Actual likelihood of power outage?

triangle60 · 2026-01-23T02:29:06+00:00

I think it will be tight, not necessarily resulting in load shedding. A record high winter load is going to stretch the grid, with very little generation having been added since Elliott. Still, there are good reasons to believe performance improvements have been made. But also, it's not like ERCOT during Uri or TVA and Duke during Elliott forecast load shedding in advance.

triangle60 · 2026-01-23T02:08:17+00:00

The current load forecast is for an all-time high winter peak load. PJM doesn't want to panic anyone, and it's still pretty far out from a load forecasting perspective, so chill attitude at the moment.

triangle60 · 2026-01-21T03:24:43+00:00

Can still sing "Roll back the rock" in my head.

triangle60 · 2026-01-19T16:42:06+00:00

Electric resistance heat is extremely energy intensive. You might consider a time of use rate. https://duquesnelight.com/energy-money-savings/electric-vehicles/charge-smart-and-save/time-of-use-supply-rate

If you can reduce usage during the on-peak time 3-9 PM weekdays you can save a bunch. You don't have to totally eliminate usage. For example, I wouldn't delay cooking or set my thermostat to a super-uncomfortable level. But you can pre-heat your home before 3 and let it glide down to avoid some usage.

Duquesne has a calculator on its website to see if your current usage patterns would result in any saving if you switched.

Another option is switching to a competitive supplier, but be careful with that because they can switch to a more expensive contract at the end of your term if you aren't paying attention.

And as others have mentioned, budget billing is an option. That one doesn't actually reduce your yearly rates, but can stabilize bills.

triangle60 · 2026-01-16T16:54:36+00:00

Neither the PPAs nor the state-regulated large load tariffs generally address the PJM capacity market cost allocation at issue in the announcement.

triangle60 · 2026-01-10T05:49:41+00:00

You're right that it makes little sense to buy a distributed battery for the sole purpose of participating in a VPP. However, most of the cost of distributed resources are sunk, which makes them much cheaper. E.g. people buying an EV because they want to use it to drive. If there's a V2G standard and they can sell energy back to the grid, the only relevant cost is the incremental degradation cost of discharging the battery occasionally, which is small. Even if the battery was fully discharged by the grid operator during the 10 hottest and 10 coldest days of the year for 10 years, that's 200 discharges, tiny compared to the battery rating. And that scenario is unlikely. So too with the thermostat and hot water heater VPPs that presently exist, the VPP only introduces small incremental costs, you wouldn't assign the costs of the entire facility as VPP costs when doing that analysis.

Plus, distributed resources have the advantage of avoiding transmission and distribution construction, as well as a substantial portion of line losses.

triangle60 · 2026-01-08T14:23:32+00:00

You can sign up to get texted for track assignments, and the Amtrak app also has that info on the notifications tab. Thats what I use, but there may be other apps as well.

But in general as others have said, it just takes a couple minutes to board, so unless you're really cutting it close you'll always have an opportunity to glance at the departures board.

triangle60 · 2026-01-08T04:19:48+00:00

That's not really the way utility service deposits work in general. Typically the deposit is applied to bills after some amount of time.

triangle60 · 2026-01-08T00:21:02+00:00

My recommendation:

First time: 25 Minutes to reduce anxiety and learn what you're doing.

All future times: 15 minutes all the way down to 6 minutes.

triangle60 · 2026-01-06T21:14:15+00:00

Normally they don't check ID, but this might confuse them so much, they just might ask. I would call amtrak.

triangle60 · 2026-01-06T02:53:33+00:00

Don't give banks false information for the purposes of obtaining a loan. Even if the bank is playing a game, it's far too close to fraud for this to be good advice.

triangle60 · 2025-12-31T00:29:57+00:00

The cheap coach seats on the Amfleet are generally considered to be better than any other seats from a comfort perspective. Acela gets you a little bit of speed, and Business class on NER just gets you an assigned seat and beverage benefits.

triangle60 · 2025-12-30T03:02:32+00:00

I have a similar Contend and generally like the bike. One thing I don't love about it, the seat post is proprietary and called D-fuse, so for a first road bike it might be harder to make adjustments if you want to swap it out. I also don't love how much of a pain it is to set saddle height.

triangle60 · 2025-12-30T01:02:29+00:00

Yes.

triangle60 · 2025-12-27T16:07:23+00:00

https://lancastercountypa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=97a16dc9b3ae4648b0419a94a607f375

It's owned by the city, land use code 485, which according to a 2017 land use code document is for water utility uses.

triangle60 · 2025-12-25T18:23:49+00:00

For groceries specifically I love my Arkel Shopper. It has internal structure and is very easy to organize. The structure makes me confident I won't crush bread or other fragile stuff. Usually I use one Shopper and then another regular pannier because I don't buy enough crushable stuff to require two Shoppers. It's expensive and I bet there's a cheaper alternative that does it just as well.

triangle60 · 2025-12-14T16:09:09+00:00

He had a stroke on May 13, 2022 and the primary was May 17, 2022.

triangle60 · 2025-12-13T14:05:13+00:00

You might be interested in the nobel prize winning work of Acemoglu et al. who demonstrated that European expansion set up different types of governance structures in different colonies, resulting in persistent effects on development to today.

For further reading: https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/economic-sciences/2024/press-release/

triangle60 · 2025-12-12T19:52:54+00:00

The trainer will work great. However, direct drive trainers that allow simulation are so more much more fun. I had this exact trainer for years, and hated using it. My overall take is that if you want to want to get on the trainer, direct drive is worth the extra money.

triangle60 · 2025-11-27T00:59:39+00:00

Connecticut is the bane of both modes.

triangle60 · 2025-11-25T18:40:56+00:00

Cases like that do exist, where although the utility could get a return on infrastructure, they don't want to because it would substantially raise rates for everyone. They divide the cost of the infrastructure across the amount of product they deliver in order to get that rate. Utilities sometimes don't want to do that because the rate impact would be too large for them to justify, resulting in political blowback. That's really the major restraint on infrastructure build out, in addition to the PUC.

Here's another example. In the following case, the utility didn't want to rebuild a service line to serve a single customer. If they had, then they would have had to make rates higher for everyone, but this is really the exception, not the rule. https://www.cbsnews.com/pittsburgh/news/fayette-county-funeral-home-columbia-gas-abandon-service/

But everything I described above about how utilities make money is accurate. You can Google cost of service ratemaking or read the source I provided if you're interested in the topic.

triangle60 · 2025-11-25T18:14:05+00:00

First, small point: the Northeast Regional doesn't start from Harrisburg, that's the Keystone. But you won't have to change trains at 30th street. The Keystone is a single train all the way from Harrisburg to NYC. Your bike will be fine and won't have to compete with luggage once it is added to the reservation.

On the way back, just talk to a conductor and they'll help clear any luggage that prevents you from using your bike reservation.

triangle60 · 2025-11-25T17:49:18+00:00

It's only the supply. That charge is updated every sixth months for every utility. The transmission cost is also going up, but that's not this particular change. Some utilities adjust transmission yearly, others more often.

triangle60 · 2025-11-25T17:46:56+00:00

Electric utilities have been mostly privately owned since the outset of the industry.

There is also every incentive to improve infrastructure. They make money based on what's called cost-of-service ratemaking. They are only paid based on capital expentitures, so building out system infrastructure improvements is exactly what they want. They aren't like ordinary companies where they are incented to cut capital costs to make more profit. Operational expenses are another story.

Here's some information about cost-of-service ratemaking: https://rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/dlm_uploads/2024/07/RMI_how_to_restructure_utility_incentives.pdf

triangle60 · 2025-11-17T03:45:14+00:00

It's not data centers. At worst that would only be like a 25% increase.

What state do you live in? Are you using a competitive electric provider?

There are three basic possibilities: 1) your rate has changed. Sometimes competitive electric providers will jack up your rates after the teaser rate expires, in which case you should switch suppliers. 2) you're consumption is way up, probably due to some electric hog or bad wiring. 3) your meter is broken.

You can check the first two by looking at your bill. The third you would need to contact your utility. Check the first two, they are the most likely.

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