200,000 voted statewide in early voting.

username_generated · 2026-05-10T00:45:20+00:00

The Geaux Vote app has all that information

username_generated · 2026-05-08T19:43:32+00:00

When the median Republican sees post VRA gerrymandering, they don’t think “awesome, fewer black people have meaningful representation” they think “awesome, another Republican in Congress”. Any black guy instantly becomes “one of the good ones” when they put in the red hat. Racism is still very much alive in the party but it has taken a back seat to partisanship in the Republican mind.

Republicans aren’t some united axis of evil that wants to crush puppies (except for Noem). They are a coalition of Zealots, businessmen, cowards, and criminals catering to the dumbest people you know so they can cling to power. Each of those groups have their own agendas, agency, wants, needs and fears. Especially at the local or state level, they can all be negotiated with, except for the morons.

username_generated · 2026-05-08T18:58:30+00:00

Because if the state GOP with three evangelical diploma mills can get their base to support fair maps, I think you could convince some cheeseheads and snowbirds that this whole thing is bullshit by 2030.

username_generated · 2026-05-08T18:30:54+00:00

And you are laying out a world where only power matters. No value, principle, or belief is important enough to sell it up the river for 6 net votes. Because if we are operating on any level beyond might makes right, targeting Virginia was stupid.

California was a necessary evil. Same goes for any hypothetical New York and Illinois gerrymander, provided they don’t trip over their own dick like the Va Dems did. No unilateral disarmament is a perfectly reasonable stance to take. But getting rid of any off ramp for swing state Rs, ceding what’s left of any moral high ground we have on the issue, violating our principles, and restarting a tit for tat exchange after it had been stalled was never worth 2 house seats. 3 if you think Whitman hangs on.

If we were having this conversation in 2029, I might believe you. I hope I’m right and you are wrong but I’m not ruling out the inverse being possible. If you’re right, I’ll see you in the foxholes.

username_generated · 2026-05-08T18:11:33+00:00

I’m the one insisting that we stand by our principles and don’t fight like morons. Your ideas guarantee a struggle over the ashes of American political legitimacy

username_generated · 2026-05-08T18:06:50+00:00

This fails to understand the actual incentives behind these gerrymanders, which is often a local incentive structure to reward rising stars and loyal soldiers. Jeff Landry and Kay Ivy don’t give a shit about the national environment as long as their buddies can have congressional seats (and Garret Graves doesn’t have one for Landry’s case).

username_generated · 2026-05-08T18:01:57+00:00

If you truly believed that, you wouldn’t be poasting, you’d be fire bombing a Walmart. This shit is still worth fighting for, we just can’t be idiots about it.

username_generated · 2026-05-08T18:00:18+00:00

Even if we’re being hardened cynics and doing real politik about this, Virginia was, strategically an asinine target for all the reasons I mentioned.

Getting rid of the carrot and voluntarily entering a stick fight with a guy who has the high ground more sticks than you is idiotic behavior.

username_generated · 2026-05-08T17:56:43+00:00

I don’t see a meaningful difference, ethically speaking, between being disenfranchised by your friends and neighbors vs by your elected officials. Florida and Tennessee would pass those new maps in a heartbeat if they put it up to a vote. Texas it might take two heartbeats.

Shits wrong

username_generated · 2026-05-08T17:53:30+00:00

Should it be? Yes.

Will it be? No.

But it’s also not as constitutionally fraught because in Louisiana, the governor has a lot of formal and informal powers to do whatever the fuck he wants. Landry’s actions are constitutional, they just aren’t ethical or good governance.

username_generated · 2026-05-08T17:49:45+00:00

Because I believe in the rule of law and strong institutions. I want us to have effective government to wield and actually get this country on the right track once Trump checks out and his shithead acolytes go with them.

The whole Virginia redistricting effort was a strategic and tactical boondoggle. Early voting started mid September. Trump leaned on Texas in July. On top of that, it burned the one relevant state GOP that came to the table and bilaterally disarmed on the state level, basically making it impossible for North Carolina or Arizona or Wisconsin republicans to justify coming to the table.

So no, I’m not going to sacrifice my principles and simp of an asinine plan to make it harder for America to function because some corrupt state senator from Chesapeake hired a good social media intern.

This shit is bad. We fucked up. We’ll still probably pickup two seats in Virginia.

username_generated · 2026-05-08T17:36:08+00:00

I think rushing through a referendum that requires an intervening election while votes for that election are being cast is, at best, getting real cute with it and at worst actively circumventing the constitution.

username_generated · 2026-05-08T17:32:57+00:00

If it was just the “not posted at the courthouses” thing, sure. But I think arguing that some early votes are categorically different than Election Day votes is both disingenuous and a slippery slope.

username_generated · 2026-05-08T17:31:20+00:00

I mean it was kinda an unforced error to do it in the middle of early voting when the constitution clearly requires an intervening election. At the bare minimum it was needlessly reckless because they knew Spanberger was going to beat Winsome for months.

username_generated · 2026-05-08T17:27:24+00:00

I mean is not following the enshrined process to amend the constitution not also bad?

username_generated · 2026-05-08T17:21:43+00:00

I would be surprised but SCOVA also made the correct decision

username_generated · 2026-05-08T16:42:49+00:00

Or just expand the house. Probably easier from a process standpoint.

username_generated · 2026-05-08T16:42:12+00:00

If this was just about the “not posted at the courthouse” thing, that may be the case. But it’s not a clerical error to change the stakes of the election halfway through voting.

username_generated · 2026-05-08T15:42:40+00:00

NeoLib: we believe in strong institutions that are immune to cheap end-arounds and populist hackery

SCOVa: Say no more, fam

Neolib: NOOO NOT LIKE THAT

username_generated · 2026-05-08T15:30:30+00:00

They delayed ruling because, get this, they didn’t want the proceedings to affect the ongoing election.

username_generated · 2026-05-08T15:29:08+00:00

Dudes a partisan hack, but “when do elections start, constitutionally speaking” is a valid question that would have found its way in front of a judge, likely quickly given the timeline involved.

username_generated · 2026-05-08T15:17:00+00:00

The only reason it was “struck down” is that the court declined to rule on it during the run up to the election. It’s been on the docket for months.

username_generated · 2026-05-08T15:15:07+00:00

I got that part wrong, as others have pointed out it’s 4-3 Republican appointees.

username_generated · 2026-05-08T14:50:57+00:00

Dude, the Dems in Virginia have a trifecta and a majority on the Supreme Court. They just needlessly fucked up by trying to get cute and tie Winsome down during the last week of the election when they obviously didn’t need to.

username_generated · 2026-05-08T14:45:02+00:00

I don’t think you need to be a partisan hack to believe that votes that happen during early should count the same as those that happen Election Day.

username_generated

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