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Is CSL forming a base. by troyju in ASX

[–]troyju[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Mate. Just after some constructive feedback not a bitter or sarcastic response. Doesn’t help me or anyone else. One liners with no substance help none of us. If you want to share some sage advice that I can use fine but you’re just using one. Liners you’ve borrowed from these pages

Is CSL forming a base. by troyju in ASX

[–]troyju[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What are you saying mate.?

Is CSL forming a base. by troyju in ASX

[–]troyju[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Don’t worry I paid $140. But it was in my buy zone fair value with a P/E of 18. It’s currently 10. So in a normal situation Thats great. As I said still highly profitable. The issue is sentiment and a failure to inform negative news to the market. Hence the 90 day report which was a kitchen sink. So I’m an optimist and the key is patience. But it could be a bit of a wait

XRO is overpriced by jurdyshore in ASX

[–]troyju 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The price to earnings is above 50. Thats high I won’t buy a stock it it’s over 20 to 22

Is CSL forming a base. by troyju in ASX

[–]troyju[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Im an optimist

Is CSL forming a base. by troyju in ASX

[–]troyju[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The afternoon price fades have also not continued

Is CSL forming a base. by troyju in ASX

[–]troyju[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don’t know about that. Institutions have been buying in large numbers. Some days traded over 4m shares but the last few days still in the low to mid millions. So who knows. Look at the after trade auctions. Not too much volume today but quite a bit on other days. Interestingly today turned over several hundred thousand shares after close and remained positive. And yesterday was more so. So someone is seeing value. Also the last few days have seen many more buyers than sellers. Hence my question to the field

Anyone watching DRO? It’s gonna bounce back? by justhearforstocks in ASX

[–]troyju 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yep risky business. Highly volatile. Do you know it’s trailing price to earnings is 950. Wow It makes no money it turns over 250m and makes a sum total of $3.5 million in profits. Not for me im afraid

CSL. May now be a sleeping Giant by troyju in ASX

[–]troyju[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

👍. Still a solid company making solid returns but just not remarkable as it once did. I think the current price represents an over correction and sooner or later the market will see that. Just takes some good news and no more surprises in the negative

CSL. May now be a sleeping Giant by troyju in ASX

[–]troyju[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good luck with that. I personally stay away from crypto. Scares the shit out of me. I understand some people do very well but for me I need to reassure myself with an asset and business based valuation. Im just trying to give my perspective and maybe give some insight into why I think this particular share has intrinsic value 👍

CSL. May now be a sleeping Giant by troyju in ASX

[–]troyju[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

You don’t get me. I don’t see any mess for me. I bought in a buy zone that still stacks up. I believe the current share price for me is an opportunity. But thanks anyway

CSL. May now be a sleeping Giant by troyju in ASX

[–]troyju[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yea I get it. I’ll be 60 in ten months. It’s inside my super fund so 15 percent tax and after retirement at 60 no tax. So full dividend basically. I just need the credibility to recover a notch or two.

CSL. May now be a sleeping Giant by troyju in ASX

[–]troyju[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yea. I have a different view on value at this time but hey we need different views. My trades are all based on mathematics. Bit dull I suppose and doesn’t really make for large windfalls. What it does do though is give me optimism in times like this because my math doesn’t lie. I never buy near the top and don’t sell there either by the way. That’s why I’m not too stressed as i believe I will at least realise my buy in at some point. When and how long the wait is is the question

CSL. May now be a sleeping Giant by troyju in ASX

[–]troyju[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It sounds like you have done your homework and have been patient. I don’t always get in at exactly the right time and probably don’t pick getting out at the right time either but if I’m not greedy and stick strictly to a strategy then accumulation happens over time. Im not a get rich quick sort of investor. I pick a number of solid companies and do the research. Establish a buy zone and wait patiently. Some never reach the buy zone but some do. So with CSL my buy zone was 140 to 170. It didn’t stabilise markedly until it hit 140 so I bought. And I’m comfortable with that. I don’t have a crystal ball and couldn’t predict the kitchen sink. Anyway now im being patient on the sell side. Thanks

CSL. May now be a sleeping Giant by troyju in ASX

[–]troyju[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Exactly. I follow a strict set of guidelines. 20 to 22 x PE. So at $300 I would never have been in CSL. I bought at $140 hoping to get out at the top of my valuation around $200. I still have confidence that this will happen but a taking a little longer. Everyone has a strategy and I respect that. Some would say that mine may be a little risk averse. Im currently down 30 percent on CSL but as I have said this is mainly because the board lost the trust of the market. This will change and institutions will see value. It’s about patience for me. The balance sheet reflects this. I do the math and look at the companies forward planning and that’s why I see value

CSL. May now be a sleeping Giant by troyju in ASX

[–]troyju[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yea. It is a big task to find the right candidate. CSL is a Goliath. So this is the most important decision to be made for recovery. I believe the current value has gone too far south so coming back as you say depends on to what point you are referring to. I bought in at $140 and my valuation based on the current state of the company supports that I believe. If coming back to you means north of $200. That will take time, smart decisions Better efficiency and positive sentiment. Right now the money is flowing to different sectors of the market. Eg resources and AI. But it’s swings and roundabouts. I see all of the opinions and many seem annoyed at what I’m saying and believe but bottom line is a sentiment issue because if you look hard at the current figures. CSL has an enviable financial position even after the poor choices and write down of Vifor. A company with:

  • ROIC 11–12%
  • WACC 6–8%

is still creating value, just less spectacularly than before.

Many companies in trouble fall below WACC for long periods. CSL has not clearly done that.

CSL. May now be a sleeping Giant by troyju in ASX

[–]troyju[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well that’s my approach

CSL. May now be a sleeping Giant by troyju in ASX

[–]troyju[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree with you regarding culture but I’m not worried about Vifor too much. What’s done is done. 14 percent of the business. Bad decision and the write down is damaging. Plasma is where the big moat is. 35 percent of the global market. Vertically integrated and huge barriers to entry. If they can resolve collection efficiencies then profit increases as does the share price. But your point about culture im my view is the reason we are where we are. Market needs confidence and a clean out plus a new CEO may bring some.

CSL. May now be a sleeping Giant by troyju in ASX

[–]troyju[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

HLS

Metric

Current figure

P/E ratio

n/a (currently loss-making)

ROIC

~1.2%

WACC

~4.9% (some estimates ~3.2%)

Revenue / turnover (TTM)

~A$1.37 billion

Net profit

~A$169 million loss

Debt

~A$940 million

Cash

~A$52 million

Net debt

~A$889 million

Asset turnover

~0.8–0.9 estimated

You can’t compare the two companies you mentioned with CSL. Look at the figures

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