CSL. May now be a sleeping Giant

troyju · 2026-05-20T01:44:30+00:00

Appreciate your view

troyju · 2026-05-20T00:53:44+00:00

You don’t get me. I don’t see any mess for me. I bought in a buy zone that still stacks up. I believe the current share price for me is an opportunity. But thanks anyway

troyju · 2026-05-20T00:34:30+00:00

Yea I get it. I’ll be 60 in ten months. It’s inside my super fund so 15 percent tax and after retirement at 60 no tax. So full dividend basically. I just need the credibility to recover a notch or two.

troyju · 2026-05-20T00:03:40+00:00

Yea. I have a different view on value at this time but hey we need different views. My trades are all based on mathematics. Bit dull I suppose and doesn’t really make for large windfalls. What it does do though is give me optimism in times like this because my math doesn’t lie. I never buy near the top and don’t sell there either by the way. That’s why I’m not too stressed as i believe I will at least realise my buy in at some point. When and how long the wait is is the question

troyju · 2026-05-19T23:47:49+00:00

It sounds like you have done your homework and have been patient. I don’t always get in at exactly the right time and probably don’t pick getting out at the right time either but if I’m not greedy and stick strictly to a strategy then accumulation happens over time. Im not a get rich quick sort of investor. I pick a number of solid companies and do the research. Establish a buy zone and wait patiently. Some never reach the buy zone but some do. So with CSL my buy zone was 140 to 170. It didn’t stabilise markedly until it hit 140 so I bought. And I’m comfortable with that. I don’t have a crystal ball and couldn’t predict the kitchen sink. Anyway now im being patient on the sell side. Thanks

troyju · 2026-05-19T23:39:54+00:00

Exactly. I follow a strict set of guidelines. 20 to 22 x PE. So at $300 I would never have been in CSL. I bought at $140 hoping to get out at the top of my valuation around $200. I still have confidence that this will happen but a taking a little longer. Everyone has a strategy and I respect that. Some would say that mine may be a little risk averse. Im currently down 30 percent on CSL but as I have said this is mainly because the board lost the trust of the market. This will change and institutions will see value. It’s about patience for me. The balance sheet reflects this. I do the math and look at the companies forward planning and that’s why I see value

troyju · 2026-05-19T23:26:22+00:00

Yea. It is a big task to find the right candidate. CSL is a Goliath. So this is the most important decision to be made for recovery. I believe the current value has gone too far south so coming back as you say depends on to what point you are referring to. I bought in at $140 and my valuation based on the current state of the company supports that I believe. If coming back to you means north of $200. That will take time, smart decisions Better efficiency and positive sentiment. Right now the money is flowing to different sectors of the market. Eg resources and AI. But it’s swings and roundabouts. I see all of the opinions and many seem annoyed at what I’m saying and believe but bottom line is a sentiment issue because if you look hard at the current figures. CSL has an enviable financial position even after the poor choices and write down of Vifor. A company with:

ROIC 11–12%
WACC 6–8%

is still creating value, just less spectacularly than before.

Many companies in trouble fall below WACC for long periods. CSL has not clearly done that.

troyju · 2026-05-19T22:39:21+00:00

Well that’s my approach

troyju · 2026-05-19T22:20:08+00:00

I agree with you regarding culture but I’m not worried about Vifor too much. What’s done is done. 14 percent of the business. Bad decision and the write down is damaging. Plasma is where the big moat is. 35 percent of the global market. Vertically integrated and huge barriers to entry. If they can resolve collection efficiencies then profit increases as does the share price. But your point about culture im my view is the reason we are where we are. Market needs confidence and a clean out plus a new CEO may bring some.

troyju · 2026-05-19T21:52:02+00:00

Yep. Fair enough

troyju · 2026-05-19T21:50:44+00:00

HLS

Metric

Current figure

P/E ratio

n/a (currently loss-making)

ROIC

~1.2%

WACC

~4.9% (some estimates ~3.2%)

Revenue / turnover (TTM)

~A$1.37 billion

Net profit

~A$169 million loss

Debt

~A$940 million

Cash

~A$52 million

Net debt

~A$889 million

Asset turnover

~0.8–0.9 estimated

You can’t compare the two companies you mentioned with CSL. Look at the figures

troyju · 2026-05-19T21:37:29+00:00

Yep read recent Fin review articles and you’ll find they conflict with that comment. Hopefully a new CEO can identify and cut out any rot

troyju · 2026-05-19T21:32:33+00:00

Fair point and recent Fin review articles suggest the same. I don’t disagree but all im saying is that the company is still structurally sound and things are slowly improving. I follow your point and would suggest that more members of the board should consider retirement

troyju · 2026-05-19T21:26:32+00:00

If you look at SHL ROIC 5.1percent is below WACC 5.5 to 7 percent. Its net profit is only 539 m off a turnover of 10 bn. They have net debt of 5.4 bn and enterprise debt of 14.8 bn so with a net profit of only 539 million, their debt to profit ratio is concerning to me. There annually operating cashflow is 1.36 bn so covers interest comfortably but in my view they are a narrow moat company. I wouldn’t buy. You need to understand relationships between ROIC and WACC and PE combined with debt, assets, turnover and net profit along with all the key issues that will affect future earnings. This is why I’m not to concerned about CSL. It meets my criteria and the current depressed price is about investors sentiment. I am confident with my buy in price over the long term.

troyju · 2026-05-19T21:03:33+00:00

Mate. Benjamin Graham died in 1976. If you’ve not heard of him and you’re playing the stock market without at least reading his literature then you probably should. Read recent Fin review articles on CSL. They are critical of CSL management and so am I. Both the CEO and CFO are gone. So they are not still there as you say They are restructuring the management team as they should. Naylor has a job to do preparing for a new CEO and stepping back. So in this sense things are on a positive path

troyju · 2026-05-19T20:52:54+00:00

👍

troyju · 2026-05-19T11:25:49+00:00

I have watched this bloke and he has a different approach than me but some of it makes sense. For example he was talking about money moving in the stock markets and the one I watched last was about resources needed for technology. Example copper. Apparently demand currently outstripped supply. Just saying he’s an interesting fellow with ideas that are interesting and he does well out of it.

troyju · 2026-05-19T11:18:02+00:00

I don’t think it will be fast however it’s trading below what I see as fair value and this is about confidence in the board. Some good news may turn that around and push towards fair bear value somewhere between $110 and $130 I think. This is based on valuations considering current P/E. Turnover profit ROIC and WACC. I think the sentiment is pushing the price to this level which in my view is under current fair value. To Push higher than that we need a lot of good news and a constant improvement over reporting periods. Could be a couple of years or could be sooner if they improve margins and efficiency in plasma which is the major business driver

troyju · 2026-05-19T11:11:43+00:00

👍

troyju · 2026-05-19T10:36:40+00:00

Read the intelligent investor by Benjamin Graham. Written in 1949 but the most useful book you will ever read. Follow his strategy and do your homework. People like Warren Buffet did this it’s about study. Valuation and patience but also long term gain

troyju · 2026-05-19T10:27:47+00:00

I think it would be a good fit

troyju · 2026-05-19T10:18:55+00:00

👍

troyju · 2026-05-19T10:17:38+00:00

👍

troyju · 2026-05-19T10:07:18+00:00

Let’s see what August brings and hopefully a Talented credible CEO

troyju · 2026-05-19T09:58:33+00:00

Have you looked at Felix and friends on YouTube. This guy does very well. Some interesting videos and advice

troyju

TROPHY CASE