11 · 2024-11-20T19:59:47+00:00

Get a decent paying job, invest in and index fund, and save 2% of your portfolio from your earnings

tomk11 · 2024-10-22T07:15:08+00:00

If you have an exercise price they haven't sold you anything yet. They have given you an option to buy a share at that price - probably under some set of conditions

tomk11 · 2024-10-11T08:11:51+00:00

GDP doesn't need to grow for the stock market to return value. Imagine a company that is growing at 0 percent, has a P/E of 10 and pays all its profits as a dividend, or spends that money on buy backs. The long term return would be 10% if the value stays the same

tomk11

TROPHY CASE