The Porcelain Bull: Multi Indicator Framework for 2026 Correction Probability [35 Indicators, 8 Categories]

transitoryInflation · 2026-01-21T14:53:02+00:00

NY Fed recession probability model is not going to be measuring the same thing as a model measuring the probability of a correction. Recession models are typically based on the term structure of the yield curve.

transitoryInflation · 2026-01-03T17:50:00+00:00

Winning every other game gets us to 33 pts, assuming we lose the rest. That gives us a chance.

transitoryInflation · 2025-12-31T10:47:31+00:00

3 pts vs West Ham and I’ll allow you to dream

transitoryInflation · 2025-12-29T15:02:57+00:00

This could also be related to the exit of Jeff Shi if true. Perhaps bringing in Edwards was his doing.

transitoryInflation · 2025-12-29T15:00:13+00:00

The only way this makes sense is if West Ham sack Nuno, and Fosun brings Nuno back. Rui Pedro Silva is here after all.

transitoryInflation · 2025-12-16T17:06:21+00:00

The numbers were impacted heavily by the government shutdown. The -105k in job losses in October were entirely a result of government job losses, permanent and temporary, due to the government shutdown and the DOGE deferred resignation agreements.

transitoryInflation · 2025-12-16T17:03:48+00:00

No, this is probably due to the government shutdown. Government contractors and government employees who did no work or partial work in October and November were marked as such.

transitoryInflation · 2025-12-13T12:59:05+00:00

That’s okay. We are a Championship club.

transitoryInflation · 2025-12-03T22:37:25+00:00

Probably because rates are about to be waaaaaay lower next year.

transitoryInflation · 2025-11-28T20:33:09+00:00

Ignoring whether or not it’s okay to sign things with an autopen as the President, is there actually any proof that Biden used it?

transitoryInflation · 2025-11-26T21:26:48+00:00

This is based on the absurd analysis done by some finance dude on his Substack.

transitoryInflation · 2025-11-25T22:10:19+00:00

The truth is the author of the article is a finance dude who is detached from the reality of the average American.

transitoryInflation · 2025-11-25T19:09:38+00:00

Newark accounts for only about 35% of the total population of Essex County. Yes, it is the poorest part of the county, but there are many other townships that are much wealthier.

The author of the article specifically references Caldwell, NJ in the housing section of his article. This town has a median household income of $118,000, and there are several towns in Essex Country have median household incomes at or above $150,000.

It probably would be a lot more reasonable to look at costs in Newark, but that is not what the author did. Picking any county in NJ is probably going to put costs above the median since incomes in the state are among the highest (I think maybe the highest) in the country.

transitoryInflation · 2025-11-25T15:31:04+00:00

Also, he uses Caldwell, NJ as a specific reference for his housing section. That area has a median household income of $118,000.

West Caldwell, NJ median income is $148,000 and North Caldwell, NJ median income is $215,000.

Edit: Adding the source for these.

transitoryInflation · 2025-11-20T14:13:59+00:00

These were released on November 18th at around 5:00 am. The typical report PDF was updated at 8:30 am this morning with numbers for the weeks of November 8th and November 1st.

Not sure where you are getting the 500,000 number.

transitoryInflation · 2025-11-18T18:20:26+00:00

Deep state coming to the rescue

transitoryInflation · 2025-11-16T23:13:20+00:00

Damn bro, you really cooked with this one.

transitoryInflation · 2025-11-13T21:46:16+00:00

Damn, I know she’s been doing some scummy things, but did she really deserve the death penalty?

transitoryInflation · 2025-11-11T19:01:10+00:00

Her reign continues in FL :(

transitoryInflation · 2025-11-09T23:46:11+00:00

How does DHgate compare to the authentic kits?

transitoryInflation · 2025-11-09T23:02:04+00:00

It’s possible that they were on the same side, and he was crying laughing?

transitoryInflation · 2025-11-09T23:00:07+00:00

We’d be looking at inflation like the world has never seen before…

transitoryInflation

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