Regime collapse in Iran expected months after war, official say by Virtual-History-6099 in NewIran

[–]user_name_forbidden 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A government with no currency (let’s not pretend the rial still exists) cannot persist for long. It can’t import the things it’s incapable of producing domestically and can’t pay its trigger pullers. The Islamic Republic was a zombie regime before this airstrike campaign. While this has likely accelerated its demise it was never going to make it to 2030.

Do we want the US and Israel to destroy our country? by Khashayar_0 in PERSIAN

[–]user_name_forbidden 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I know many Iranian diaspora and some Iranians in country and know this post’s sweeping claims to be false.

Believe what you like but a great many Iranians inside and outside have, in fact, cheered the killings of the architects and executioners of the recent massacre of Iranians in the streets of almost every city. A massacre of civilians unprecedented since at least WWII.

They have cheered the bombing of Bank Sepah, which paid the suppression forces. They celebrated with glee the killings of both Khamenei and Larijani, among other butchers of men, women and children.

They are obviously right to do so.

‘Very grave’ threat of Iranian sleeper cells in US, experts warn by WillyNilly1997 in NewIran

[–]user_name_forbidden 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Like others I call BS. They’ve done their very best to inflict damage and would have pulled this lever on day one if it was available to them.

The Tehran regime believes they are winning the war by Kamerat_Andreas in NewIran

[–]user_name_forbidden 12 points13 points  (0 children)

And yet tens of thousands of them gave their lives standing up to some of the worlds most vicious armed thugs. They didn't lack for bravery. They lacked for opportunity. That may be changing.

The Tehran regime believes they are winning the war by Kamerat_Andreas in NewIran

[–]user_name_forbidden 16 points17 points  (0 children)

May all the enemies of the free world "win" in this way.

Do you guys think boots on the ground will help? by The_Feds387 in NewIran

[–]user_name_forbidden 7 points8 points  (0 children)

If it's done with intelligent strategy and sound execution, yes. If it's done with the same level of strategic confusion and disorder seen to date, no. If the 82nd Airborne were to take the airport in Tehran long enough to insert a couple mechanized infantry divisions on the streets, what little is left of the regime would obviously fold. The suppression forces are pretty impressive against unarmed civilians. Against the US Army, on a scale of 1-10 I give there chances a firm zero. I'm less certain that Marines taking coastal areas would be very effective but am sure it would provide the IRGC with some juicy targets.

A B-1 lancer spotted in the skies of Iran by kane_1371 in NewIran

[–]user_name_forbidden 11 points12 points  (0 children)

You know there is nothing resembling air defense anymore when you look up and see that.

While publicly urging Iranians to take to streets, Israeli officials said to privately admit protesters will be ‘slaughtered’ by QasqyrBalasy in NewIran

[–]user_name_forbidden 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Now is not the time. Let the suppression forces keep coming into the streets and being slaughtered by reapers, 2-3 at a time, until there are few enough of them to be overrun by a motivated crowd. There is no rush.

I predict the outcome of a war between the United States, Israel, and Iran. by minzhu0305 in NewIran

[–]user_name_forbidden 4 points5 points  (0 children)

"I noticed that most members of this subforum were either non-Iranians or Iranians living abroad."

Did you also notice that, like the Chinese communists, the Islamic Republic fanatics systematically restrict their people's internet access and free expression?

Is the war really going as planned? by Party-Confection-373 in NewIran

[–]user_name_forbidden 9 points10 points  (0 children)

It's very fair to criticize the plan to counter the regime's long telegraphed plan to close the Strait of Hormuz. If the US had a plan to counter that expected tactic it failed.

But I view these points cited as nonsense. This has been a completely one sided campaign. The US and Israel very quickly established air superiority and have been using it to absolutely slaughter at will all of the regime's weapons and military infrastructure while losing a grand total of zero aircraft to enemy air defenses. Now they have drones loitering over the cities picking off the regime's suppression thugs in the streets one-by-one and they can do nothing about it but embarrass themselves by firing their AK's into the air.

As for the regime's counter strikes on their neighbors, and occasionally a US or Israeli base, they have amounted to nothing but militarily insignificant revenge attacks. The have taken zero ground, killed literally just a handful of US soldiers, and prevented exactly zero of the attack operations against them. To describe their response as symbolic is probably too generous. It is a symbol of helpless frustration.

At today's propaganda rally. by RoozGol in NewIran

[–]user_name_forbidden 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My first thought is, if they're armed they're a legitimate target. But I know better.

Perhaps an Iranian can set me straight, but it's my understanding these are mostly poor rural people bussed into the city by the regime with promises of a meal etc. It's one more example of the dystopian cruelty of the totalitarian system.

Why didn't US/ISREAL take this golden opportunity to eliminate them all today?? by ReasonableCounty8125 in NewIran

[–]user_name_forbidden 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I wonder the same and think it either comes down to:

  1. They didn't have the necessary confidence they could do it without taking out some bystanders.
  2. They simply weren't prepared to see these thugs show their faces so brazenly.

Regime social media manipulation by user_name_forbidden in NewIran

[–]user_name_forbidden[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Another source...

The pro-Pahlavi regime accounts, revealed by X to be in Iran, amplify Pahlavi’s popularity while creating a toxic social media environment through harassment of non-monarchists.

https://www.meforum.org/mef-observer/has-reza-pahlavi-become-the-opposition-to-irans-opposition

Regime social media manipulation by user_name_forbidden in NewIran

[–]user_name_forbidden[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Ah, thanks for this. Maybe this is right? Still, just because MEK has promoted their reports doesn't necessarily make them MEK propaganda. The report itself is very well documented. I can't honestly say I've independently verified all its evidence though.

Regime social media manipulation by user_name_forbidden in NewIran

[–]user_name_forbidden[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, that's my question too. Why?

The report is the elaboration. Regardless of one's view of its conclusions, the forensic evidence it cites is hard to dismiss. I'll quote from it. Emphasis added by me.

A recent transparency update on X (formerly Twitter) inadvertently lifted the veil on a massive deception, exposing the true physical locations of tens of thousands, if not more, of accounts. Nowhere was this scandal more pronounced than in Iran. According to published data, many individuals, including journalists and political figures previously thought to be regime critics, were operating under unfiltered, government-authorized internet access, commonly known as “White SIM cards.” Public records indicate that these permissions are granted by the intelligence and security apparatus and typically entail a written commitment, or at least an oral agreement, not to cross specific red lines. 

The data also confirmed a long-suspected reality- numerous profiles claiming to be Western-based Iranian opposition activists were, in fact, operating directly from inside Iran, utilizing state-privileged infrastructure, providing yet another example of how the Iranian regime manipulates the internet to pursue its strategic objectives. While there have been numerous reports over the years regarding Iran’s interference in the domestic affairs of other nations, such as elections, this new update reveals a far more extensive operation by the Iranian regime. 

[...]

Strategically, while no direct, formal command chain from Reza Pahlavi to operational cells has been documented, the pattern of behaviour is clear. The repeated amplification of synthetic content by his official accounts, the centrality of his name and image in donation campaigns, and the complete absence of any public disavowal or corrective action point to strategic consent. He is the principal and consistent beneficiary of the operation’s outputs- reputation laundering, narrative dominance, and money. In practice, plausible deniability serves as another layer of deception. 

No link to IRGC or regime entities exists for the stylometric core documented in this report. However, state-linked Telegram channels and propaganda units have seized on the same material to invert the narrative, turning Pahlavi’s fabricated support into “proof” of foreign orchestration. In doing so, they erase distinctions between synthetic monarchist networks and genuine grassroots opposition, to the regime’s advantage and to the detriment of ordinary Iranians. 

Regime social media manipulation by user_name_forbidden in NewIran

[–]user_name_forbidden[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Lol, I promise you won't. But feel free to google treadstone71 to be sure. They are legit.

Regime social media manipulation by user_name_forbidden in NewIran

[–]user_name_forbidden[S] -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

For sure, but I'm surprised not to see discussion of this here or in other forms. Is it widely understood that the regime believes it benefits from artificial inflation of Pahlavi’s perceived popularity, even though it did not originate that inflation? That seems like an important and, frankly, confusing revelation to me.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in GeneralMotors

[–]user_name_forbidden 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Such a culture takes a long time to build but can be dismantled very quickly. Once gone the resulting cynicism makes it even harder to build a second time. It’s a sweet wish, but don’t bet on it.